Course Overview
Waialae Country Club is the one and only host course for the Sony Open which has historically started the PGA Tour season since 1965. It’s a short 7,000 yard par 70 course with fairways 20 yards narrower than the 50 yard wide fairways featured last week at the Tournament of Champions. The greens are much smaller in size as well but they’re flatter and harder. You’ll need a solid approach game so look for guys who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and Proximity to Hole. Being a par 70, par 4 scoring is going to be importantly but most importantly Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 yards of which there are 6 on the course. It’s also worth noting that all 3 par 5s are short and reachable for about everyone. Drivers don’t have much of an advantage here but luckily for them it’s not terribly hard to scramble out of the rough here. The bermuda greens are slicker than the soft, sloping greens featured last week and we’ve seen good putters at the top of the leaderboard for the last several years here. Target good putters and ball strikers here and you should be looking good come Sunday
High End Plays
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000)
Matsuyama kept his incredible streak of top 3 finishes going with a 2nd place finish last week at the Tournament of Champions. By now you’d figure everyone would be on him but there’s one huge snag with him this week- terrible course history. His 4 starts here consist of a 78th and 3 missed cuts. While that’s pretty bad, those missed cuts all came early on in his career and I’m willing to overlook course history for current form here. His course history could keep his ownership in check and honestly he fits the mold of what you want here outside of putting. He’s an elite ball striker and he’s great at scoring in the short par 4 range.
Jimmy Walker ($9,900)
He was my top pick last week and was looking good after day 1, leading the field by 2 strokes. He regressed to a T9 finish but I’m still not worried about him- especially at his best course. He won this event in 2014 and 2015 with a T13 here last year and a T4 in 2011. He ranks as by far the best in the field at short par 5 scoring and those are the only par 5s on this course. Most scoring is done on par 5s so he makes for a no brainer play.
Paul Casey ($9,500)
Before Matsuyama started doing his thing only Rory McIlroy could compete with Casey’s sheer dominance. He finished the season with two T2 finishes and started the swing season off with T3, T21, and T12 finishes. He’s obviously in supreme form but he hasn’t golfed in a couple months. That’s my only real concern with him. I think he’s a perfect fit for the course, he destroys greens in regulation and drives the ball with accuracy. He has a well-rounded game with no real weaknesses. I like him as a core play over spending up on the likes of Spieth or Thomas.
Mid Range Plays
Marc Leishman ($8,200)
Leishman is a steady grinder and week to week cash game option, so why not take him on one of his best courses? He’s never missed the cut in 7 tries here and finished top 30 in 6 of those. He’s also been in steady form with a top 25 at the OHL Classic and a top 5 finish overseas at the CIMB classic. He’s one of my favorite cash game plays and he’s never over-owned in tournaments.
Pat Perez ($8,000)
Perez was hot garbage last year missing cut after cut after cut. Obviously something has changed and his game has reverted back to his old ways, and then some. After a top 10 showing at the Shriners Open he won the OHL at Mayakoba and rose to a T3 finish last week after a red hot Sunday vaulted him up the leaderboard. He’s also made 8 straight cuts at Waialae including 2 top 10s so sign me up for some Perez. Is it the hair? Yes, it is absolutely the hair.
Charles Howell III ($7,800)
DraftKings messed this up. His price is wrong, just wrong. He’s easily going to be far and away the highest owned player and will basically be a free space in your lineup. He’s always a chalky play week to week but this course is where he cashes in every year. He’s never missed a cut in 15 tries and he has 5 top 8 finishes since 2009. He’s also been in excellent form during the swing season posting 3 top 15 finishes in full field events. Set him and forget him.
Chris Kirk ($7,700)
Kirk ended the season on a roll and kept that going through the swing season with 3 top 10 finishes. He’s pretty good at this course making 5/6 cuts with 2 top 5s to boot. He’s the exact kind of accuracy guy you want to target here and he destroys the target range of par 4s 400-450 yards. I think he makes a great pivot off of a play for the same price that I don’t like- Luke List. Everyone will see List has 4 straight top 15 finishes and will pile on him but he is a pure bomber with no driving or iron accuracy to speak of. He’s also missed the cut in both of his attempts here so he’s a trap! I also like Kevin Na a lot as another pivot off List.
Value Plays
Hudson Swafford ($7,000)
Swafford is a bomber, but he’s not your usual bomber. He’s the rare bomber that’s also accurate- he’s just great at his driving game all around. He’s used his hot driver to the tune of 17 cuts made in a row. He’s played this course 3 times with 2 top 10 finishes. He’s going to be heavily owned especially in cash but he should be well worth it, especially at this price.
Webb Simpson ($6,800)
Simpson is going to be heavily owned as well, another case of pricing being just dead wrong. His approach game is elite and he ranks 4th in the entire field in our Efficiency Scoring projections since he’s phenomenal in all the key ranges. He’s made 7/7 cuts here with 3 straight top 20 finishes. Buyer beware- he’s bad at putting like bad bad. Plus he’s going to be super popular. He’s also burned us the last 2 times he’s gone to courses he has insane course history at so I’m personally going to fade him (or at least limit my exposure) to pivot away from the field but he’s really set up to be a strong, cheap play.
Jerry Kelly ($6,800)
Kelly is going to be my primary pivot since I think he’ll be lower owned and just as good. He has 5 top 10 finishes since 2008 and it’s no surprise given his statistics and course fit. He’s among the Tour leaders year to year in both Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation %. He can scramble pretty well and he actually gets a lot of birdies for an accuracy player.
Tim Wilkinson ($6,100)
With all the mid-range value you probably shouldn’t need to go this low at all but if you do I like Wilkinson for one main reason- you remember that key range of Par 4 400-450 yards? Yeah he ranks #1 in the field in that range.
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