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–Congratulations to one of our own, Nathan Penley, who won $5000 last night on a sixth-place finish in the big $4 GPP tourney over there on DraftKings
–Not a ton of high-priced players on this slate (John Wall is tops on FanDuel at $9500 and Hassan Whiteside on DraftKings at $9600)
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards (-4.5, ML: -155) – O/U: 195
————Pace> ORL: 25th – WSH: 17th
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 29th – WSH: 20th
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 3rd – WSH: 20th
Line Analysis:
It appears like Vegas is giving the Magic the upper hand tonight, mainly because the Wizards played an up-tempo game in Brooklyn last night against the NBA’s second-fastest running team. Now on the back-end of a B2B, the Wizards come home to face the NBA’s third-best defensive unit. The total isn’t even slated to be over 200 points, and that leads me to believe that the Magic will force the Wizards into their mundane style of basketball.
ORL:
The Wizards are a great team to pick on, and hopefully, that can give the NBA’s second-worst offense a kick up the arse. Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic are my preferred targets here; it’s a solid matchup for both guys who get to take on a tired team.
You might even be able to make the case for Aaron Gordon or Jeff Green, although, they are more of deep sleepers for GPPs. In my opinion, it’s best not to wake them up…let them sleep.
WSH:
Ian Mahinmi (questionable)
I’m not particularly thrilled about too many Wizards from this game, but I do like the outlook for Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat. Porter will be defaulted to more often since John Wall and Bradley Beal do not see their usual allotment of minutes on B2Bs. The matchup isn’t that great for Wall or Beal either, but we can’t say the same for Gortat, as opposing centers have done great against the Magic this season.
Kelly Oubre Jr is in play since more Wizards’ players will have to step up to the plate. He is definitely not an assured play, but it might be a big differentiating factor in GPPs.
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons (-4, ML: -230) – O/U: 198.5
————Pace> CHI: 21st – DET: 26th
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 11th – DET: 16th
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 12th – DET: 5th
Line Analysis:
This is the third installment of the Cheri Mah sleep game series, and it’s actually listed as the worst possible disadvantage for a team THIS ENTIRE SEASON. Seems a bit harsh, considering what the Grizzlies have to deal with tonight. All things aside, I think it’s important to remember how flat the Bulls came out on Saturday against the Mavericks on the back-end of a B2B. It’s also the Bulls fourth game in five days. If you couldn’t tell, I like the Pistons to roll in this one.
CHI:
Doug McDermott, Michael Carter-Williams (out)
Rajon Rondo is back in the lineup and he’ll likely be a popular play…DON’T DO IT! ABORT! ABORT! Look, this is a bad outlook for the Bulls tonight and Rondo gets a lot of his points via the assist. Not many Bulls points + not many Rondo assists = not many Rondo fantasy points. Math class is over, folks.
Jimmy Butler is the only guy I’d look to here. Yes, the outlook for the Bulls is terrible, but he is a gaaatdamn superstar. We can afford a lot of talented players tonight, and Butler is a luxury that we may be able to afford. When the Bulls fell flat on their faces Saturday, Butler still did his thing.
DET:
Reggie Bullock (out)
Andre Drummond has a fantastic outlook in this game, especially if the Bulls aren’t supposed to win this game. That means he could have a great shot of grabbing 20 rebounds- his signature move. Drumm Diddy Dumm!
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Tobias Harris stand to have a great night against these tired folks. They aren’t going to break your bank, but they’ll still probably put up close to 30 fantasy points. Close! I didn’t say they would get there, but close.
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat (-2, ML: -115) – O/U: 202.5
————Pace> NYK: 15th – MIA: 24th
OFF Efficiency> NYK: 13th – MIA: 26th
DEF Efficiency> NYK: 26th – MIA: 11th
Line Analysis:
I love this game for fantasy purposes since it looks to be the most competitive on the slate. We have it all- superstars, value plays and a partridge in a pear tree.
NYK:
Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis are the obvious plays here. I’d give Melo the advantage because I’m not sure who the Heat could possibly stick him with. Porzingis will see a bit of downtick with Joakim Noah in the starting lineup, but I do like the matchup if it’s Whiteside that will be tasked with the challenge. KP plays out on the perimeter most of the time anyways, and that would put the league’s best shot blocker in a vulnerable position on the defensive end.
Courtney Lee is going to play tonight and that downgrades Justin Holiday and Brandon Jennings. Regardless, Derrick Rose has been good enough to use on a consistent basis as he’s been quite profitable in four of his team’s last five games.
MIA:
Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Justise Winslow (out)/Luke Babbitt, Josh Richardson (questionable)
The Heat are going through their annual period of roster decimation, so Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside have been single-handedly trying to keep the Heat together…and they’ve done a good job. Dragic has reached salary expectations in all four games since returning from the ankle injury. Whiteside has put up 50+ fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder are going to see all the run they can handle. TJ definitely has the most upside/consistency of this trio and he closes out games, while the other two are pretty damn cheap.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8, ML: -350) – O/U: 193.5
————Pace> PHI: 16th – MEM: 28th
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30th – MEM: 24th
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 24th – MEM: 6th
Line Analysis:
Both teams are on the back-end of a B2B tonight, but the Grizzlies may actually have it worse than their opponents. Scratch that…there may be nothing worse than playing for the Sixers. The Grizzlies, however, did play a double-overtime game in New Orleans last night and their flight home back to Memphis didn’t get in until 2 AM CST. Luckily, they are playing the Sixers, who also played last night and are missing a good chunk of their roster. If you like basketball, don’t watch this game…you may end up hating the sport afterward.
