Course Overview
This is another multi-course event but unlike the madness that was last week, there are only 2 courses- Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South. The North course will be played once on either Thursday or Friday while the South Course will be played 3 times including both of the final rounds.
Torrey Pines North
The North course is a short, 7,000 yard par 72 that features the beautiful, yet dangerous, Torrey Pine coastline and it was actually redesigned this year to swap the front nine with the back nine so golfers would finish in scenery. While the course is a shorter one with 4 par 5s under 550 yards, the fairways are on the narrower side making it a bit of an accuracy course. Proximity to Hole will be key here with very small 4,500 square foot greens. It’s hard to factor this course in very much however since 3 of the rounds will be played on the South course, so that’s the one that really needs to be focused on.
Torrey Pines South
The South course played as the 2nd hardest course on Tour last year due to 2 major factors- 1. A storm with gale-force winds devastated golfers (except for Brandt Snedeker) on the weekend and 2. It’s the longest course on Tour at almost 7,700 yards. These factors combined to forced an average score of 2.5 strokes over par, only behind the US Open Oakmont course in difficulty. Obviously Driving Distance is going to be huge here, but with fairways on the narrow side, added driving accuracy is going to be incredibly helpful. If you can’t hit the fairways or the greens, you can be bailed out with a good Scrambling/SG: Around the Green game. The stimp meter plays at a 12 compared to the North Course’s 10.5 so greens will be a lot slicker than its counterparts but the greens are also much bigger and easier to hit. The weather looks to be pretty good this weekend so don’t expect a repeat of last year. Seek out your long bombers with a solid all-around game to support it and you’re gonna do alright.
Tiger Woods Plays
Tiger Woods ($7,900)
TIGER’S BACK!!!!!!!! Well he technically came back at the Hero but that super tiny field in the Bahamas shouldn’t really count. This is his first full field event since sitting out all of last year and he picked a fitting course to return to. Tiger’s won here 7 times including a streak from 2005-2008 where he was just running up the scoreboard year after year. He tied the course record in 2000 in a shootout over Phil Mickelson. Last we knew from Tiger’s 2015 season he still has some distance in him but his Driving Accuracy was wildly innacurate. We don’t really know what to expect from him so just sprinkle him in a lineup or two juuuust in case.
High End Plays
Jason Day ($11,400)
The current world #1 golfer has a strong course history here if you look past last year’s missed cut. He won in 2015, finished runner up in 2014, and posted a T9 in 2013. He’s probably going to be lower owned than the guys below him in this range so he makes for a good tournament play but I’d steer clear in cash due to his extremely poor driving accuracy. He does make up for it with good scrambling and putting but it’s risky.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,200)
Matsuyama has missed his last 2 cuts here but he just proved at the Sony Open that his form is so good it can override poor course history. His putter was far from good last time out but everything about his tee to green game is just magnificent. If he can get his putter rolling at just under average the rest of his game will vault him up the leaderboard once again.
Dustin Johnson ($11,100)
Bomber course + DJ = $$$. Wayne Gretzky’s son-in-law is fresh off of a T2 finish at Abu Dhabi last week so jet lag would be the only thing that could slow him down this week. He’s the best driver in the game and he’s developed above average accuracy to go along with it. He’s above average in every facet of his game right now and he hits a ton of birdies. His only missed cut here in 2015 came right as he was re-introducing himself to the sport after his long time off with the cocaine scandal, he’s pretty much perfect otherwise. Fire him up despite the heavy ownership, he was made for this course.
Brooks Koepka ($9,900)
Koepka hasn’t played in a little while but he’s certainly a solid bet here. We saw him take 2nd at the Shriners a few months ago so I’m not worried about form. He drives the ball a mile and is one of the better putters on Tour. His accuracy isn’t great but it’s not terrible like Day’s and the same goes for his approach and short game. He’s a top-tier birdie-maker, better than anyone else in this range.
Brandt Snedeker ($9,500)
If it weren’t for Furyk’s 58 Snedeker’s final round at Torrey Pines would have been the round of the year. With everyone else posting +8s he fought through the windy conditions and managed a 3 under par 69 to come out of nowhere and win. While he’s absolutely not a bomber he’s probably the best at this event in recent years. In the last 7 years he has 5 top 10 finishes including 2 wins and 2 runner ups with only 1 missed cut.
Jon Rahm ($9,200)
Rahm fits the mold as a bomber so this course’s length shouldn’t be as intimidating as it usually would be for someone making their first crack at it. He’s solid tee to green and is a better than average putter, so as long as he can keep it out of the ocean he could have a chance at finally breaking through here.
Mid Range Plays
Gary Woodland ($8,600)
Woodland is another prototypical bomber averaging 306 yards off the tee. His accuracy is just average, which is great for a bomber and his approach/greens in regulation game has been fantastic. He’s been in solid form over the last year consistently making cuts and he’s shown the same tendency at this course with a perfect 7/7 cuts made. He’s been in excellent form over the short term finishing 6th at the Sony Open and 2nd at the OHL Classic. I like him in all formats this week.
