Walsh’s Way – NBA Daily Breakdown and Podcast for Tuesday – November 29th

Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets (-4, ML: -160) – O/U: 196

————Pace>  DET: 25^th – CHA: 13^th
OFF Efficiency> DET: 24^th – CHA: 11^th
DEF Efficiency>  DET: 6^th   – CHA: 8^th

Line Analysis:

This game is right at the bottom of tonight’s list of totals, so make sure you limit your exposure to this game. It is worth mentioning that the Hornets are 6-2 this season when favored by four points or less. However, those two losses (both on the road, by a combined seven points) have come in their last two games. On the flip side, the Pistons are only 3-7 when listed as the underdog.

Now, there is one interesting thing to mention. ESPN put out an article before the season, letting us basketball enthusiasts know which games were some of the most brutal for NBA teams this season. Check it out and use it however you will. If you don’t click on the link, it tells you how bad of a spot the Hornets are in tonight. However, Vegas definitely knows this, and they’re still favoring the Hornets? Doesn’t say much for the Pistons.

DET:

Only one member of the Pistons reached 40 fantasy points against the Hornets last season, and that was Andre Drummond– 43 DKP/40.3 FDP. The Hornets have been solid against opposing centers this season, so I don’t feel like you have to force the issue here.

We can attack Charlotte with power forwards, so Tobias Harris and his cheap $5300 FD price tag are looking mighty appealing. He should be able to hit 5x value or exceed it, a situation that has happened in Harris’s last three games.

CHA:

I love the matchup that Kemba Walker has tonight against Ish Smith. We all know that Kemba is much better at home and he’s posted at least 44 fantasy points against Ish twice in their last three meetings.

Frank Kaminsky probably doesn’t have the greatest matchup on the slate tonight, but he is getting solid minutes while Marvin Williams is out of the lineup. The Hornets did play last night, so I guess there’s a small possibility that his minutes get scaled back. However, it’s tough to pass on a guy that’s averaging about 27 fantasy points per game over the last eight.

Jeremy Lamb is this week’s version of sliced bread, and he’s another guy that’s tough to pass up on at $4600 DK/$4000 FD. The production, especially the rebounds, are overwhelming to the point that they’re front-and-center right in your face. It’s actually Nicolas Batum who is the top-rated shooting guard on the DFS Army Projections tonight, but I’ll be interesting to see he or any other Hornets get the night off on the back-end of a back-to-back.

---

Los Angeles Clippers (-12.5, ML: -1300) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 217

————Pace>  LAC: 17^th –  BKN: 2^nd
OFF Efficiency>  LAC: 6^th  –  BKN: 20^th
DEF Efficiency>  LAC: 3^rd  –  BKN: 29^th

Line Analysis:

My beloved (poor) Nets are in for a world of hurt tonight as they take on a Clippers team they were thoroughly embarrassed by two weeks ago, in a 32-point defeat. Unfortunately, the Nets were without their best two players that night and mismatched at every position. They’ll still be without one of their best players in this game, but it’s not likely to make a difference. The Clippers have lost their last two games by a combined 32 points and I expect them to take it out/get back on the right track against the Nets tonight.

LAC:

I have no issues with any of the Big Three (Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan) in this flawless matchup. CP3 is the top-rated point guard on tonight’s slate, and for damn good reason. Brooklyn has the second-worst defense in the NBA and runs the second-fastest pace, which gives more possessions and the opportunity to make the most of them. His teammates, Griffin and Jordan, will be the beneficiaries of this as well. We can even take the NFL “QB/RB stack” approach in this sense and match one of them up, preferably Griffin, with CP3 and watch the points add up.

JJ Redick has thrown up two clunkers in his last three games, but Nets games have an unusual amount of three-pointers attempted. Redick should fit in well with this game flow and prosper in the process; I like him more on FanDuel where he’s $4300, but his $4800 price on DraftKings is tied into the 3PT bonus.

