Last week was rough. It was inevitable that it was going to be a crazy week and I said as much in Slack chat as soon as Swansea notched their third goal. To add to the craziness, strikers not named Andy Carroll had a horrible afternoon. My favorite play of the day should have scored but Matt Phillips playing out of position saved West Brom from Salomon Rondon celebration. Oh well. Onward and upward.
I got some Destiny’s Child in my head as I start to write this. I’m a survivor. I’m gonna make it. Ok that’s enough of that. We will save the Karaoke for that new bar downtown. It does bring me to our feature for gameweek 23, though. On DK, there is a huge cross-sport survivor contest and today’s sport is EPL. Now, I am a Fanduel player; and, as such, typically write my articles with a tilt towards the FD scoring structure. I will try to interject some FD analysis where I can since we have the Mega Sweeper, but this one is for the DK players.
WHAT’S DIFFERENT?
On DK, the scoring system does not allow for peripheral scoring in the way that Fanduel does. There are no points for passes or clearances, which tend to force the player selection towards the creative players and the heavily involved. On FD, a defender like Papy Djilobodji would be an excellent play (not this week, as he is out) because he gets a lot of clearances and gets plenty of passes. Without adding upside, he is probably a lock for 15 points to start. He is averaging over 20 points. On DK, I wouldn’t touch him and his 3 points.
Draftkings uses crosses as a stat. The cross doesn’t have to lead to a shot. It just has to happen and corners count in that regard, too. This makes set piece takers in games where there are aggressive teams a solid choice. Some teams have prolific open play crossers, too. On my stat sheet, check out the creativity tab and the set piece tab to see which players have been facilitating in this manner in recent weeks.
Fanduel counts shots on goal. BY having shots on goal, it makes it difficult to add this into a player’s value with certainty. Sure we can see who is taking shots and reasonably expect them to find the net, at some point; but, on DK, they take into account shots. Any shot. DId you hit that dude not paying attention in the 5th row, 20 yards wide of the goal? +1. Just missed wide into the side netting? +1. Keeper corralled it for an easy save? +2. That’s right. You get 1 point for a shot and an extra point for the shot being on target. This just adds to a player’s floor, so find those guys who fire away week in, week out.
A quick word on stacking on Draftkings: pick your spots. The scoring system doesn’t necessarily depend on stacking like in other sports because it is quite common to have goals unassisted. There are also frequently games with just a goal scored and if you stack that team you are likely sunk. You want the guys who are crossing and the guys scoring. The peripherals on DK are fouls drawn and tackles won. Those alone probably won’t help your guy make value. You can stack if you can find a couple guys on a team that is expected to score 3 or more goals, due to the increased chances. Maybe you might want to stack a facilitator and likely goal scorer or a couple guys you think may score in situations like these.
Got it? OK. Let’s apply it to this week’s slate.
GAMEWEEK 23
We have 7 games on this slate; and, unlike the saturday morning slate where there is a late game that starts after the other games are done, all of them start at relatively the same time. This means we will know all of the starting footballers before first whistle. Fanduel players rejoice!
Arsenal v Watford — We like Arsenal here. We do not like Watford. Watford has been playing bad defense, lately. They have given up 2 big chances per game and 10 shots in the box per game over their last 3 away matches. Let me pause to define what a big chance is. A big chance is defined as a chance where a player is reasonably expected to score a goal, like in a 1 on 1 situation or where they are very close to goal. Arsenal Should dominate possession, as they have been holding nearly 70% of the possession in their last 3 home games. Their scoring touch is also starting to increase. Over their last 3 games, they have turned shots into goals 6.94% of the time; but, over their last 2, that number rises to 8.7%. Yea that is still low on the surface, but Arsenal has been taking a lot of shots lately and they find themselves in the box more than any other team.
It starts with Alexis Sanchez. He is expensive for a reason. Roster him with confidence in any contest you wish. If Giroud starts, he is also a big target. We like him, too. Past that, We need to see who starts on the wings. Walcott has returned and looks to be feeling fine, if his FA cup performance is any indication. The wings for Arsenal will not be sneaky. Ozil is a GPP play. Arsenal’s open play crosses come from their wing fullbacks, usually, even though Ozil takes set pieces. Arsenal’s style tends to be to work the ball around the 18 yd box and look for a way inside. Look for your goal scorers to come from this game and take facilitators from another.
Petr Cech is a wonderful option at keeper. He could end up with a 2 or 3 save clean sheet. If so, you will have wanted to pair him with monreal or bellerin. You can get some extra points for the clean sheet bonuses.
Footballers I like — Alexis Sanchez, FWD; Olivier Giroud, FWD
GPP Plays — Theo Walcott, MID; Mesut Ozil, MID
Sunderland v Tottenham — People will look at playing, and maybe stacking, two games today. The Arsenal match and this one. Sunderland sucks. Recently they just scored a goal by somebody other than Jermain Defoe, Victor Anichebe, or Patrick Van Aanholt. They only have the one and Van Aanholt is no longer in town. If Sunderland scores, it will likely be Defoe. We want access to the other side of this game.
