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Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, ML: -145) – O/U: 196
————-Pace> ORL: 24th – PHI: 12th
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 30th – PHI: 29th
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 5th – PHI: 24th
Line Analysis:
There was a big 3.5-point spread swing that went in favor of the Sixers, making them -2.5 favorites now. The Magic did play last night in Memphis, so that has a lot to do with it, but you also have to remember that the Sixers are well rested since Wednesday’s game was postponed due to that freak incident with condensation on the court.
ORL:
Nikola Vucevic has a solid matchup against a Sixers team that has given up the sixth-most points inside the paint this season. However, in two back-end games for Vucevic this season he hasn’t done much, mainly because he hasn’t played meaningful minutes. I’d be cautious to go with him in this spot and maybe even consider Bismack Biyombo, who has grabbed nine rebounds in each of those B2B games.
Evan Fournier has been playing good game/bad game here over the last five and, unfortunately, he’s set up for a rough one tonight. I’d be willing to overlook a pattern for solid facts- the Sixers are terrible on defense.
PHI: Jerryd Bayless (out)
Joel Embiid has an excellent matchup against a weak Magic frontline, he’s well rested, costs $6200 on FanDuel and will continue to see upwards of 28 minutes. Any questions?
I’m not particularly thrilled to roster anyone else from the Sixers tonight. O-Town’s defensive unit is pretty solid in most areas and I’m not seeing the upside for anyone else besides Embiid.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors (-10.5, ML: -725) – O/U: 214
————Pace> LAL: 4th – TOR: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 13th – TOR: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 27th – TOR: 22nd
Line Analysis:
The Raptors are on a special type of roll right now as they have won three of their last four games by at least 13 points. If that wasn’t enough, the Raptors are also 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games.
LAL:
We already got a glimpse of what life without Swaggy P looks like, and a lot of these Lakers liked it. However, they are in the midst of a very tough rough trip and tomorrow night’s game in Memphis is one of those that NBA Sleep Consultant Cheri Mah has labeled as trouble. Maybe the Lakers take it easy tonight, or maybe they wait until tomorrow. All I know is that there are 17 other teams to choose players from tonight.
TOR:
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should have no problem reaching value tonight, but I’m sure people will be on the idea that the blowout could deter from their point totals. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal and you should feel comfortable rolling out either guy. I also think Terrence Ross still shows his face in a somewhat profitable way tonight.
The Lakers have given up the most points in the paint this season and Jonas Valanciunas would like to tack on. Be cautious with him, however, since he’s only played 22 and 23 minutes in the last two games. JoVal had a minor ankle injury on Monday, so it’s possible that the Raptors are taking every precaution with their star center. I’d like to hear some news on him before going all in; should Valanciunas be limited like this once again, that’ll open up more minutes for a very affordable Patrick Patterson. Stay tuned.
Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics (-7, ML: -265) – O/U: 208
————-Pace> SAC: 23rd – BOS: 19th
OFF Efficiency> SAC: 17th – BOS: 9th
DEF Efficiency> SAC: 25th – BOS: 20th
Line Analysis:
We’ve got an interesting set of circumstances with tonight’s game since the Kings are on an extended rest after getting their game canceled on Wednesday night. I don’t think that the money line is nearly enough for the Celtics; that leads me to believe we’ll see a very close game, and maybe even another Celtics loss.
SAC:
DeMarcus Cousins has a terrific matchup against a weak Boston frontline and I feel very comfortable rolling him out in this matchup tonight. His price is a bit much, but you are paying up for quality here.
I love the outlook for Rudy Gay, and I would love him a lot more if his price were cheaper. The Kings pace has jumped up here a bit over the last couple games and that bodes well for him. If we do see a close game, like Vegas thinks, it’ll be because Rudy is chipping in for the cause.
BOS:
I’m not overly enthused by too much from the Celtics tonight, but there are a couple of guys I can make the case for. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder just feel like great plays tonight; shooting guards against the Kings are primo and Crowder has put up 30 FDP in three straight games, which is almost 6x value at his current price.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks (-3.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 210
————Pace> MIN: 20th – NYK: 17th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 11th – NYK: 14th
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 23rd – NYK: 26th
Line Analysis:
We just saw these two teams play on Wednesday in a game that went down to the wire. I do think we’ll see another classic matchup, but I’m going to temper my expectations for fantasy purposes. More often than not, when teams play each other twice in three days you’ll see them make immediate adjustments on the defensive end.
MIN:
Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be very popular for what he did to the Knicks on Wednesday, and for good reason. Typically, I’d fade a guy in this situation but KAT is from nearby Metuchen, NJ and was a huge Knicks fan growing up. There are tons of validity nuggets for this narrative and I like the idea of going back to it.
