Another week and another slate of games. Last week was kinda nuts; and, largely, went as expected. Abel Hernandez was a surprise but I am happy with how it turned out otherwise, save for Alex Iwobi getting his goal stolen. I propose players get points for forcing own goals. I digress. 6 games and we are rolling. A lot of goodness is out there for the taking, so let’s get right to it.
GAMEWEEK 22
Middlesbrough v West Ham United — This match needs a name. Maybe the Collateral damage derby? It features the bottom two teams in the league in shots on target. West Ham owns a 24.57% accuracy and Boro puts it on frame 27.27% of the time. These are their season stats. West Ham has been slightly better in the last 4 games, but they are still terrible. Boro is doing worse over that same span. Those fans brave enough to fill the seats behind the goals should consider themselves heroes and they should probably keep their collective heads on a swivel.
Do I really have to offer something on this game besides an eye roll? Fine. Be that way. It is possible that West Ham has gotten better with the removal of Dmitri Payet. I doubt it; but, it could serve to force them to play better as an overall unit. Payet took much of the possession and distributed the ball. With him likely still sidelined because he is demanding out of town, Michail Antonio should serve to take that role. He is their best player not named Andy Carroll. Payet’s benching should serve to boost both of their stocks.
Carroll took 6 shots last match (only 1 on target), which helped more on DK than Fanduel. I am not advocating his use here, but keep him in mind moving forward. Michail Antonio is the only one I want to use and he is more cash playable than anything. He will dominate his team’s possession and distribute and take his own shot. We can’t expect 3 assists every week, but we should be able to project a high floor most weeks. If West Ham scores in this one, they are probably likely to score from a longer shot; but, keep in mind, Boro hasn’t given up more than 1 goal at home but twice this season.
Boro has a solid defense and I expect it to be on display here. They work out of the back and get forward out of the right hand side, mostly. Christian Stuani has the most attempts at goal in the past 4 weeks, but only 1 on target. Taking into account that he has only played 151 minutes of football in the past 4 weeks and that is sort of impressive, I guess. Only 5 guys have a shot on target in the past 4 weeks. They are Stuani, Leadbitter, Ramirez, Friend, and Forshaw. Many more have goal attempts but it is clear that we cannot trust a team that has put less than 1 in 5 on target. GPP punts, at best. Alvaro Negredo has scored 3 goals in 10 appearances at home. He leads the team in home goals. West Ham has allowed the opposing striker to score in 12 of the 21 games played this season. West Ham owns 6 clean sheets, do the math.
See what you made me do… ::eye roll::
Middlesbrough Footballers I like — None
Boro GPP Plays — Whoever starts at striker(4-2-3-1)/center forward (4-3-3)
West Ham Footballers I like — Michail Antonio, MID
West Ham GPP Plays — the midfielders
Bournemouth v Watford — Hooray! Bournemouth is back home. We li… nay… love this for fantasy purposes. In 10 games at home, there have been 34 total goals scored between them and their visitors. Neither team, here, is a defensive stalwart, either. The odds want to try to steer you to the under but I am not buying that. They just got done losing 3-1 to Hull City. If that doesn’t light a fire under you, I don’t know what will. I don’t care that that game was played away. You just don’t lose to Hull.
Watford has trouble scoring on the road. They have scored 8 goals on the road this season and 4 came in one match against West Ham. I do think they score here but an offensive explosion would be a shocker. We know the names of their big stars. Etienne Capoue. Jose Holebas. Troy Deeney? None of them come close to leading their team in shots in the box or even goal attempts while away from home. That honor belongs to Odion Ighalo. His goal conversion leaves something to be desired but you didn’t come here for cookie cutter. He would be low owned if he starts. Please, oh please, let him start.
Capoue is their distributor and possession guy in the middle of the field. On FD, he might hit value without scoring. He isn’t my first choice but if you need to diversify your midfield, you could do worse. You could probably do better but hey… Holebas can have some value in this game with his crossing ability and left side set piece duty. Right Side set piece duties will be handled by Younes Kaboul. When on the road, Watford tends to lean on the left side, the Holebas side.
Bournemouth guys have prices all over the places. One guy who is way too cheap on FD and probably about right on DK, is Junior Stanislas. Kid balls out week in week out. He takes some set piece duties and he crosses the ball and holds some possession. He certainly gives you bang for your buck per minute. The only problem I have with him is his manager won’t let him play 90. I bet he could put up upper 30s (FD scoring) if he played 90 mins. On DK, he is the same price as a guy who plays 90 mins and is in a good spot, himself, so I would probably go that way instead.
