Tournament/Course Overview
We’ve got a different tournament setup this week that’s similar to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament. This event features 3 different courses and a cut that takes place after 54 holes rather than your standard 48-hole cut. The format was changed in 2012, before then it was known as the Bob Hope Classic which was a 5 round event, so note that when looking back into course history. It’s also worth noting that since there’s no 3rd round MDF this week if more than 78 guys make the cut line the cut line will be reduced to the top 70 and ties. Strategy in lineup making this week should be different since you’re guaranteed to get 3 days of fantasy scoring from each of your players. This is sort of a hybrid between a regular cut event and a no cut event, so you should be a little more aggressive in your player picks, especially in tournaments. This should be a birdie-fest so the main stat I’m looking at this week is Birdie or Better %. Conditions could be a bit wet which will not only reduce fairway roll but also allow players to stop approach shots on a dime. SG: Approach the Green is always an important stat to look at week to week but if the forecast calls for wet greens the bigger risk takers on tour can get bailed out on these bigger greens. Wet greens will also slow down putts on these already slow (11 stimpmeter) bermuda greens which makes aggressive putting a lot less riskier than slick greens. Bad putters can get bailed out here and great putters don’t have the advantage they’d usually have. In tournaments I’d make a point of fading some of the players expected to be highly owned and aggressively attacking some guys who could see low ownership, especially high upside birdiemaker type players.
PGA West (Tournament Course)
This will be the ‘main’ course where players who make the cut will play the final round on Sunday. It’s a 7,100 yard par 72 that played 10th easiest on Tour last season. It’s a relatively straightforward course with 4 par 5s but players need to watch out for water hazards on 7 different holes. Two par 3s and the par 5 15th feature approach shots onto greens that are surrounded by water and that led to this course ranking 7th in triple bogey or worse scores. If you can avoid water this course is a cakewalk.
PGA West (Stadium Course)
This par 72 7,150 yard course played 2nd easiest on Tour last year only behind the ridiculously easy par 73 Plantation Course at Kapalua with players averaging 3 under par. The course also ranked 2nd in birdie %, 4th in eagle %, and dead last in bogey %. There’s a similar level of water to take into consideration and a true island par 3 17 which reminds you of the infamous #17 at Sawgrass. Again, if you can dodge the water this course is a breeze with plenty of non-protected greens and easy rough to scramble out of.
La Quinta Country Club
La Quinta is an incredibly short 7,000 yard par 72, the shortest of its kind on Tour. It ranked #1 in eagle % with 4 incredibly easy par 5s. Unlike the other 2 courses there aren’t nearly as many water holes and it ranked among the lowest on tour in double bogey % and triple bogey or worse %. Drivers with power and decent accuracy will find themselves chipping their second shot on par 4s and playing regular irons on par 5.
High End Picks
Bill Haas ($10,500)
Unlike last week there aren’t a lot of course horses due to the multi-course nature of this event but you’d have to Haas to be that guy here. He’s finished top 10 3 years in a row including a win in 2015 and he also had a win and runner up when it was the Bob Hope Classic. He’s also in great form posting two T13 finishes in his last two events. He’s going to be popular and I’d probably look his way in cash games over tournaments this week only because he’s not quite a high volume birdiemaker compared to other guys in this range.
Francesco Molinari ($10,300)
Molinari may seem out of place up at the top of this player pool but he’s been riding a heater as of late. After winning his home event at The Italian Open he posted a T6 in a strong field at the WGC HSBC Championships, a T4 at the DP World Tour Championships (the tour championship of the European Tour), and parlayed his success overseas posting a T4 finish at the Shriners Open. He’s made both of his cuts here including a top 10 finish in 2015 so he’s worth a strong consideration.
Charles Howell III ($9,900)
CH3 got a much deserved price boost after he was drastically underpriced at his best tournament last week. He stayed in the top 10 every round to coast to an easy T8 finish which marks his 4th top 15 finish in a row. He was the highest owned player last week and will probably remain highly owned at yet another course he doesn’t miss the cut at. His history here isn’t nearly as spectacular as last week but he finished T11 last year and posted a 2nd place finish in 2013. Lock him into cash games but consider fading him in tournaments to get away from the field.
Jon Rahm ($9,700)
Rahm has been a hot name for a while and whenever he plays he always ends up pushing 30% ownership. Who knows how that may end up with him taking a few months off, but his stats really make a strong case for him. He annihilates the ball off the tee and just has an overall superb tee to green game. His putting is his weakest point but even then his numbers are above average. Despite potential ownership, I love him as a high upside guy this week and I’m happy to pay less than 10K for him.
Jamie Lovemark ($9,600)
Lovemark followed up his T6 at the RSM Classic with an impressive T4 finish last week at the Sony Open. He’s getting hot at the right time as he’s headed to a course where he broke onto the scene last year with a T6 finish. He’s a west coast guy and actually has a track record here going several years back into his teenage years. He’s another ball crusher who attacks par 5s and that’s what we’re looking for this week. His putter has been by far his biggest weakness but that can be mitigated by these slow, wet greens.
