Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Recap
Last night was an interesting night with one guy who hit for us, one guy who was mediocre, and one guy who totally missed the mark. Giannis was the hit of the night getting us 6x value, Draymond played alright and got us 5.2x value, and our free square of the night Cody Zeller 3.8x value. Not what we like to see out of our free square, but sometimes that is the nature of the beast. In NBA DFS a guy can have all the factors pointing to a big night, but unfortunately they miss the mark.
Tonight
We have a shorter 5-game slate tonight which can sometimes make it harder to find value. Fortunately there are some guys in spots I really like tonight. Let us dive into the slate:
- John Wall PG WAS ($9,600)
- If you are going to base your team around a stud tonight I think John Wall is that guy. He comes into this game averaging 1.31 DKFP/M, and is going up against a banged up Knicks team who is giving up around 1.0 DKFP/M. Here at DFS Army we have Wall projected to get around 37 minutes which would give us a baseline projection of around 48.5 DKFP. That would get us right around 5x value, but I foresee Wall going off for around 50-55 DKFP with 70+ upside. This is projected to be a very close game as the Wizards are only 2.5 point favorites with an implied total of (111) points.
- Austin Rivers PG/SG LAC ($5,200)
- With the news of Chris Paul injured for the next 6-8 weeks role players on the Clippers are going to need to step up. Rivers is a guy who is averaging .73 DKFP/M which isn’t stellar by any means. I think this number will see a boost due to Rivers having more of the ball handling duties with Paul out. In his last 5 games he is averaging 36 minutes, and 31.4 DKFP. At DFS Army we have him projected to get around 35 minutes which would give us a baseline projection of 25.5 points. With an increased role I think we could see Rivers hit 30 DKFP which would get us around 5.8x value. He is known to put up a lot of shots which increases his potential upside as well.
- Mindaugas Kuzminskas SF NYK ($4,500)
- Mindaugas is a guy who I don’t think Draftkings has properly priced quite yet. Until they do I will keep putting him into lineups. At DFS Army we have him projected to get around 30 minutes. He averages around .83 DKFP/M which would give us around 25 DKFP. That would be good enough for 5.5x value. The Knicks clearly like Mindaugas, and he has been getting more involved the offense. He is a very efficient player and I think he has the potential at $4,500 of 6-7x upside. I like his matchup tonight against the Wizards in what should be a tightly contested game.
We are going to try and right the ship tonight, and hit on our free square of the night. Without further ado my free square of the night is going to be Mindaugas Kuzminskas. Good luck to everyone tonight!
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