J.B. Holmes ($8,200)
J.B. was the only golfer on Tour who drove the ball longer than Dustin Johnson last year averaging 314.5 yards off of the tee. That alone is reason enough to roster him but also consider he finished 6th last year and 2nd the year before that. His Driving Accuracy is to be desired, but outside of that the rest of his game is just acceptable enough to be a strong play, especially at this price.
Brendan Steele ($8,000)
Steele has always been a pretty reliable bomber and his driving accuracy has looked really good in the early season. He’s had a phenomenal start to the season with the win and a T6 finish last week and he’s on a streak of 4 straight cuts made here. At $8,000 he’s an absolute steal.
Hudson Swafford ($7,500)
Swafford made his 19th straight cut last week by freaking winning the tournament and he still can’t get a price bump. It’s always surprising how under-owned he is week in and week out with how cheap he’s been but the word has to be out on him now. Expect him to be pretty chalky especially since Justin Thomas just won back to back weeks before his win. He was tied with Luke List for 7th longest driver on tour last year and combines that with alright accuracy off the tee and good accuracy with his irons. His only downfall has been his scrambling which has been pretty bad but he’s hit enough greens in regulation to negate that. Can he keep it up for 20 straight?
Charles Howell III ($7,300)
After finally getting a much deserved price bump to $9,900 last week DraftKings drops the ball yet again with him and prices him super low at a course he’s a true horse at. He’s made a zillion cuts in a row here with several top 10 finishes just like the last 2 tournaments he’s been in. He’s also finished top 15 in his last 5 tournaments played. Expect him to be the chalk of all chalk but just consider him a free space, play him, and wait for him to hit a course he’s bad at to finally fade him. If you don’t play him in cash games you’re an idiot.
Luke List ($7,200)
Another guy who got a huge price cut for no reason. His streak of 5 straight top 15 finishes almost got pushed to 6 last week until he had a somewhat poor Sunday and finished T41. He’s the 2nd longest on Tour in 2017 behind DJ so he’s exactly what we’re looking for.
Value Plays
Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
Maybe people will have forgotten by now that he ended 2016 on a rampage. He’s a super long bomber who had been posting top 5 finishes at courses he didn’t even fit the mold at. He’s made the cut at every event he played in during the swing season but he hasn’t played in a few months so I love him as a sneaky tournament play.
Scott Stallings ($6,800)
Course horse and former winner here, he won in 2014 and followed that up with a runner up in 2015 and a T25 last year. He finished T8 last week at the CareerBuilder Challenge so he might be rounding into form just in time for his favorite tournament. In addition to distance, he’s demonstrated some incredible scrambling chops recently.
Brian Harman ($6,700)
He’s coming into form recently with 3 top 20 finishes in 5 events including a T3 last week. He’s made 3 straight cuts here to boot. While he’s just average at distance, he’s quite accurate and boasts an incredible putter and short game.
Martin Laird ($6,500)
Laird posts a T9 last week and in return gets an insane price drop. Huge error in pricing here. He has 2 top 10 finishes here and 4 straight cuts made overall. He has a great driver, longer than most and combined with good accuracy. His Greens in Regulation and SG:Approach stats are miles ahead of anyone in this range and he really doesn’t have any statistical downfalls. Elite cash game punt.
Adam Hadwin ($6,200)
Down at the bottom of the barrel we have a guy coming fresh off a T2 finish last week who managed to shoot a 13 under 59 on Friday. Sure he’s not the longest but he’s slightly above average in every statistical category and he’s being priced among the bottom feeders. Thanks for the freebie, pricing algorithm.
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CommercialBank Qatar Masters Picks
High End
Bernd Wiesberger ($11,000) – Now at 8 straight top 7 finishes, low owned last week
Alexander Noren ($10,900) Win machine
Martin Kaymer ($10,800) Chalk
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($10,300) – Chalk, Course horse/superb form
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) – Chalk, insane form, win last week in a strong field
Mid Range
Pablo Larrazabal ($8,500) – On a roll, T13 last year, low owned last week
Peter Hanson ($8,400) – Doesn’t miss cut here, good form, low owned last week
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($8,300) – Amazing last week, no MC here
George Coetzee ($8,200) – Course horse (4 straight top 12)
Thomas Aiken ($8,100) – Cash lock, odds, insane form, good course history
Dean Burmester ($8,000) – Insane form, #1 driver
Thongchai Jaidee ($7,800) – Course horse (7 straight top 33)
Value
Bradley Dredge ($7,400) – T4 last year, good last week and low owned
Gregory Bourdy ($7,400) – Form, course history, driving accuracy
Alejandro Canizares ($7,300) – Form, course history, low owned, great putter
Jason Scrivener ($7,200) – Great form, 0.5% owned last week
Benjamin Hebert ($7,100) – Odds, form, course history, GIR%
Johan Carlsson ($7,000) – Course horse (3 straight top 16)
Mikko Korhonen ($6,500) – Good form
David Drysdale ($6,400) – 10 straight cuts made
Joel Stalter ($6,400) – Great form
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