Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for advice and retweets from NBA beat writers as they pertain to your lineups.
If you haven’t joined the DFS Army yet, do it do it! When you do it, use the promo code (AdotWalsh) and that gets me a bonus. Hooray for me! But don’t worry, you get cool stuff too- 20% off for each month that you’re signed, which comes out to $16. Both parties come out on top.
DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP
There’s never been a better time to get registered as a DFS Army VIP! We just launched the Domination Station and it’s already spitting out winning lineups for our members. Our best in breed NFL cheat sheet includes custom DFS Army projections, Values, DVP, Targets, Workloads, Trenches Breakdowns, too much to list. The idea is to give our members the tools they need to compete with the big boys. The last, and possibly best part of our membership, is our DFS Army Team Slack Forums. All of our pros are fixtures in there answering questions and talking strategy. We all help each other and root one another on during big sweats. We’ve built a great community and the method works. If you want to check out DFS Army VIP Membership FREE it’s simple. Register for one of the DFS Sites below with a new depositing account. I’ll hook you up with a free month of DFS Army VIP membership as well as the links to download our DFS Strategy eBooks.
FanDuel – They are running a special where you get five free entries to paid contests when you register a new depositing account via this link
DraftKings – You get a ticket ($20) to the Millionaire Maker contest when you register via our link
FantasyDraft – Get a deposit match of up to $600 when you register via our link
Fantasy Aces – Get their top new player bonus offer
Boom Fantasy – Boom has a completely new take on DFS. Instead of a salary cap, to build a team. They have contests where they throw questions at you during the games. Who will score the next TD? What team? Which QB will throw for the most yards? They issue different point totals based on which player or answer you chose. The game-play is designed for casual players. In my case, as a Jets fan, it matched me up with an opponent based in Pittsburgh and asked questions based on the Jets/Steelers game. I tried it out and it was easy to play. We set up a deal with them where new users via our link, that deposit $50 or more, get a deposit match as well as $10 in Boom Cash which can be used immediately to enter paid contests.
Remember to email Kevin at [email protected] to get your eBooks and free month of DFS Army VIP membership when you register a new depositing account via the links above!
NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Tuesday – November 1st, 2016
HOUSTON ROCKETS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (-8.5/ML: -435) – O/U: 218
*Projected Game Pace: 101.55 (2nd)
Line Analysis:
These bastards are the reason for throwing everyone’s routine out of whack. Well, you can actually blame the Indians…for making the World Series. Whatever the case may be, I can forgive them because I want to target as many Cavs in this game as possible.
Houston Rockets:
It would appear that James Harden has a favorable matchup against Kyrie Irving…but did you know, Kyrie and/or the Cavs defense have not allowed a point guard to score more than 24.3 FDP/24.5 DKP? Crazy, I’m aware. For pretty much all of Kyrie’s career it’s been a rite of passage to roster point guards going up against him. Harden is a lot better than Derrick Rose, Kyle Lowry and Elfrid Payton (all of whom did not reach 25 fantasy points) but this could be an interesting reason to fade him.
Ryan Anderson hasn’t quite been the player we were all expecting him to be, and I’m not sure this is the place to do it either in a difficult matchup.
ELITE PLAYS: James Harden (only because of talent level)
SECONDARY: none
Cleveland Cavaliers:
On opening night, the Cavs Big Three feasted on a New York Knicks team trying to work a faster tempo into their offensive game plan. This time around they face a team that runs at like three times the Knicks tempo, so I think an interesting tournament play could be to have a stack of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. I mean, hell…it’s not like anyone on the Rockets is going to stop them.
I really like JR Smith this spot in the up-tempo setting. He’s only available on FanDuel tomorrow, but his $4400 price tag is a bit cheap for a guy who is slated to play 31 minutes going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA; he should fall ass backward into points. Iman Shumpert guarding Harden should mean he’ll be on the court a little more too.
ELITE PLAYS: Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love
SECONDARY: Iman Shumpert, JR Smith, Tristan Thompson
LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ INDIANA PACERS (-9.5/ML: -460) – O/U: 216
*Projected Game Pace: 101.60 (1st)
Line Analysis:
This is a great spot for the Pacers as heavy favorites on the spread and money line. However, you could also take a chance on some Lakers since this game has the fastest pace on the slate.
Los Angeles Lakers:
D’Angelo Russell could be a very sneaky play in this game. So far this season, point guards have been quite successful running right back at the Pacers and their up-tempo style of play. As you can see, most of these guys are scoring nearly/better than a fantasy point per minute against the Pacers. Russell’s price tag of $6700 DK/$6100 FD is for a guy projected to play 32 minutes and that would put him right at 5X value.
This may be a new low to my journalism career, but I’m going to mention the name Nick Young in a positive way since he’s only priced at $3500 DK/$3600 FD. Swaggy P reached over 6X value in his last game against OKC and he actually hasn’t been that bad from a fantasy perspective. Young has reached at least 15 FDP this season in all three games and averaged 27 minutes in the process. I don’t mind Jordan Clarkson or Lou Williams in this spot either, but they are the ones that are dirt cheap.
