Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square.
Last night is the perfect example as to why you need to be locked into either Twitter or the DFS Army Slack chat for last minute news. If you were in the chat or following on Twitter you got the Kyle Lowry news. Lowry was almost 20% owned in the DK Four Point Play, and that is free rake for those people who are paying attention.
Taking a look back at my night it seemed like I hit all of my plays except for my free square of the day Jameer Nelson. That did not work out as planned. He only played 20 minutes, and he did not do much in those 20 minutes. Kenneth Faried managed to hit value, and if you saw how highly I was on Lowry I hope you made the pivot over to Joseph who had a monster night. We have a nice 9-game slate tonight, so let us dig in and find some free squares of the night.
- Draymond Green PF/C GSW ($7,900)
- The is a game that is slated for fireworks with an implied total of (122) points for the Warriors. Draymond isn’t the guy who is going drop 30 actual points, but he does so much other stuff on the court that it doesn’t take him much to get up to 40+ DKFP. He’s averaging around 1.19 DKFP/M on the season and around 35 minutes in his last 5 games. He’s coming off of a monster 60.3 DK point night against the Cavs, and I think that dominance will continue against a banged up OKC frontcourt. Jerami Grant and Enes Kanter are not necessarily known for their imposing defensive prowess. I think we can expect Draymond to get around 40-45 DKFP with potential 50+ upside.
- Cody Zeller C CHA ($5,200)
- Cody Zeller has put together some very solid performances lately, and at a price of $5,200, I think he makes a great play at the center position tonight. In his last 3 games he’s played he has gone for 6.4x, 8x, and 5.7x value. He’s been getting the minutes as well lately and is expected to get in the range of 30-35 minutes tonight against Portland. At an average of.90 DKFP/M we can expect a baseline projection of around 28 points which puts us right at value. I think you need to bump up that projection just a little bit because of the terrible Portland frontcourt who is giving up 1.06 DKFP/M to opposing centers. Look to plug in Zeller in your lineups in a game that looks to be a close high scoring game with Charlotte’s implied total of (111) points.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo PG/SF ($10,400)
- When it comes to the top stud of the night I think it is going to come down to two players in the same game Giannis or James Harden. I’m going to go with Giannis for a few different reasons. First of all is the $1,300 in savings you get by playing Giannis instead of James. Giannis comes into the game with some rest too as Harden played a ton of minutes last night. Giannis is averaging 1.41 DKFP/M and will be playing in a pace-up game with an implied total of (110) points. One of the big non-analytical reason I love Giannis is due to the positional flexibility he gives you. With the ability to play him as a guard or forward it helps you get creative with your roster construction. With the way this game is looking to shape up as a close one, I think he is going to get around 36-38 minutes which should easily allow him to hit value. I think Giannis has a 50 point floor tonight, and as always 70+ upside.
If I have to pick one guy as my free bingo square of the night I’m going to with Cody Zeller. Good luck tonight to all!
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