Tottenham will dominate possession and come at Sunderland wave after wave. Sunderland will give up a ton of shots in the box. I believe they lead the league in shots conceded within in the box. I think Tottenham can put up 3 or 4 today. Their enabler is Christian Eriksen and he will touch the ball a ton. You can fire him up with certainty. He also gets their set pieces; so, when Sunderland gets aggressive (and they will), he will be there to put a scare into them. He could score himself or he can set up the likes of Dele Alli or Harry Kane. Alli is solid play all on his own and is cash viable. Harry Kane should be involved in the scoring in some fashion but we will set him as a GPP play.
Danny Rose and Kyle Walker will be expensive but they will be involved in shots and crosses and they are definitely in play, as well. Danny Rose flies around the field and he should draw some fouls and take some shots, too. Anybody else on the field for the Spurs is a GPP play if they are involved in the attack. I would stay away from the defenders, since they are playing 3 in the back. Their job will be to stay home and protect against the counter attack.
Jermain Defoe is so dangerous when he touches the ball that I am not willing to say that there is clean sheet material here. As such, I am fading Hugo Lloris. I do not see him facing that many shots and if he lets 1 in, then you will likely be done at keeper. Better options out there.
Footballers I like — Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli, MID; Danny Rose, DEF
GPP Plays — Harry Kane, FWD; Kyle Walker, DEF; Son Hueng-Min, MID; Victor Wanyama, MID (might drop back in more of a holding role if Sunderland can put together any possession. He would be someone who joins the attack late. Limited upside.)
Liverpool v Chelsea — This is the hammer, I guess. It starts 15 mins later than the other game. Chelsea is top of the table and Liverpool just got done losing for the last week. They were upset by Swansea City last gameweek. They then were knocked out of the League Cup and FA Cup competitions this week. That said, even before I looked at the lines, it felt like a bounceback spot for liverpool. Lo and behold, the oddsmakers actually favorited Liverpool. They need this game. With Chelsea’s schedule, a loss here could make it almost impossible for them to recover and win the premiership. Chelsea continues to roll even though they don’t look good doing it. They had a huge row between the coach and their premier player, sat him down a game, still won, invited him back, and he scores a goal to lead them to victory. Even when things were going well for them, their victories just didn’t look convincing. Obviously, the underlying numbers are going to look better for Chelsea, but this still looks, to me, like a bump in their road.
In a game such as this, the scoring can come from anywhere, not just the guys up front. It would be easy for me to say I think Firmino, Costa, or Coutinho scores but this game is going to take funny bounces. Firmino has been the biggest goal scoring threat in this match over the last 3 games and he deserves some consideration, granted Costa missed a match. Marcos Alonso is playing to keep Nathan Ake off his back, so he has extra motivation. You can expect him to be involved if he plays. Adam Lallana will be heavily involved in the midfield for Liverpool.
The problem with most participants in this matchup is that they are expensive. They could be tough to work into your lineup, especially if you are going after the guys on Arsenal or Tottenham. I will offer this. Azpilicueta is somehow cheap on DK and Chelsea tends to play a counterattacking style. I don’t know that he will get the chance to get forward too much but, at 3800 on DK, a guy who has averaged 5.9 points is certainly interesting for a late hammer if you need savings. Otherwise, scan the stats, and take your shot in GPPs.
Footballers I like — Robert firmino, FWD; Marcos Alonso, MID
GPP Plays — Everybody else just about, led by Diego Costa, FWD
Follow the Leader
It is time for me to give out my captain’s armband. You survivor contestants can probably skip down to keepers. This is my highlight for a player who is not necessarily the most obvious play. Sometimes it’s bold and I am ok with that. It is what we need for a GPP play. To avoid taking a player above 8K on Draftkings, I am going to say that this guy continues to run hot. My captain this week is:
Fernando Llorente
Goalkeepers
Let’s wrap this baby up. It was supposed to be brief this week and I tried but 7 games just takes it there if we are going to explain our logic. Now I know why other just give you a few players to build around. On to the Keeper rankings
- Tom Heaton – Burnley is staunch at Turf Moor and Leicester is not good on the road. Even if no clean sheet, he could see some saves. Use at least 1 defender with him just in case on draftkings.
- Petr Cech – Another clean sheet candidate. He may not see as many saves as Heaton.
- Fabianski – Southampton has a low goal conversion percentage and not because they just take a lot of shots.
- Hugo Lloris – Should get an easy win. There is a non-zero chance for a clean sheet. Not sure on the number of saves.
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Best of luck to everyone in gameweek 23! Remember to make yourself available 1 hour before kickoff to check to make sure your boys are playing. I will see you in slack