ELITE PLAYS: D’Angelo Russell
SECONDARY: Julius Randle, Nick Young
Indiana Pacers:
Before the season started, I proclaimed the Pacers as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference, but through three games it’s apparent that it may take some time to click. Just like the current Warriors and beginning days of the Miami trio era, talented players coming together for the first time will take some time to mesh. They had a rough weekend losing back-to-back games in Brooklyn and Chicago, so a “get right” spot against the Baby Lakers is exactly what they need.
Paul George has an excellent matchup against a Lakers team that has given up two big nights to superstars already- 79.5 DKP/68.4 FD to Russell Westbrook and 70 DKP/64.1 FDP to James Harden. He hasn’t reached 5X value on his price yet this season, but I think tonight could be the night. George will likely be guarded by Luol Deng, and that could drive some of his ownership down, but with this being the fastest pace of the night I like his chances.
Myles Turner has an interesting matchup against Timofey Mozgov tonight. Turner will have the upper hand in quickness, but Mozgov could certainly bang with him inside. I’m not exactly sure how this is going to play out schematically, but according to our projections Turner is the third-highest rated center on the slate. The Lakers have given up 42.5 DKP/39.4 FDP to Steven Adams and 39.8 DKP/37.1 FDP to Rudy Gobert so far this season.
ELITE PLAYS: Paul George, Myles Turner
SECONDARY: Thad Young, Monta Ellis
ORLANDO MAGIC (-5/ML: -200) @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS – O/U: 199
*Projected Game Pace: 98.25 (6th)
Line Analysis:
The five-point spread seems to look good for the Magic, but it’s the money line that has my attention. -200 is a lot for an 0-3 team like the Magic, but I believe that Vegas views their losses against stingy defensive teams like the Heat, Pistons and Cavaliers as a bad luck of the draw.
Orlando Magic:
The Magic are a talented team and going against the Sixers afford them their best opportunity to get a win this season. However, there’s no clear-cut target in this game since they all look like they can get the job done. In my opinion, Evan Fournier and Elfrid Payton are the guys I might take a blind shot on.
Nikola Vucevic is a decent option, but I feel like his floor doesn’t match up well with his $7400 FD price…on DK, the $6100 price tag is more favorable. He also to share time on the floor with two other guys and that makes the waters even more murky.
ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton, Nikola Vucevic (DK)
Philadelphia 76ers:
I don’t mind any Sixers in this spot, but we have the same exact problem that we do with the Magic- there are no obvious choices. One does stick out as a value play though- Richaun Holmes. According to our projections, the preseason darling has the highest value rating of any power forward on the slate. At $3700 DK/$3800 FD, Holmes has notched 34 DKP/32.3 FDP in 32 minutes. UPDATE: Jerami Grant was just traded to the OKC Thunder, so Holmes basically has no resistance to his minutes off the bench tonight.
UPDATE: Jerami Grant was just traded to the OKC Thunder, so Holmes basically has no resistance to his minutes off the bench tonight.
ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Richaun Holmes
NEW YORK KNICKS @ DETROIT PISTONS (-3.5/ML: -175) – O/U: 198
*Projected Game Pace: 97.9 (7th)
Line Analysis: This game is very unattractive from a fantasy standpoint. The Pistons play at a slow pace, and focus heavily on the defensive end. The Knicks will try to push the tempo, but I feel like they’ll be lured more into the Pistons way of play.
New York Knicks:
ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis
Detroit Pistons:
ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Andre Drummond, Ish Smith
SACRAMENTO KINGS @ MIAMI HEAT (-4/ML: 170) – O/U: 201
*Projected Game Pace: 99.45 (5th)
Line Analysis:
Despite playing last night after a cross-country trip, everything here is pointing a close game with the Kings potentially winning.
Sacramento Kings:
If the Kings are indeed going to win, then I would assume DeMarcus Cousins or Rudy Gay will be at the forefront. Cousins has a tough matchup against Hassan Whiteside, but if I had the money I wouldn’t mind paying up. Gay actually had productive games against the Heat last season, and that was with Boogie in the lineup.
Ty Lawson will continue to get the minutes since he’s the only point guard in the rotation.
ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, Ty Lawson
Miami Heat:
Hassan Whiteside finds himself in a decent matchup tonight against the Kings. Dwight Howard just posted 38.7 FDP against the Kings last night, the highest total anyone has posted thus far on the young season. Whiteside isn’t that expensive tonight, and this could end up being a beneficial play.
Goran Dragic gets to go up against Ty Lawson, who is playing his second game in two nights. Lawson isn’t exactly the most in-shape fella in the NBA, so we could see a lot of offense for Dragic in this one.
Our projections love Tyler Johnson as one of the top value plays at the point guard position tonight. Johnson has averaged 29 minutes in three games, but failed to reach value in two of the last three games- those two games were against San Antonio and Charlotte, two solid defensive units and slow-paced teams. While Sacramento doesn’t play as fast as they used to, they’re still not that great on defense.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (-5/ML: -205) – O/U: 199
*Projected Game Pace: 100.55 (3rd)
Line Analysis: Look how far the old man Grizzlies have come- they are involved in the third-fastest pace on a slate that doesn’t involve three or less games. Having the third-fastest pace and a total just under 200 is awkward, but it does mean that we could perhaps see a lot of rebounds. Keep that in mind.
