Game week 19 and 20 coming up. The second half of the BPL season is right around the corner. ALERT: weirdness on the horizon. We have 2 game weeks in the span of about 5 days, a lot of people hurt, stars returning from suspension, and AFCON 2017 looming. Rosters will be fairly unpredictable and, so too, will this write-up.
What we are going to attempt to do with this is talk more strategy than specific players. I will mention a few obvious players but the bulk is going to be more of how I expect each team to attack this weekend. We will attack certain players once lineups lock. Its gonna be fast and furious, on game day; but, we will get through it.
A note on AFCON 2017. For those that are unaware, It’s the African confederations cup and it’s a month long tournament taking place in January. There are a lot of African footballers in the Premier league. This is important because there is the chance that some of these players get rested ahead of the tournament and a lot will start to leave to train for it. We will get ahead of it and let the fish forget about that. We can expect that Riyad Mahrez will take off and leave Leicester City hurting. The question is just when.
Before we begin I just wanna say thanks to Gylfi Siggurdson for squandering a wonderful opportunity with his matchup last week. Appreciate it, buddy. I’m not discouraged though. There are loads of opportunity this weekend and I can’t wait to see what happens.
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Let’s get after it.
Leicester City v West Ham — Fuchs and Huth are back from their suspensions; Vardy is not. These are big additions to the Leicester defense. We expected a better showing from them last weekend vs Everton. Everton has proven to be a tough out over their last few games.
I expect we will see relatively normal lineups from both squads. West ham sits at 11 but a win and some help could see them move up 3 spots in the standings. They also have man u to look forward to when the second half of the season kicks off on the other side of the weekend. They may go for it here facing a weaker opponent and try to play a more defensive setup next week. Leicester is looking at losing their playmaker, Riyad Mahrez for AFCON. I think if he plays it’s in this one and then using subs vs the inaccurate and calculating, Boro team in game week 20.
This could be a fun one. Leicester have conceded at least 2 goals quite a bit as their defense just isn’t on par these days. I always want to say Leicester will right the ship but maybe they won’t. West ham’s defense has been much better as of late and Leicester is without Vardy. Despite West ham being the dog, as oddsmakers see it, I don’t have those goggles.
Leicester is 1-2-3, overall, in their last 6. They haven’t won in their last 3 (1 draw). This game seems like they will suck Leicester into a position where they press too much and they push back even harder. Both teams like to attack down the left and West ham creates more chances than Leicester. Give me the West ham attack. Payet is dangerous from a set piece but if I want to pivot from him, I think I attack the center attack and look for Payet to create chances and/or assists.
Lanzini is looking doubtful for this one and it could draw the Andre Ayew start in the middle of the attack. The formation is a bit up the air considering who is available but they had much success last week in the 4-2-3-1. I am not sure if Antonio or noble is the way to go here. Those two have 10 goals, combined, on the season. Carroll is good in the air but Leicester only concedes 4% of shots taken against them from within the 6 yd box. I think midfielders might be the way to go.
I do not expect Leicester to get shutout again. They should welcome back their best midfielder in Danny Drinkwater. This could be a good morale boost. He hasn’t played since the beginning of the month and will be itching to get back. He could be a good play, if he starts, as he and Albrighton should bring up plenty of balls. West ham also has been known to mishandle through balls. The weaker of the West Ham centerbacks will be whoever is playing next to Winston Reid. That’s who I would attack if I wanted to send Slimani through. You can also look to the usual suspects in Mahrez and Fuchs. I would look to that left side for chances created and a couple shots, though.
Burnley v Sunderland — Burnley is awesome at home these days. Sunderland should just stay home. -9 in their last 6 on the road is just not what we want. Further to that, they have only scored 3. I like that Sunderland have saved over 2 shots per goal scored. They give up 21 shots on the road and there are only 3 other teams on the slate that force a greater percentage of shots from long range.
Looks like the keeper is in play. I see this as a 2-0 game in favor of Burnley but the number of shots saved could offset those goals. Pickford is out of this one; and, according to whoscored, the backup doesn’t rate that highly. Proceed with caution but there is value there. I bet they pack it in. Defense is in play as this should equal clearance opportunities and they block the most shots of any team on the slate. Burnley is number 2 on the slate for blocked shots.