I love the outlook for Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine here as well. Wiggins is still ridiculously cheap and LaVine has some pretty big performances in his last five games.
NYK: Courtney Lee (out)
If Joakim Noah is out again, then Kristaps Porzingis should have another monster game. With Noah in the lineup, I feel like his upside is capped off a bit.
Carmelo Anthony really disappointed on Wednesday but I like him to bounce back this time around. He was putting up serious career numbers against the T-Wolves prior to that last game.
Either Derrick Rose or Brandon Jennings could be a great option tonight. These guys have flip-flopped good game/bad game over the last two but things will go back to normal sooner than later.
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, ML: -145) – O/U: 194
————Pace> DET: 25th – ATL: 6th
OFF Efficiency> DET: 18th – ATL: 26th
DEF Efficiency> DET: 10th – ATL: 1st
Line Analysis:
The Hawks are really struggling right now, losing seven of their last eight games. However, all but one of those was at home in the ATL and that is where they are tonight. Things should work out well for them, being the #1 defensive unit in the NBA up against an average offensive team that runs at a slow pace.
DET:
The price on guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris is still way too cheap. This isn’t exactly the greatest matchup but they could all work in a salary-saving effort. A
ndre Drummond will have a tough time down low, but those are the types of games that he usually shines in.
ATL:
Dwight Howard has a great matchup against a Pistons team that has given up plenty of profitable games to opposing centers. Most centers that excel against them have a profile similar to Howard, as they spend most of their time in the paint.
Paul Millsap might miss another game and, if he can’t go, you can expect Mike Muscala to get another start. Muscala threw his big chance last game directly into the garbage can and lit it on fire. However, he projects very well tonight, mainly because guys that play minutes in the mid-20s that cost $4200 DK/$3700 FD usually do.
Dennis Schroder is coming off a career-best performance in his last game, and now he’s got a favorable matchup against Ish Smith. I love Schroder’s outlook A LOT more if Millsap sits out again; don’t expect what you saw last game in Phoenix, but definitely close to 5x value on his bargain bin price.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2, ML: -130) @ Chicago Bulls – O/U: 210
————Pace> CLE: 11th – CHI: 21st
OFF Efficiency> CLE: 3rd – CHI: 10th
DEF Efficiency> CLE: 15th – CHI: 6th
Line Analysis:
Ding, ding, ding…ring the bell! It’s time for tonight’s main event! Based on what Vegas is saying, I love the outlook for the Bulls tonight. The Cavs are an elite team in the NBA…elite, I said! So why are they only -130 favorites on the money line? Granted, they have lost two straight games in embarrassing fashion but we saw them go through the same thing last season. It’s not like they’re totally done, but Vegas knows something we don’t. The Bulls are also coming off an embarrassing performance, but theirs came against the injury-ridden Lakers. One thing is for sure- we should see a very competitive game right down to the wire between two motivated teams.
CLE: Mike Dunleavy (doubtful)
LeBron James does have to come to the game in a full Cubs uniform- this being the payment for his bet with D-Wade over who would win the World Series. There’s really not much that you can do to add to LeBron’s competitive nature, but that and a matchup with his good friend should have him at the top of his game.
Kyrie Irving has a solid individual matchup in this game. Against Rondo in the last three seasons, Kyrie has reached 5x value four times in five games at his current price. I can actually see him going completely overlooked tonight, and that’s a big mistake. Kyrie has underperformed in four of his last six games, but a yuuuge game is right around the corner.
Kevin Love laid a big dud last night as well, but I can see Taj Gibson struggling to defend him out on the perimeter. Up until last night, Love had been remarkably consistent so we’ll just chalk that up as one to forget.
CHI: Doug McDermott (out)
I am completely enamored with the outlooks for Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo and Dwayne Wade tonight. In my eyes, Rondo is actually the best $/pt player of the three; he’s exceeded 5x value in all five games since returning from an injury and he’s just a tick under $6000 on FanDuel, where he is a much better play. I do like Butler a lot, but I wouldn’t call him a necessity on this slate, rather, more of a luxury. Make sure the rest of your lineup is in order before you make a play for him.
Robin Lopez now is $5300 on FanDuel but this matchup probably takes away any potential upside that he would have.
Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5, ML: -200) @ New Orleans Pelicans – O/U: 207
————Pace> LAC: 16th – NO: 9th
OFF Efficiency> LAC: 5th – NO: 21st
DEF Efficiency> LAC: 2nd – NO: 11th
Line Analysis:
The Clippers finally ended their three-game losing streak last night, in Cleveland of all places. Their spread and money line are too low for this matchup and I can see the Pelicans making a game of this.