Memphis Grizzlies:
Mike Conley is the third-best point guard on our projections tonight and there are a couple reasons for that. For one, his 32.2 Player Efficiency Rating is the most among all point guards on the slate. The other, is Conley’s matchup against rookie Kris Dunn. The Grizzlies are running a much faster pace than they have in the past, so you can really sneak up on some people with this play tonight.
ELITE PLAYS: Mike Conley
SECONDARY: none
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Gorgui Dieng and Karl-Anthony Towns together are a tantalizing duo that can truly be something in this league for years to come. However, it’s Dieng that I want to use tonight. Memphis has a big weak spot on the defensive end against power forwards and Dieng has been consistent in his first two games this season, averaging 36.7 FDP.
Kris Dunn will undoubtedly be a popular pick, but it’s Zach LaVine who probably benefit the most from Ricky Rubio being out of the lineup. Dunn hasn’t performed that well yet in his young NBA career and he has a very tough matchup against Mike Conley. LaVine is going to be the one running the show, and you can certainly sneak up on people with this play.
Andrew Wiggins has been scoring at a frenetic rate to open the season, but he isn’t adding any peripherals to the stat sheet. Until he does so, I can’t consider him an elite play.
ELITE PLAYS: Gorgui Dieng, Zach LaVine
SECONDARY: Kris Dunn, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins
MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (-3/ML: -150) – O/U: 206
*Projected Game Pace: (8th)
Line Analysis:
I expect to see a very close game tonight. Although this game has the second-slowest pace of the night, they are a few great fantasy options.
Milwaukee Bucks:
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great play tonight. I’m sure Lance Stephenson will be the one guarding him most of this game but the Pelicans are not going to be able to stop him.
ELITE PLAYS: Giannis Antetokounmpo
SECONDARY: Matthew Dellavedova, Jabari Parker
New Orleans Pelicans:
Anthony Davis cooled off in San Antonio on Saturday, but I feel like things will get back to “normal” tonight. “Normal” this season for AD has been point totals of 95.7 and 76.9, an area that is within reach against the Bucks. Check out what they have allowed opposing players in the frontcourt to do this season, and he is way better than anyone on that list.
Tim Frazier saw his minutes get massively clipped in the blowout loss to the Spurs. Don’t worry, that shouldn’t be a regular thing while the Pelicans are still dealing with injuries. Lance Stephenson could see extra minutes if he’s tasked with guarding The Greek.
ELITE PLAYS: Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier
SECONDARY: Lance Stephenson
UTAH JAZZ @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-10.5/ML: -700) – O/U: 187
*Projected Game Pace:
Line Analysis:
The Spurs are the highest money line favorite by a wide margin, but I’m not overly enthused about rostering any of these barbaric basketball creatures who just discovered fire and the wheel.
Utah Jazz: none
San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-6/ML: -200) @ PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS – O/U: 225
*Projected Game Pace: 100.10 (4th)
Line Analysis:
This is going to be the fantasy game of the night! The money line in this game is screaming for a close game, as the Warriors should realistically never be lower than -500 against a team like the Blazers. The Warriors spread has also gone down 1.5 points to -4.5 and the total has jumped up 2.5 points to 227.5. This is all good news for the Blazers.
Golden State Warriors:
The Warriors are still trying to figure out how this super team is going to work out. Kevin Durant is taking over the offense, and that’s really affecting the ceilings on guys like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. However, tonight is projected to be a bonanza of points from every which angle, so I don’t mind fitting any three of these guys in.
Surprisingly, the one guy whose role remains untouched is Draymond Green. He continues to put up fantasy points just as if nothing ever happened to this team. The actual points are the one thing that is usually down on him, but with the total being so high, Day Day G may be afforded more opportunities and it could lead to more fantasy points. He’ll go very low-owned with everyone assured to be on AD and Dieng. Check out Dray’s performances against the Blazers last season.
ELITE PLAYS: Kevin Durant, Draymond Green
SECONDARY: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson
Portland Trail Blazers:
Damian Lillard is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate tonight. Everything to do with the Vegas line is basically serving you Lillard’s performance on a silver platter. Take Lillard, watch the points rack up and get at me in the morning, peaaaaace! (Method Man voice)
Another play I am enamored with is Mason Plumlee. He’s a fantastic play schematically for this game since he’s athletic and can run the court with Draymond. Plumlee has played all three games against solid frontcourt defenses and performed well in two of the three games; the one against Utah was just awful. Besides Zaza Pachulia, the Warriors are massively undersized down low. The price on Plumlee is too cheap, the matchup is too good and I’m not passing this up.
ELITE PLAYS: Damian Lillard, Mason Plumlee
SECONDARY: CJ McCollum
MAYBES: Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner