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NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Tuesday – November 15th, 2016
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5, ML: -235) – O/U: 207
Line Analysis:
These teams know each other well, as they played in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and once already this season. The spread seems a bit low for the Cavs at home, so I fully expect to see a close game that’ll give us tons of hope for fantasy purposes.
*Pace- TOR: 24th / CLE: 12th
*OFF Efficiency- TOR: 4th / CLE: 3rd
*DEF Efficiency- TOR: 11th / CLE: 9th
TOR:
As always, it’s been the DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry show for the Raptors and there’s no reason to think any of that will change tonight.
DeRozan has had quite a last couple of days, averaging 34.7 points and shooting 54% from the floor en route to winning Eastern Conference Player of the Week. If that wasn’t enough, he also became the first player to score at least 30 points in eight of his team’s first nine games.
The Cavs did a great job of holding down opposing point guards at the start of this season, but they’re allowing an average of five more FDP per game over the last five games. Unfortunately, Lowry’s price has risen $600 from the last time that he played.
Speaking of raising prices, Lucas Nogueira is now a cool $4600 on FD. His matchup is not one of the favorable variety tonight, but you can’t argue with this guy’s athletic ability right now. His totals jumped through the roof last game because of five blocks and three steals, and that’s probably not going to happen twice in a row.
CLE:
There should be plenty of interest in the Cavs tonight- LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love…you know the drill. Interestingly enough, none of these guys reached 40+ fantasy points against the Raptors in their first meeting this season, but I’m sure all will be well this time around. I’d place K-Love at the top of the list since there’s a scarcity at the power forward position tonight, yet LBJ and Kyrie could easily be the top play on any given night.
JR Smith is expected to miss his second-consecutive game, and that’ll put Iman Shumpert into a bigger role. While he did play 32 minutes, there weren’t many fantasy points to go along with all that time on the court. Shumpert could make for an interesting GPP play (I guess) but he’s certainly not my favorite since the main goal tonight is to keep DRZ in check.
Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, ML: -260) @ Miami Heat – O/U: 198
Line Analysis:
Just looking at the matchup between these two teams, it would appear to be a close game but Vegas does not feel that way. The Hawks are massive favorites and it appears Vegas thinks the Heat will come out sluggish a night after playing a rugged Spurs team. Or maybe we can look the most glaring difference here, the Hawks ability to defend and the Heat’s inability to score.
*Pace– ATL: 4th / MIA: 23rd
*OFF Efficiency– ATL: 9th / MIA: 29th
*DEF Efficiency– ATL: 2nd / MIA: 6th
ATL:
Paul Millsap has seen his price decrease $600 on FanDuel and $200 DraftKings, so this is the best time to buy in on him. However, the Heat have been stingy against power forwards this season; they haven’t allowed anyone of them to reach 30 fantasy points. I can make the case to fade or play him but, with such limited options at the position, it’ll be your call to make.
I don’t mind Dwight Howard in this scenario. The Heat have a stud manning the paint, but he’s allowed three games of at least 40 fantasy points to opposing centers. You don’t get points taken away from you for getting your shot blocked. Howard has seen just below 30 minutes in most of his games this season, but I expect him to play more since Whiteside routinely plays minutes in the mid-30s.
Dennis Schroder looks to be finally coming into his own, putting up at least 33 fantasy points in three of his last four games. As such a large favorite, I think there’s no doubt that Schroder can hit that barrier again, but the drawback is that there’s not much upside after it.
MIA:
Other than Hassan Whiteside, I don’t have much interest in the Heat tonight…and there’s not much interest in him either. Dwight Howard will make it very hard for Whiteside to do anything around the basket and I don’t want him to be the guy I pay up for.
I guess you could catch lightning in a bottle with Tyler Johnson or Justise Winslow. Both guys have some upside, but I’m nowhere near all-in due to their bleak outlook in Vegas. Josh Richardson is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel at $4000; he’ll likely start at point guard and play minutes in the mid-20s. The team’s outlook isn’t that great, but J-Rich doesn’t need to do much on FD to hit value.
Charlotte Hornets (-1.5, ML: -125) @ Minnesota Timberwolves – O/U: 205.5
Line Analysis:
I believe this game could go one of two ways: right down to the wire or a Hornets blowout victory. The injury to Zach LaVine could cause some mismatch problems for the T-Wolves. As you can see, the T-Wolves have been incredibly efficient at the offensive end, but so are the Hornets at the defensive end. I’ll usually take the defense over offense when given the ulimatum.
*Pace– CHA:14th / MIN: 20th
*OFF Efficiency– CHA: 13th / MIN: 2nd
*DEF Efficiency– CHA: 3rd / MIN: 24th
CHA:
I love the outlook for a lot of these Hornets players tonight, but we can lump Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams into one likable group. Kemba gets the phenomenal matchup against Rubio and I’ll take that any day of the week. It sucks that Kemba isn’t at home, where he excels much more, but reaching 5x value shouldn’t be an issue here. Batum has been great in his last two games, notching FDP totals of 41.3 against the Cavs and 35 and the Raptors- tonight is an even better matchup than the previous two games. Williams has a tough inside matchup tonight against the T-Wolves, but it’ll be an advantage to him to pull those bigs out to the perimeter. Similarly-profiled power forwards like Blake Griffin and Trevor Booker had exceptional nights against the T-Wolves this season.