BKN:

The 217 total makes me think the Nets will get some type of scoring done tonight. If that’s the case I like Brook Lopez, who is becoming a stretch five in Kenny Atkinson’s offense; these are the type of centers that have had the most success against the Clippers this season. We typically don’t think of Marc Gasol as a stretch five, but he’s developed a three-point shot and hit five of them against the Clippers in both meetings. BroLo has made 28 three-pointers this season in 14 games, and he only had three of them coming into this season. Tonight, however, I think we can expect to see the type of line that Gasol had…not Boogie.

As for the rest of the Nets, I’m not too excited about anyone else. Sean Kilpatrick has been excellent since coming off the ball and going back to his familiar spot at shooting guard. The problem here is that his price is a bit up there and the Clippers have held opposing shooting guards to the third-fewest fantasy points per game this season.

I guess you could always make the case for Trevor Booker, but I think there are better value options at the power forward position tonight.

---

 Cleveland Cavaliers (-7, ML: -275) @ Milwaukee Bucks – O/U: 212.5

————Pace>   CLE: 11^th – MIL: 19^th
OFF Efficiency>  CLE: 2^nd   – MIL: 18^th
DEF Efficiency>  both tied for 15^th

Line Analysis:

Surprisingly, I love the outlook for both teams tonight. The Cavs should be much bigger favorites on the money line and this makes me think we’re in a tight battle right down to the wire. The first time these two met last season, the Bucks came away with a double OT victory before the Bucks won the last three meetings. Wouldn’t you know it? This is their first meeting this season.

CLE:

This is a great spot for the Cavs, as they should see their full complement of minutes tonight. LeBron James has performed admirably against the Bucks over the last two seasons; his lowest output was in a game he only played 28 minutes.

Kevin Love has seen his price climb all the way up over $8K on both sites, and that’s despite playing only a limited number of minutes over the last few games. Tonight, he should see well over 30 and that would make him more than valuable at that current price. Milwaukee allows plenty of rebounds and points in the paint, some of Love’s finer qualities. I also like Tristan Thompson at a great value for these exact same reason.

Kyrie Irving gets to go up against his old teammate and I like the motivation for him. Irving is the third-most expensive point guard on both sites, but the Bucks are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards.

MIL:

Matthew Dellavedova could be an excellent play going against his former mates tonight. He’s certainly got the motivation but, more importantly, has exceeded 5x value in eight of his last 12 games. We all know Kyrie doesn’t play the best defense, so this might just have the potential to be a great thing.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will have a big night if this game does indeed stay close like I think. He’s got a very good chance of going overlooked with Harden on the slate and so much value at the shooting guard position as well. The Greek will likely be guarded by LeBron, and that sucks, but I do like his overall outlook tonight. If you’re an optimistic person, you’ll find solace in the fact that Antetokounmpo has put up 50+ fantasy points in four of his last seven games.

Jabari Parker could be a huge factor if the Bucks do well tonight but he really struggled against the Cavs last season, never reaching 30 fantasy points.

---

Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 217.5

————Pace>  LAL: 4^th   –  NO: 9^th
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 10^th – NO: 21^st
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 28^th – NO: 14^th

Line Analysis:

Let’s begin with the Pelicans, who have only been favored in four games this season…losing all four against the spread and outright. The Lakers have been pretty good as an underdog, going 7-5…but two of those losses were against the Warriors last week. Regardless of the statistics, I can see this being a very close game and beneficial to our search for fantasy greatness.

LAL: D’Angelo Russell (out), Julius Randle (out)

Nick Young, Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson all have a great outlook tonight. All of these guys are priced quite generously and get to take on a Pelicans team that is much weaker defensively than the statistics show, especially from the three-point line where they give up 30.5 PPG, sixth-worst in the NBA.

Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr continue to get solid minutes at a bargain bin discount rate. I could definitely take the chance on either guy in hopes that he’ll come through with a solid performance, or at least get me another superstar into my lineup. Against the Pelicans, it’s better than a calculated risk.

