Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
Well we had an interesting night last night filled with some late news again. As always I tell people to get on in the DFS Army Slack chat, or be glued into Twitter. If you know your not going to be able to be around 6:30 to tip-off bad things are going to happen.
For the free squares yesterday we started off with John Wall who exploded for 61.8 DKFP good enough for 6.4x value. My second pick of the night was Austin Rivers who had 25.3 DKFP for 5.1x value. Now to take a look at my ultimate free square Mindaugas Kuzminskas. About 15 minutes after I published my article news came in that Porzingis was going to play. That definitely hurt Kuz’s potential. He did end up starting still, but only got us 2.3x value. Definitely not what we want to see out of our free square, but the guys here at DFS Army did a good job of updating the VIP Spreadsheet, so I hope you guys adjusted. The guys here at DFS Army always do a good job of updating before lock, so make sure before finalizing lineups you check that out.
Tonight
Tonight looks to be a fun slate with 9 games on the docket. The larger the slate I think is more advantageous to skilled players, and players willing to put into the research. There is a lot of value on the board tonight with so many games in play. Let us try and narrow it down:
Free Squares
- James Harden PG/SG HOU ($12,200)
- It doesn’t take too much of a NBA DFS genius to figure out that your going to want to target some guys in a game with a projected total of (241) points. I think the two main guys you going to have to make a decision about here is Harden vs Durant. We know the numbers with Harden he averages a mind boggling 1.61 DKFP/M. Golden State is only favored by (5.5) points right now. This game should be close and Harden will get minutes. Here at DFS Army we have projected right around 37 minutes. We’d get a baseline projection of 59.5 points which is 4.8x value. That doesn’t look great, but they call it a baseline projection for a reason. Houston’s team implied total is (118) points, and their opponents pace is 103. James Harden has a staggering 35 usage rate. We have Harden around 66 DKFP tonight, but that comes with 75-80+ upside.
- Lou Williams SG LAL ($4,600)
- If your trying to fit some of the studs into your lineups night finding value guys is going to be crucial. Lou Williams has been on heater lately. He averages 1.14 DKFP/M, and we have him projected to get right around 23 minutes. The baseline is 26.2 DKFP which is good enough for 5.7x value. That is a great baseline, but if Lou gets extra minutes tonight he has the potential to go off for 7-8x value. When he plays his usage is right around 30. He is playing against an Indiana backcourt that is pretty average defensively as well. If your nervous about him not getting minutes Coach Walton had this to say, “We’re not going to shorten the bench’s minutes to get the starters get back in sooner.” I think Lou will get the minutes tonight to make him a solid play at ($4,600)
- Myles Turner C IND ($6,900)
- If your looking for a guy in the mid-range I really like Myles Turner tonight. You’ve been able to make a lot of money taking big men against a horrible Lakers front-court. The Lakers give up 1.13 DKFP/M to opposing centers, and Turner himself is averaging 1.08 DKFP/M. Turner plays a decent amount of minutes with a projection of 31 minutes tonight. Baseline projection would give us 33.48 DKFP good enough for right around 5x value. That is the baseline though, and big men have been destroying the Lakers front court. Here at DFS Army we have him projected 36 DKFP. With an implied total of (112) points, and what looks to be an uptempo game. I do not think it is out of the question to see Turner get 40-45 DKFP tonight.
Final Thoughts and Free Square of the Night
This is shaping up to be a fun slate tonight with some great games on the board. With that being said my free square of the night is going to be Lou Williams. Good luck tonight everyone!
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