MIN:
The Hornets have done a fine job against opposing centers this season, but Karl-Anthony Towns is in a class all by himself. Unfortunately, we have only seen his upside go above and beyond once lately, but the price is still at a point that’s not exactly cheap. You may have more luck with Gorgui Dieng in his matchup. It’s been a known fact to put power forwards up against the Hornets, but even more so lately as they have given up the eighth-most FDP to the position over the last five games.
Zach LaVine and Shabazz Muhammad are doubtful for tonight, and if that is the case then Andrew Wiggins will be hoisting up shots once again at a record pace. Yes, he’ll see the defense of MKG, but the volume will definitely be there. Wiggins is a very similar type of player to DeRozan, in that he usually only contributes points and leaves the other peripherals for his teammates. While he’s at a different position, Wiggins is almost $2000 cheaper than DeRozan too. Nemanja Bjelica will be called upon again if LaVine and Muhammad are out; he played 41 minutes last game and finished with 45.1 FDP against the Lakers on Sunday.
Kris Dunn could also be an interesting punt play if he’s needed to play more minutes at the two, due to all the injuries.
Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trail Blazers (-3, ML: -155) – O/U: 213.5
Line Analysis:
The -3 spread for Portland seems to be kind of low, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Chicago pull this one out. It should be a great game, though, with plenty of upside for fantasy purposes and it also has the second-highest total on the slate.
*Pace– CHI: 21st / POR: 9th
*OFF Efficiency– CHI: 8th / POR: 14th
*DEF Efficiency– CHI: 13th / POR: 27th
CHI:
As I mentioned on today’s podcast, Jimmy Butler has risen from the dead and has become Jesus Christ in a Bulls #21 jersey. He’s had two games of 60+ FDP and gets a Blazers team that is struggling mightily on the defensive end. Most people’s eyes may automatically shift to LBJ tonight, but you can cut some cost and roll with Butler who comes at a considerable discount with a similar type of upside.
Revenge narrative! Robin Lopez returns to Portland and he has a tremendous outlook tonight for his bargain bin price tag of $4600 DK/$4400 FD. The Trail Blazers have given up two 50+ FDP nights to opposing centers this season; I don’t expect RoLo to hit that extreme, but he’s just missed the 30-point mark in his last two starts, where he’s played 38 minutes in each game.
If you like consistency and fantasy point totals in the high-20s, Taj Gibson is your guy. If you like upside, he’s not. Dwayne Wade is in the same boat- not much upside but you’ll consistently be in the 20s; I’m not sure you need all that aggravation at an inflated price. However, late-breaking word has Rajon Rondo questionable for this game and that could increase D-Wade’s usage rate.
Doug McDermott is out tonight with a concussion and that means Nikola Mirotic could see extra minutes…he posted a season-high 39.7 FDP in his last game.
POR:
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum look like pretty safe plays tonight. Lillard gets to go against the matador defender himself, Rondo, who has given up 40+ fantasy points already to Isaiah Thomas and Derrick Rose this season. McCollum has been very solid lately in four of his last five games- if you remove last week’s debacle against the Clippers, he’s averaged 45.7 FDP in those other four games.
I’m not particularly thrilled about much else from the Blazers, but I don’t mind Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner or Mason Plumlee as GPP darts.
Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Lakers (-7, ML: ) – O/U: 219
Line Analysis:
This east-to-west matchup gives us the highest-scoring game of the slate. The Nets played (err, if you wanna call it that) in this same arena last night against the Clippers, so the back-to-back thing doesn’t apply here. We just saw the Nets play a back-and-forth up-tempo game on Saturday in Phoenix, and it was glorious for fantasy purposes.
*Pace– BKN: 2nd / LAL: 7th
*OFF Efficiency– BKN: 18th / LAL: 11th
*DEF Efficiency– BKN: 14th / LAL: 20th
BKN:
The Nets have a tremendous amount of value but try to limit it to Sean Kilpatrick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker. Those guys have contributed a great deal of help to the Nets success so far this season, but it’s not like one guy trumps the other in tonight’s scenario.
Brook Lopez sat out last night, and he’s fully rested to go for this contest. The Lakers have been pretty good down low this season, but I expect him to reach value tonight without a problem. Lopez’s price has come down significantly so take advantage while you can.
LAL:
The Lakers are running a bogus rotation where many of their guys aren’t playing more than 30 minutes. I guess you can take a crack at D’Angelo Russell or Julius Randle, but you’re certainly limiting yourself. Where you should be limiting yourself is the shooting guard trio of Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams and Nick Young. All of them usually come right around or exceed the value at a discounted price on the regular.