LAC:
The Clippers got back on the good foot last night but no one in the Big Three had a record-setting night. It was actually JJ Redick that had the biggest $/pt impact with 24.9 FDP at a $4300 price tag. He hasn’t done that well in back-to-back situations this season, but he only played 25 minutes last night and this matchup against the Pelicans is primo. It’s not my favorite play, but I don’t mind Jamal Crawford since this is B2B set and he could possibly see more minutes.
Chris Paul used to play in New Orleans, and his numbers since departing Bourbon Street are pretty damn interesting. If anyone has a big game from the Clippers tonight it’ll probably be CP3; you’ll have to pay up to find out, but I do like his chances.
Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan always seem a bit overpriced to me, up against how much they actually perform. I’m fully aware that they’re great basketball players, but I would rather spend my valuable salary cap elsewhere.
NO:
If everything plays out according to Vegas, I really like Anthony Davis tonight. We have seen him reach epic heights this season and he’s put up 60+ fantasy points in four of his last six games- one of those he came just short at 58.6 FDP and was injured in the other. Unfortunately, if we look into his past against the Clippers we’ll see that AD has maxed out at 53.9 FDP over the course of his career. That sucks, but the way he’s playing right now has me thinking that it’s time to set a career-high against them.
I don’t mind Jrue Holiday and Tim Frazier either. Again, if all goes well for the Pelicans then AD won’t be the only one succeeding (err, maybe). I probably won’t take a risk on these guys but, if you do, just know that it’s a calculated one.
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs (-9.5, ML: -540) – O/U: 202
————Pace> WSH: 15th – SA: 28th
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 19th – SA: 6th
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 19th – SA: 12th
Line Analysis:
Both teams last played on Wednesday and don’t see the court again until Monday; this means we shouldn’t see anyone resting in this game unless they are legitimately injured. To be frank, the Spurs are just a better team than the Wizards and I like them to roll plentifully in this one.
WSH: Markieff Morris (questionable), Ian Mahinmi (out)
Markieff Morris twisted his ankle at the end of Wednesday’s game in OKC. If he’s out, you’ll see guys like Brad Beal, John Wall and Otto Porter get more usage. I really don’t like the outlook for the Wizards who will be taking on a motivated Spurs team that will be at full strength. Beal has been ??? lately and he did put up 43.7 FDP against them last week, but that was an unusually high-scoring game and I doubt we’ll see anything like that tonight.
Marcin Gortat could be interesting if Markieff is out. We’ve made it a point here in the DFS Army to attack the Spurs down low, especially Pau Pau. However, you might see LMA on Gortat depending on what Markieff’s status is.
SA:
I like the outlook for the Spurs a lot more here. The Wizards suck on defense, so hopefully Kawhi Leonard can take advantage of that. He’s been slacking lately, but the good news is that it’s brought down his price. I do expect to see a fully motivated team tonight and that could work in his favor.
A very sneaky play could be Danny Green. The Wizards have had the worst three-point defense for a while now and that’s exactly what Green is all about.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (-5, ML: -210) – O/U: 222
————Pace> HOU: 13th – DEN: 5th
OFF Efficiency> HOU: 4th – DEN: 20th
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 28th – DEN: 21st
Line Analysis:
I’ve been very impressed by the Rockets so far this season (especially last night) but I’m not sure how they are going to muster up enough energy for the second night in a row, in the altitude, nonetheless. There was such a major spread swing, one of the biggest I’ve ever seen, in favor of the Nuggets who are now five-point favorites. It was the Rockets who started out as favorites of -1.5.
HOU:
James Harden literally has the best matchup on the board tonight, but if you think fading him because he played a double overtime game last night is a good idea, think again. In both back-end games this season, Harden has posted totals of 60.7 and 63.4 FDP. Admittedly, this is a much different situation since he played 46 minutes last night but it seems like nothing is able to stop him while he’s running point for the Rockets.
It’s not a great spot for the rest of the team, but someone is going to have to be out on that court. I wonder if they give extended minutes to Nene Hilario since he didn’t even suit up last night, but that could be a bit extreme. As of right now, it’s tough to recommend anyone but Harden because I can see a few Rockets resting tonight.
DEN: Nikola Jokic (questionable)
Will Barton will be back for the Nuggets tonight, and that will surely take some minutes away from Wilson Chandler and Jamal Murray. I don’t think it hurts Chandler as much, but all of those minutes that Murray was seeing at shooting guard won’t be there. It is a terrific matchup for all of these guys, but it might be a situation to sit back and watch unfold.
If Nikola Jokic can’t go, you’ll see extended minutes for Kenneth Faried or Jusuf Nurkic. I’m willing to bet it’s Faried that sees more time because of the faster pace. It’s unfortunate for Jokic because Nuggets head coach Mike Malone said he was trying to get him more minutes in the rotation, and he’s deserved it.
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