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Denver Nuggets (-4, ML: -170) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 211
————Pace> DEN: 4th – PHI: 15th
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 19th – PHI: 29th
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 25th – PHI: 24th
Line Analysis:
The Sixers are 3-1 against the spread when listed as underdogs of five points or fewer. The money line isn’t that high for the Nuggets, so we should see a pretty close game. Both teams are extremely weak on the defensive end and this is a game that features a total of 211. Fantasy….goldmine.
DEN:
Nikola Jokic (out)
I’m not sure that the Sixers have anyone on their roster to stick Wilson Chandler. Jokic is out again so you’ll see Kenneth Faried get extended minutes again. Will Barton has played minutes in the mid-30s in both games since coming back from an ankle injury; he paid off a great ROI of 1 FP/MIN.
PHI:
Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, Jahlil Okafor (out)
Joel Embiid is still too cheap…play him and don’t even think twice about it. Covington and Bayless have already been ruled out; Sergio Rodriguez, Gerald Henderson and Nick Stauskas should be the direct beneficiaries of this.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks (PK) – O/U: 210.5
————Pace> OKC: 6th – ATL: 7th
OFF Efficiency> OKC: 15th – ATL: 27th
DEF Efficiency> OKC: 13th – ATL: 2nd
Line Analysis:
Interesting to note that this line has moved to -2.5 in favor of the Hawks. I’m shocked since they have lost six straight and nine of the last 10. OKC has won five straight, in convincing fashion, so something has to give.
OKC:
Steven Adams (questionable)
Russell Westbrook is an elite option whenever he takes the court, and tonight is no different. If Adams has to sit out tonight, that’ll give more minutes to guys like Enes Kanter and Joffrey Lauvergne, but I’m not sure that any of them will make a big enough splash.
ATL:
Paul Millsap (game-time decision)
If Millsap has to miss tonight’s game you can give a big boost to Dwight Howard. If Adams is out, Howard could have one of his best games of the season since OKC doesn’t have much depth, in terms of interior defense. Dennis Schroder will definitely see more usage if Millsap sits, but he will have his hands full against Westbrook and there are better options for upside on this slate. If Millsap does suit up, he’ll be a very intriguing option.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors (-1.5, ML: -120) – O/U: 217
————Pace> CLE: 11th – TOR: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> CLE: 5th – TOR: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> CLE: 19th – TOR: 16th
Line Analysis:
Very interesting to note that the Raptors were favored when the line opened (not a pick em’), and that is legit crazy. This leads me to believe that the Cavs are in the middle of their annual struggle, losing three-straight games. It’s ok, they did the same thing last year. The Raptors are on a tear, winning five straight by a comfortable margin, and they have played the Cavs very close in their two previous meetings this season.
CLE:
I’ll always be able to make the case for the LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. I like Love the most in this situation since there have been a few power forwards that have done work against the Raptors.
Tristan Thompson isn’t a bad play either since we have seen centers do well down low against the Raptors. Just as the Cavs haven’t succeeded lately, neither has Tristan, but he’s shown us in the past that he’s fully capable of returning 6x-7x vale on his price tag.
TOR:
Broken record alert- Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the go-to guys here. If my Vegas theory applies here, both of them should have a big game.
Washington Wizards (-5.5, ML: -230) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 219.5
————Pace> WSH: 17th – BKN: 2nd
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 20th – BKN: 25th
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 20th – BKN: 29th
Line Analysis:
You have to love this game from a fantasy perspective, as it has one of the highest totals of the night. Both teams have never heard of that dirty D-word, defense, and the Nets up-tempo style should have everyone jacked up a notch.
WSH:
Great matchup for John Wall and Bradley Beal; not sure the Nets have anyone to keep either guy in front of them. Otto Porter and Markieff Morris work too since the Nets give up the sixth-most points per game from behind the arc.
BKN:
I really like the outlook for Sean Kilpatrick and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Wizards have struggled to defend shots from behind the arc and these guys will take most of those shots. Unfortunately, Brook Lopez will be taking shots from there as well. Not interested.
If Trevor Booker is out, Anthony Bennett and Luis Scola could be viable punt options at power forward.
Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5, ML: ) – O/U: 200
————Pace> MEM: 28th – NO: 10th
OFF Efficiency> MEM: 24th – NO: 21st
DEF Efficiency> MEM: 6th – NO: 14th
Line Analysis:
The spread on this game changed to Pelicans -4 overnight, so I have some skepticism as to what’s going on here. Regardless, there’s not going to be too much interest from this game.
MEM:
Andrew Harrison is still incredibly cheap, and he’ll probably go overlooked with another solid value play available at point guard. However, the fact that the Pelicans were so heavily favored at the open makes me think they’ll win heavily tonight. JaMychal Green and Marc Gasol could work too, but not my cup of tea tonight.
