Golf is back!
Only 2 months after the Tour Championship came to a conclusion with Rory McIlroy hoisting the Fedex Cup, the 2017 PGA Tour Season begins again Thursday January 5th with the SBS Tournament of Champions. Formerly sponsored by Hyundai, this tournament features every tournament winner of 2016. Last year Jordan Spieth ran away from the field, his final score of -30 was 8 strokes better than runner up Patrick Reed. There’s no cut so each golfer will get a full four rounds of scoring.
Pars are worth .5 pts, birdies are worth 3 pts and eagles are worth 8 compared to bogeys only being worth -.5 and double bogeys or worse are worth -1. This means birdies help 6 times more than bogeys hurt, and eagles help 8 times more than double bogeys hurt. Say you have 3 different golfers who all shoot even par through 4 holes. The first golfer scores 4 pars and he gets a total of 2 fantasy points. The second golfer gets 2 birdies and 2 bogeys and scores a total of 5 fantasy points. The third golfer gets an eagle, birdie, bogey, and double bogey amounting to 9.5 fantasy pts- 7.5 more than the first golfer who scored the same score on the leaderboard.
This goes to show that when you take the cut out of the equation, under par scoring becomes absolutely key, especially with a small 34 golfer field. We’re going to need to take a strong look at stats such as Birdie or Better % and Par 5 Scoring to determine who has the best chance to score birdies and eagles.
Quick note: Rory MvIlroy, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, Danny Willett, and Sergio Rodriguez will be skipping the tournament and won’t accrue fantasy points.
Course Overview
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is very unique since it’s the only par 73 course on Tour. In 2016 it was the easiest course on Tour averaging over 3 strokes under par. It has a whopping 6 par 5s including 4 between 500-550 yards so Par 5 Scoring is going to be extremely important. Another distinctive feature of this course are 6 par 4s under 400 yards. While accurate golfers have dominated this course in the past, there’s a case to be made for playing long bombers in tournaments because they have a chance to potentially drive the green and have a chance at an eagle. We’ve also seen good putting lead to success here as these greens are pretty easy to drain putts on. The greens are Bermuda and is a resource to see who excels at putting on Bermuda.
High End Plays
Jordan Spieth ($11,500)
It’s going to suck to have to pay up here but last year if you didn’t have Spieth in your lineup you lost- simple as that. In his only other event played here in 2014 he finished runner up. Spieth ranked 2nd on tour in 2016 on par 4s under 400 yards and he’s obviously an elite putter. He hasn’t played much since the Tour Championship but he finished 6th at Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge a few weeks ago.
Dustin Johnson ($11,200)
DJ is another former winner here and any time Par 5 Scoring and birdie making come into the equation he jumps to the top of the list. He’s fresh off of an elite season and a 3rd place finish at the Hero World Challenge. Look for him to destroy these par 5s and grab a couple of eagles.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000)
It’s a shame you can’t take all of these top tier guys, you’re going to have to make some tough choices. Matsuyama is easily the hottest golfer in the world right now. After an up and down 2016 season he’s caught fire during the swing season. He won the Hero World Challenge and WGC HSBC Championship, finished runner up at the CIMB Championship and won 2 events in Japan all in the last couple of months. He’s the odds on favorite to win so that and his insane form could be reason enough to go with him but it’s noteworthy that his course fit isn’t quite as good as Spieth or DJ. He’s not that great at short par 5s in comparison to the rest of the field.
Mid Range Plays
Brandt Snedeker ($8,700)
This price is questionably high which may deter ownership but after digging into the stats I think he makes for a strong play in cash games. He lead the Tour in Par 4 Scoring Average under 400 yards and he has a solid short game/putting game. He’s finished 3rd in 2/3 starts here and he’s fresh off of a win overseas at the Fiji International.
Jimmy Walker ($7,800)
I think everyone will flock to Russell Knox and Ryan Moore in this range and I think that’s a mistake. They’ve been great in the swing season but their course fits are questionable here. Walker’s is just amazing, it’s as if this course is designed for him. He’s awful at par 3s and this course has the lowest number of par 3s on it. On top of that the part of his game he’s best at are short par 4s and short par 5s- both of which are all over this course. I understand that he’s been pretty crappy lately but this happens every year with him. He’s shown repeatedly that once the Tour hits Hawaii and the West Coast swing he’s unstoppable. He’ll probably be pushing $10,000 in salary next week at the Sony Open where he’s won multiple times.
Jason Dufner ($7,400)
Honestly you’re probably not going to be picking from this range much since it’s probably best to punt with cheaper plays given they’re guaranteed 4 rounds. That said, I don’t mind Dufner out of the plays in this range and Vegas agrees. He has better odds than several of the golfers above him. He’s good at short par 4s, accuracy, and he’s a very safe and consistent guy who’s not gonna end up dead last. Looks like a solid cash game play.
Value Plays
Cody Gribble ($6,700)
He’s going to be really popular this week, everyone is going to see his 3 top 15 finishes including a win and plug him in over the other guys in this range who clearly just lucked out with a win. He’s a rookie so it wouldn’t be surprising if he just fizzled out but you must admit that he’s started his career off with a bang. His stats are far too fresh to be trustworthy yet so I’d only play him in tournaments.
Fabian Gomez ($6,600)
Gomex had a solid T6 outing here last year and followed it up with a win the following week at the Honda Classic, also in Hawaii. His Vegas odds are reflecting the fact that he was priced a little lower than he should have been. Towards the end of the season his Strokes Gained: Putting numbers were only bested by Jason Day so despite his par 5 scoring ineptitude, he should still be able to land some putts and score enough birdies to be worth playing for so cheap.
Jhonattan Vegas ($6,500)
I absolutely love this play, I think he’s way too cheap. He’s an elite par 5 scorer and this is a course with 6 par 5s. He’s played here once before and he had a crappy outing but that was 5 years ago and he’s clearly stepped up his game a lot over the last season. He’s a threat to score multiple eagles and has the power to drive some of these short par 4s.
Click here to access the premium cheat sheet for the week. It’s got all sorts of resources available- course history, odds, recent form, loads of stats, an efficiency scoring sheet, and a fully customizable stats cruncher. If you’re not a premium member yet sign up with promo code TACO for a 20% off discount. Good luck this week and all 2017 Tour season!