PHI:
Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Robert Covington, Nerlens Noel (out)/Jerryd Bayless (questionable, likely out)
Oh boy, this should be fairly interesting…just take a look at all the names out for the Sixers. There will be a lot of value down low for the Sixers as Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes will all be asked to play some big minutes.
Sergio Rodriguez, Gerald Henderson and Nik Stauskas are all decent options in this spot, but only because of their respective prices.
MEM:
Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Vince Carter (out), Zach Randolph (questionable)
Given all the injuries to the Grizzles’ roster, there will be plenty of value options here. Andrew Harrison and Troy Daniels are the two names that come to the forefront. Harrison has shown flashes of profitability before, but it has actually been Daniels racking up the points in the last four games.
Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green are pretty damn good options as well; my only issue here is their opponent. Sure, the Grizz have a phenomenal matchup, but they are also on the back-end of a B2B. I’m wondering if they don’t see a full complement of minutes because of that. I’ll try to get a better glimpse into that before the game.
Zach Randolph will return to the lineup for the first time in seven games. Tonight will be highly emotional for him since it’s the first game he played in since his mother died. There will be a lot of narrative talk on this, but there’s an interesting thought as to how much time Z-Bo will play. On one hand, the Grizzlies need him to play big minutes with their roster being depleted on a daily basis. On the other hand, Z-Bo hasn’t played in a while and it may take some time to get his wind back.
San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, ML: -155) @ Minnesota Timberwolves – O/U: 206
————Pace> SA: 27th – MIN: 19th
OFF Efficiency> SA: 6th – MIN: 10th
DEF Efficiency> SA: 13th – MIN: 22nd
Line Analysis:
With the Spurs on the back-end of a B2B, I think it’s plausible for the T-Wolves to do well tonight. They have struggled a lot this season but could turn the corner at any time.
SA:
Tony Parker (out)
We should see some of their players rest. Tony Parker is officially out, and Patty Mills will see more minutes.
I mentioned David Lee yesterday, but it appears I was a day early on him. Lee only played 9 minutes on Monday; if either Pau Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge sit out, he would become the guy I thought he could be (and then some) last night.
I hate to be THAT GUY but I’m going to take age/experience in this instance over youth. Kawhi Leonard is going to draw LaVine and/or Wiggins, and I’ll take the guy with a couple of quality years under his belt. If you look into Kawhi’s recent history against the T-Wolves you’ll see that he hasn’t done all that well, but you have to take his minutes into account here. As you’ll see, when given the minutes he does just fine.
MIN:
Brandon Rush (questionable)
I usually try not to pick on the Spurs, but I’m realizing they’re not as invincible as we think. Opposing bigs have done a great job against the Spurs, so I really like Karl-Anthony Towns in this one and possibly Gorgui Dieng if a couple things turn out the right way. Most people will automatically defer to Whiteside, but KAT could be an excellent play for tournaments.
It’d be tough to recommend Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine but we’ll definitely have the money to make a couple moves like this tonight. Since the Spurs are on the back-end of a B2B, you can find some solace in the fact that they may not have a full tank tonight. I’d prefer LaVine here because he’s likely not going to draw Leonard on the defensive end.
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz (-9, ML: 204) – O/U: 204
————Pace> PHX: 1st – UTA: 30th
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 22nd – UTA: 8th
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 21st – UTA: 4th
Line Analysis:
The spread on the Jazz has dropped down to -7, and that could just be because they played last night in LA. I don’t think that you totally need to shy away from the Suns, but there’s no need to pull an all-out Suns stack either. Point in case, I believe we’ll see a close game and some sneaky appeal for a late-night hammer.
PHX:
TJ Warren (out)
It’s not exactly the greatest matchup for the Suns but we can take solace in the fact that the Jazz may be a bit tired on the back-end of a B2B. Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Devin Booker stand the best chance to do damage tonight; I like Bledsoe the most for his upside, while Knight and Booker are more of leverage plays that I may only go to if there’s a pistol pointed at my noggin. Shooting guards have had some profitability over the last few games against the Jazz.
PJ Tucker has posted some decent performances over the last three games, so I guess we could take a crack here. He does offer some interesting upside at a cheap price.
UTA:
George Hill, Derrick Favors (out)
Gordon Hayward is my favorite play from the Jazz; he’s been on a roll since George Hill got injured, leaving him as the main ball-handler in the offense. Unfortunately, his price has come up to $8200 DK/$8100…but the bright side is that we can basically fit anyone we want tonight.
Rodney Hood should do well in this matchup as well. I’m interested to see if he has any limitations on the back-end of a B2B, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t hit value against the Suns. Shelvin Mack is in a good spot since the Suns are one of the worst teams in the NBA against point guards.
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