Since Burnley looks to get added possession in this game, I can look to the activated Matt Lowton. He was banned last game; so, should he start, he would be the type of person I could look to get a piece of. Stephen Ward also in play on the other side. This potential philosophy makes me look to the central midfielders. Vokes is the best striker Burnley has and because of that I guess the other forward they use is in play. I like my forwards to score goals and I am not sure these forwards do. If you think they do then either should be low owned.
Chelsea v Stoke — Welcome back Diego Costa. Please come and do all of the wonderful things. Also back is Kanté, so Fábregas should move back to the bench. Chelsea doesn’t have to play again until the 4th of Jan, so I expect the starters to play and play again on the 4th. Chelsea should be susceptible to some sort of a counter attack but I think Courtois should be equal to the task. I don’t hate playing someone on the wings for stoke but I am not betting they score.
For Chelsea, I think some extra shots could come from the left hand/left middle side. That right side for stoke is typically a lot easier to attack. After missing Christmas, Costa is where ya gotta think it starts. Hazard is always in play, as well. Keeping with the weirdness that is this point in the year I am gonna give Kanté a look. Stoke is better in the air so Chelsea is gonna have to make room with their feet and keen passing skills. Little note here, Pedro is out due to suspension so don’t expect a repeat from last week.
Defenses are in play here as well. Chelsea should dominate possession so I expect the wing backs to get forward even though they like playing the 3-4-3. They could be good for crosses and maybe even a shot or two. I don’t think this game will be stackable but you never know. The matches between Stoke and Chelsea tend be lower scoring.
Manchester United v Middlesbrough — Man U at home. To add to it, Man U has kept a clean sheet against Boro the last 3 times they squared off. I don’t see this getting out of hand but I do see the red devils winning and I will be somewhat shocked if it isn’t a clean sheet. Boro doesn’t shoot enough and they have the second worst accuracy in the league.
Boro will pack it in. We know what we can do here. They might get some counter attack out of the right but I’m probably staying away. What I do like is their keeper is in play, as is any keeper playing Man U in old Trafford. Man U will be forced into shooting from further out. I like the midfielders for the red devils.
Manchester will be playing a resurgent West ham on Monday, so be careful who might be up for substitution. I see some people getting rest in this one. Boro will be playing Leicester. Boro will probably look to play for the tie and then go out vs a weaker opponent. Their goal will likely be to get a point (doubtful) and go after the win on Monday.
Southampton v West Brom — we finally get some exposure to Southampton. In gonna say I’m rooting for West Brom here. I don’t think West Brom wins but I can hope. I know some wonderful people in Portsmouth and Portsmouth is no fan of Southampton.
This game will spend plenty of time in the West Brom defensive third. Southampton should shoot and cross a lot. West Brom can push up on the counter and they like to attack down the right. I don’t like this game for a lot of scoring. Southampton is hurting for playmakers. Their leading scorers are hurt. Dick van dijk scored their last goal out of the back. He is their best defender but could call for him to push up and help the attack. Hojbjerg could whip in some crosses, too.
On the other side of things, if brunt is starting, I like him. He should be involved in counters and send in crosses to Rondon and perhaps Phillips. Overall this game doesn’t seem to be one to help out too much. I’m looking at a goal a piece, perhaps. I would like to add that Southampton seems to like it rough. You wouldn’t think it to look at them but behind closed doors… They have gotten at least 6 cards in their last 3 matches, one of em red. Dangerous if brunt is taking set piece duty on Saturday. He could pick out his striker’s head in the crowd. Just saying.
Both teams have to play on Monday. West Brom gets hull. We like that. Southampton gets Everton. I expect Southampton to want this game more but I wonder if they have enough to get the job done.
Swansea City v Bournemouth — I see a 2-1 type game here. Bournemouth is favored to win but I actually like Swansea in this one. They put more shots on target than Bournemouth. Bournemouth gives up a lot of shots.
Bournemouth seems like they settle for a lot of long shots. If that’s what they wanna do then I would say look to their midfielders. Typically we like wingers over central mids. I would probably go to the right wing mids. We will see how they lineup on Saturday and see if it’s a good fit. 22% of shots tend to come from the Bournemouth right side as opposed to the left. Swansea should force the shot more central, as they only allow 13% of shots to come from the right.
On the Swansea side of things, they like to attack down the right. I might go back to Sigurdsson but I also think Llorente is very much in play if he starts. I think we are looking at open play goals from the Swansea side, so I may opt for the striker. Swansea sends in 24 crosses per game.