There are other GPP plays, though. I like whoever plays at striker, problem is we don’t know who it will be. They rotate them often enough but I am hoping it will be Callum Wilson. Keep an eye on it. Ryan Fraser finds his way into good areas but he is a bit goal dependent. Bournemouth tends to attack down the right side and they send in an average number of crosses. I would look towards guys in the middle and left side of the pitch. Watford plays an aggressive game and has trouble avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Too many others to list and we will need to see who starts, as their starting 11 is not completely consistent.
Bournemouth Footballers I like — Junior Stanislas, MID
Bournemouth GPP Plays — TBD
Watford Footballers I like — Younes Kaboul, DEF
Watford GPP Plays — the forwards; Jose Holebas, DEF
Crystal Palace v Everton — While Benteke is vacationing with the penguins in Antarctica, Romelu Lukaku is hitting the beaches of the Caribbean. I should probably rethink that, but I won’t. Remember last week when I said I love Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud? Yup, he is joining the love club here. He has been involved in 50% of his team’s goals this season and they should put up a crooked number. Palace is the worst team against set pieces and Leighton Baines’s game has taken off once he was given set piece duty. He goes into my like category. GPP plays would include Ross Barkley and Kevin Mirallas. Gareth Barry also comes to mind, but I like the other 2 more. My thinking for these GPP guys is they (plus lukaku) are the only ones to have more than 1 shot on target away from home all season, nevermind a smaller sample size. Plus, if one guy is taking all the goals (he has 12 on the season and nobody else has more than 3), there aren’t many for others.
Everton Footballers I love — Romelu Lukaku, FWD
Everton Footballers I like — Leighton Baines, DEF
Everton GPP plays — Kevin Mirallas, MID; Ross Barkley, MID; Gareth Barry, MID
But, Trey, what about Crystal Palace? Move along. Nothing to see here.
Stoke City v Manchester United — Stoke had a nice offensive output last match. I hope they still have warm, fuzzy dreams about it because I don’t think they score here. If they happen to score it’s just 1. There is better value elsewhere than chasing an unlikely lone goal.
I am going to skip over the main man cuz he is always an option. Let’s start with the left attacking area. I see some value on that side with the recent play of Rashford, Mata, Martial, and Ander Herrera. 25% of Man U’s shots come from the left. Herrera has taken the most shots of those 4 over their last 3 away matches. GPP targets over there on the left side. Pogba is a safe option who should take plenty of shots and distribute in the midfield and he could be good for a goal here.
I would like to also take a beat to explore the curious pricing on Wayne Rooney. 6700 on DK and 10,100 on FD. Am I missing something here? You know my rule, if you carry a 10K price tag on FD, then you better score. How has his price risen? His Premier League form has not been worthy of 10K, imo; but, if you think he is gonna score… I plan on letting others take that hit, if he starts.
Man U Footballers I like — Ibra, FWD; Pogba, MID
Man U GPP plays — Left side midfielders
West Brom v Sunderland — I love this matchup. West Brom. At home. Versus Sunderland. Sunderland sucks and West Brom footballers are not expensive. In their last two away matches, Sunderland has given up 42 shots and 7 goals. Moreover, Sunderland has given up the most shots in the box. We love this because West Brom will do dirty dirty things to that defense and I want no part of them. Maybe you might try the keeper but I bet there are better options out there.
I think this is a great spot for Salomon Rondon. Over the last 3 home matches, Rondon has 5 shots on target and is 1 of 2 players to record multiple shots on target. He has also been involved in 37.5% of their goals over that span. Love status: Activated! They like to get services in, so I like Matt Phillips and Chris Brunt. Remember back to when I said I liked Junior Stanislas but I liked someone else in his price range more who also had a good spot and would play 90 mins? Matt Phillips is that guy. He has been serving up West Brom’s offense and creating in the midfield.
Nacer Chadli has 4 shot attempts in the last 3 games and sunderland gives up 20% of their crapton of conceded shot attempts from the right side. He is in play. James Morrison is going to play underneath Rondon, so I guess he becomes a GPP punt in the loosest sense of the term, but he has to score or he will grossly miss value. There are better punts on the schedule but I couldn’t not put him out there for his price.