NO:
Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday are the plays here, but I’m not sure I want either guy for upside against the NBA’s third-best defense.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Chicago Bulls (-5.5, ML: -230) – O/U: 216.5
————Pace> POR: 8th – CHI: 21st
OFF Efficiency> POR: 7th – CHI: 11th
DEF Efficiency> POR: 30th – CHI: 11th
Line Analysis:
These two teams played each other about three weeks ago, and it was the Bulls that did the ass kicking. I love the whole outlook of this game from top to bottom.
POR:
The Bulls have made vast improvements on the defensive end this season and that kind of clips the upside of a lot of their guys. The only one I’m interested in tonight, for value and upside, is Maurice Harkless.
CHI:
I love the outlook for the Bulls going up against the worst defensive unit in the NBA. Jimmy Butler has also seen his price rise, but he’s in a primo spot to do some damage here as well. Butler did the lead the Bulls with 27 points in the previous meeting and I’m sure he’ll do so again. One of the league’s best players up against the league’s worst defense…not much convincing to do here.
Dwayne Wade sat out on Saturday but he’ll be fully rested and ready to go. Bigs have done some serious damage against the Blazers this season so I really like Robin Lopez and Taj Gibson in this spot.
With Rajon Rondo suspended, a lot of folks will go straight to Jerian Grant…let them. He’s going to be one of the highest owned players on this slate because of his big performance (boosted by five steals) against them last time they faced off. I just don’t like him as a basketball player.
San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, ML: -230) @ Milwaukee Bucks – O/U: 206.5
————Pace> SA: 27th – MIL: 14th
OFF Efficiency> SA: 6th – MIL: 14th
DEF Efficiency> SA: 12th – MIL: 8th
Line Analysis:
This could be an ugly game from a fantasy perspective, so I’m definitely going to limit my exposure here.
SA:
Give David Lee a look tonight it tournaments. He’s not playing many minutes, but he does make the most of them. We all know the struggles that the Bucks have had on the interior. Might be the move of the century if it works out.
MIL:
Not particularly interested in anyone, but I suppose Giannis Antetokounmpo or Greg Monroe can work in this situation. Greek’s salary makes it awfully hard to pay up for when going against the Spurs.
Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets (-4.5, ML: -185) – O/U: 217
————Pace> BOS: 20th – HOU: 13th
OFF Efficiency> BOS: 9th – HOU: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> BOS: 18th – HOU: 26th
Line Analysis:
Buckle up, this game is going to be a dandy!
BOS:
This is a great spot for the Celtics up against the fifth-worst defense in the NBA. You really never know exactly who is going to be the top producer on this team, so you’ll have to look at the individual matchups and go at it that way. Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley get my stamp of approval, in that regard.
HOU:
The Rockets have a slate-high 112-point projection tonight so this is probably a great place to start our player selection. Point guards haven’t fared well against the Celtics dating back all the way to last season, but James Harden is…well, James Harden. Clint Capela hasn’t been as productive as usual over the last three games, but you can chalk that up to bad matchups and blowouts. Trevor Ariza could miss this game, and that would be good for Ryan Anderson and even Sam Dekker.
Charlotte Hornets (-4.5, ML: -175) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 190.5
————Pace> CHA: 12th – DAL: 29th
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 13th – DAL: 28th
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 7th – DAL: 15th
Line Analysis:
This game has the lowest total on the slate, so let’s temper our expectations in this one.
CHA:
Not much to like here but, from a $/PT perspective, Frank Kaminsky is in play. He should be able to get plenty of rebounds with all the impending misses we’ll see.
DAL:
Deron Williams has been playing well over the last four games. There’s no much upside from him, but I do like him as a punt at the PG position.
Utah Jazz (-2.5, ML: -150) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 197.5
————Pace> UTA: 30th – LAL: 5th
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 8th – LAL: 17th
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 3rd – LAL: 28th
Line Analysis:
The Lakers actually don’t have a terrible outlook tonight, according to Vegas. I never want to go against the Jazz, but there are just so many injuries to the Lakers right now that you almost have to take advantage of it.
UTA:
Rudy Gobert could absolutely feast tonight against the Lakers, who give up the most points inside the paint. Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood should be considered as secondary options on a big slate, like the one we have tonight.
LAL:
It’s tough to pass up on Lou Williams when he’s taking every possible shot, regardless of who they’re playing. Brandon Ingram gets some consideration as well.
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors (-13.5, ML: -2000) – O/U: 221
————Pace> IND: 9th – GS: 3rd
OFF Efficiency> IND: 22nd – GS: 1st
DEF Efficiency> IND: 7th – GS: 9th
Line Analysis:
This is now the second time this season that the Warriors will catch the Pacers on the back-end of a B2B. That’s not very fair, is it?
IND:
Paul George and CJ Miles will play tonight, but it might be tough to trust them on a B2B. Very bad spot for the Pacers tonight.
GS:
You know the drill- all the big stars are in play. No questions asked.
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