Mid Range Picks
Luke List ($8,600)
List tops my list of guys here and I’m going to be heavily invested in him going forward. He’s on an absolute rampage right now with 5 straight top 15 finishes. I was skeptical last week since his game didn’t really fit the course but his form is so good that it didn’t matter. List’s strong suit is an incredibly long driver and he’s one of the best par 5 scorers in the game. He gets 4 par 5s per day to attack and could yet again score multiple eagles for potential huge fantasy numbers. If you aren’t sold on him yet somehow note that he finished 6th here last year and last week he actually managed to go incredibly low owned in tournaments. With DK clearing their game log maybe people won’t notice how much of a tear he’s on and maybe that’ll keep him under 20% owned. Regardless I’m locking and loading him in most of my lineups.
Ryan Palmer ($8,000)
Besides Haas, Palmer is probably the only other guy in the field that represents a true horse for the course. He’s finished top 10 4 out of the last 6 years here and his T17 last year wasn’t too shabby. He missed the cut last week and burned a lot of people but this week the course makes more sense for him. He’s a true par 5 scorer and that leads to him being amongst the top of the field in Birdie or Better % numbers. His weaknesses are approach shots and putting but he’s still above average in those stats and as I explained earlier we’re kind of looking for people weaker in those areas who gain strokes otherwise.
Hudson Swafford ($7,900)
Swafford started off last week with a 62 and stayed in the top 3 all the way until Sunday when he cooled off to the tune of a T13 finish. This makes 18 consecutive cuts made and if that’s not reason enough to play him consider the fact that he’s a 300 yard driving par 5 scorer who gains plenty of strokes off of the tee.
Lucas Glover ($7,700)
Glover has one of the more complete tee to green games in the game, his Achilles heel has always been his atrocious putting and like I’ve said with a few guys above, we’re kind of looking to target bad putters here. He’s among Tour leaders in Greens in Regulation year to year and he makes a lot of birdies. He’s looked solid during the swing season making every cut and posting 2 top 5 finishes in his last 3 events. He’s also pretty good here where he’s finished in the top 20 for consecutive years.
Value Plays
Roberto Castro ($7,000)
Castro’s price is back to where we’re used to seeing it but he hasn’t really done anything to deserve it. Towards the end of last season all the way up to the Tour Championship Castro was playing the best golf of his career, and while he fell victim to the MDF in his last go around he’s looked pretty decent in his other swing season showings. He’s a perfect 4/4 in cuts made here so I think he’s a really safe option in cash games and could go low owned in tournaments.
Robert Garrigus ($6,800)
Garrigus’ statistics really stick out compared to the other guys in this range and that’s with a decent sample size. He makes a ton of birdies and he has a great tee to green game outside of his approach numbers. He’s got a decent track record at this event with 3 top 15 finishes in 6 tries including a 2nd place finish during the first year of the new format.
Michael Thompson ($6,600)
Thompson along with Garrigus are by far the leaders in Birdie or Better % in this entire range. Thompson has a bit of an overall game where outside of driving accuracy he’s just a bit better than the field in every category. He’s come into form recently with 2 straight top 20 finishes and he’s also 2/2 at this event where he posted a respectable T28 last year.
Andrew Loupe ($6,200)
Loupe is easily my favorite bottom-of-the-barrel pick for plenty of reasons. He hasn’t played much this year yet but last year he showed off an incredibly long driver and an aggressive par 5 attack. He ranked 6th on Tour last year in ‘Going for the Green %’ which is a great stat for measuring a players’ aggressiveness in trying to drive the green and going for eagle rather than laying up. He posted a few top 5 finishes last year including one at this event where he finished 3rd.
Bonus European Tour Abu Dhabi Picks
Just a quick rundown, this is the longest course on the European Circuit at 7,600 yards and it’s actually 1,500 yards longer than any PGA course. This is a star studded event as far as European players go and it’s attracted some big American names as well
High End
Dustin Johnson ($11,500) – Pricey, but he’s the definition of super bomber
Rickie Fowler ($10,300) – Defending champ
Alexander Noren ($9,600) – 4 wins in last 8 events
Bernd Wiesberger ($9,000) – 6 straight top 6 finishes
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) – Course horse, 3 wins and 2 runner ups, solid form.
Mid Range
Peter Hanson ($7,800) – 5 top 11 finishes in 7 tries, good form.
Nicolas Colsaerts ($7,600) – 4th longest on tour, consistent steady form.
George Coetzee ($7,400) – Long driver, consistent course history with a handful of top 10s
Value
Chris Wood ($6,900) – Massively underpriced
Richard Bland ($6,700) – Fresh off a very long streak of top 20 finishes, underpriced
Dean Burmester ($6,400) – Longest on Tour, T4 last week and overall good form
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