For Sunderland, Jermain Defoe, Patrick Van Aanholt, Papy Djilobodji. The first two are GPP only and I am only listing them because I am contractually obligated. I am not authorizing their use, but sunderland has these days where they manage a goal somehow and Defoe is usually the culprit. Papy, on the other hand, is solid week in, week out. He is cash safe but has only minor goal upside.
West Brom Footballers I love — Salomon Rondon, FWD
West Brom Footballers I like — Chris Brunt and Matt Phillips, MID
West Brom GPP plays — James Morrison and Nacer Chadli, MID
Sunderland Footballers I like — Papy Djilobodji, DEF
Sunderland GPP plays — Jermain Defoe, FWD; Patrick Van Aanholt, DEF
Manchester City v Tottenham — Last game of the day. Time to put on those big boy/girl pants and attack this game. It’s crazy how many people do not attack that final game. With how bunched scores get on the leaderboard, that last guy can really help your cause. I’m gonna do my best to make sure we target the right guys here because this game looks tricky.
Man City is at home and owns one of the best possession games in the business. I say one of the best because Tottenham has slightly better possession over the last 6 weeks. I somewhat expect Man City to do what they did when they played Arsenal and come out in the 4-1-4-1. They were able to limit Arsenal’s infiltration attempts by layering their defense and countering. Should they pull that off, then this could be a lower scoring affair. I don’t know if anyone can stop Tottenham the way they are playing right now, though. The prevailing thought around is that the injury to Jan vertonghen is going to lead the spurs to stick with 3 in the back. If that is the case, I expect wave after wave of Tottenham attack that would force City on its heels the majority of the game.
Unless you have a hunch I would go safe with your late game hammer unless you are on DK and can late swap. I will say this every week most likely. The safe route is to play for the Tottenham side of things and hope they continue to read the riot act to every team in their path. If you think there will be a few goals scored, then almost anyone from the midfield and forwards are in play. I like Dele Alli and I like Christian Eriksen. Danny Rose and Kyle Walker should be cash safe too. The GPP targets would be Harry Kane and, to a lesser extent, Victor Wanyama. Wanyama finds his way into a shot or two here and there, but he gives way to the other middies in terms of possession.
On the Man City side of things, avoid stacking and limit your exposure. I can’t envision City netting more than 1 here, so it will be tough to tell who would be the best option. I am probably fading De Bruyne over his price and probably doing the same with Aguero. For their prices, there are surer options, but it could be a contrarian play if you want to venture there. I would probably look more towards the second and third man in on the rush type guys like Silva or toure. I will probably stay away from using their defense, as there will be cheaper, better options on the slate. Obviously, everyone on city is, at best, a GPP play, and most are unusable.
Man City GPP plays — Yaya Toure and David Silva, MID
Tottenham Footballers I like — Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen, MID; Danny Rose and Kyle Walker, DEF
Spurs GPP plays — Harry Kane, FWD; Victor Wanyama, MID
Keepers:
- Victor Valdes, Middlesbrough – West Ham will be shooting and Boro plays very good, if not great, defense at home. Possible clean sheet? He should be sufficiently owned after his performance last week.
- Ben Foster, West Brom – Coming off a sensational outing last week in a loss and getting a much easier opponent. Clean Sheet is a possibility. He is second to Tom Heaton in saves on the season.
- Joel Robles, Everton – Could get a few saves here and there is the chance of a clean sheet as the cherry on top.
- Hugo Lloris, Tottenham – Man City will need to shoot every chance they get. I could see 6 saves upside here.
- David De Gea, Man U – I am not sure how many saves he will get but he could get 3 and a clean sheet which would be serviceable.
Captain Armband
I forgot this last week. I’m not sure who I was going to pick but I know was excited. I am even more excited this week (perhaps because I remember the name?). To refresh your memory on my version of the captain armband; it is not going to be the obvious play, but the guy who I think could be a lesser known (maybe lesser owned) option who should perform quite admirably. My captain this week is:
Salomon Rondon
Ok wrapping it up here for the gameweek 22 preview. I am going to try and get the team sheets out as soon as possible. It will likely be around dinner time. You can put the kids to bed and sift through the notes. If you are not a DFS Army member, you are missing out on some key information. I don’t mean just for DFS Soccer. Army members are killing it in every sport and I can get you a ticket in.
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