Swansea travels to Crystal palace on Tuesday. Good spot for some rest for those who have logged many miles. Bournemouth needs to get after it this match as they host arsenal on Tuesday. Careful not to overextend yourselves, Bournemouth.
Liverpool v Manchester City — This is the game of the week and the late game, as well. We need to be careful in attacking this one. I do think both teams go for it and hold nothing back. They are separated by 1 pt in the standings and the winner will still have aspirations of winning the league this year. The loser won’t quite be out of it but it would be a huge blow to their efforts.
Liverpool tends to dominate possession, usually 2 to 1. Man City will need to do quite a bit to break down their defense. Sergio Aguero is back for this one. He should start right away and I like him to score here. Services are most likely to come from De Bruyne and Silva. If Zabaleta starts at a wing back position then I like him to get forward and provide support. If it’s still Sagna then I think more will need to be asked of the defensive midfielders — Fernando and Fernandinho, who is fresh off suspension.
Liverpool forces their opponents to settle for shots from deep 55% of the time. I don’t think this is a spot to get cute but if I want anyone other than Aguero, it’s probably Sterling (should he start). Late game too so he will probably be lower owned but we won’t know on FD. The centerbacks should also be busy for city. Looks like an uphill battle for city and they would do well to earn a draw. I don’t think they can earn 3 points here.
Stacking Liverpool is going to be popular. Origi, Lallana, Milner and maybe even Firmino. I expect these guys to be high owned even as the late game. Liverpool has a consistent starting 11 and I don’t think they mix it up for this one, especially when Sunderland awaits you on Monday. I am not going to overexpose myself to Liverpool by cramming in a bunch of players in every lineup but I will have at least 1 Liverpool player in every lineup. They take the most shots of all the teams in the premiership and they put them on frame.
If he plays I think Milner has to be the number 1 defender option on opportunity alone. He takes set pieces and he even gets you a shot here and there. He also sends in his fair share of crosses. With man city playing pretty good defense he may even have some sort of goal upside, although I’m not sure how much. He should be heavily involved in this match, though. The question will be whether or not you can afford him. I’m certainly gonna try.
Be careful with selecting attack. If I hear anything I will let y’all know but Emre Can and Daniel Sturridge are getting fit again. Maybe they find their way back into the starting lineup. As you can see there are plenty of options. I know I said I was gonna try and stay away from players and shade towards more concept, but I just want to alert you to some developments.
If you’re a DK player, and you have the cash for a late swap, I do like the Liverpool forwards. City has allowed 9% of shots taken against them to come from inside the 6 yd box and another 50% from inside the 18. That 9% is tied for highest in the slate. Whoever plays any of the forward 3 spots has the chance for a great day. I won’t count out the midfielders, either. Liverpool just makes a great play in general.
The one thing I wonder is if city comes out in the 4-1-4-1 again. They used it against Arsenal and it really lessened their offensive punch. Part of that I think was the personnel they had to work with but it worked. Last time they faced a top side with Aguero on the pitch it was against Chelsea on Dec 3rd and they used a 3-4-2-1 and lost 3-1. The fear that Pep goes back to the 4-1-4-1 is what is lowering my exposure to Liverpool stacks.
Liverpool is gonna score and they have 3 goal upside. I think they only get 2, but 3 is certainly possible. You can use a footballer from this game in your flex on DK if you have the cash. On FD, if you are bold enough to venture into the abyss that is the late game, it could net you some sweet cash. I think it should be an exciting one nonetheless.
If you want to go clean sheet chasing, I like the following teams to earn one here.
Chelsea
Man U
Burnley
Burnley keeper probably will add more saves than the other two. More saves means more shots. More shots means chances for a goal. There is inherent risk in chasing the clean sheet so please be careful. I generally don’t recommend it, but I get it. You are screwed if you miss though.
Captain armband is tough this week with the uncertainty. I don’t want to give it to obvious players but this week is gonna have to be different. My captain this week will be:
Diego Costa
Lastly I want to just highlight that after game week 20, there is a bit of a break from The premier league. England has FA cup and League Cup matches to play. The premier league will return on the 14th. In that break, I will be trying to work on some new things for our research since we will have some contests under our belts.
I’ll see everyone in the VIP Slack Chat. Have a fun and safe New Year’s and here’s to 2017!
Treyj989