NO:

Anthony Davis has only reached 60 fantasy points against the Lakers once in his career, a total he’ll need to hit to make 5x value tonight; he’s reached 60 FPs in four of his last six games (58.6 in one of them). However, this is a Lakers team that has different personnel seemingly every season and they are giving up the most points per game inside the paint this season. AD posted almost 50 FPs against the Lakers in their first meeting this season.

Jrue Holiday and Tim Frazier are two guys that should do just fine in this matchup. The Lakers have the third-worst defense in the NBA so far this season and have given up the fifth-most points to guards this season- not PG or SG specifically, just guards. Both guys have struggled mightily in their last few games, but tonight is a perfect “get right” spot.

---

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs (-14.5, ML: -1600) – O/U: 197

————Pace>  ORL: 24^th – SA: 27^th
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 30^th – SA: 5^th
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 10^th – SA: 13^th

Line Analysis:

Fun fact: With the exception of opening night, the Spurs have been favored in every game this season.

When you look at the spread/money line, it doesn’t seem like the Magic have a chance in this game. However, the Spurs have been favored by double-digits four times this season but have only gone 1-3 against the spread. I think we’ll see that trend continue since the Magic have been pretty solid on the defensive end and the two teams’ pace of play matches up as well.

ORL:

Nikola Vucevic is the only Magic player that I have any interest in tonight. His matchup with Pau Pau is one of the most favorable of the entire night and he’s been on fire lately with at least 42 fantasy points in his last three games.

SA:

I do like the outlook for the Spurs tonight, but I don’t know that I’ll be targeting a lot of their players because of the low-scoring outlook. Orlando has the tenth-best defense in the NBA, and that’s their only shot at keeping this game close.

Kawhi Leonard had a string of four-straight 40+ fantasy point games snapped on Saturday (against the Wizards, of all teams) but this could be a good spot to get back there. Orlando has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to the small forward position this season.

Pau Gasol has been absolutely terrible these last two games and you can probably leave him off your roster once again. The Magic have done a great job against opposing centers this season, and even more so over the last five games as they have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position.

LaMarcus Aldridge has shown signs of life once again, exceeding or being right around 5x value in four of his last five games. Power forward is one of the few positions Orlando has been vulnerable to this season, so this could certainly work out as a low-owned play under the radar.

---

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-1, ML: -125) – O/U: 204

————Pace>  HOU: 14^th  – UTA: 30^th
OFF Efficiency>  HOU: 4^th   – UTA: 14^th
DEF Efficiency>  HOU: 23^rd – UTA: 2^nd

Line Analysis:

In an interesting turn of events, the Rockets are now -1.5 favorites. Most of that probably has to do with the fact the Jazz played a game last night and tonight they’ll get a rested team that likes to run like the wind. The line swing could be a big factor in determining tonight’s winner, but everyone is in play for fantasy purposes.

HOU:

I’m not sure how people will feel about James Harden tonight against the second-best defense in the NBA, but I know how I feel. He’s put up at least 50 fantasy points in 13 of 17 games this season, and that includes a 53.6 FDP performance against the Jazz in their only meeting this season…and at least 53 FDP in their last three meetings.

Trevor Ariza has been consistently been hitting 5x value. The one drawback, however, is that he only put up 12.8 FDP against the Jazz in their only meeting this season. Clint Capela had a great game against them with 20 points, eight rebounds, five assists and a block. Eric Gordon also did well that game with 20 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals.

UTA:

George Hill has been great coming back from injury in his last three games with at least 34 fantasy points. He gets a fantastic matchup tonight against the Rockets, but I’m not sure how he’ll be handled on the back-end of a back-to-back.

Gordon Hayward has been awesome over his last four games, and he gets to take aim at an incredibly generous defense tonight. He did, however, falter greatly in the earlier matchup against the Rockets. I’m not going to worry about that.

The last members the Jazz I’ll recommend are Rudy Gobert and Trey Lyles. I like their matchups down low tonight, but I wish I could be 100% sure about how they’ll perform on the back-end of a back-to-back.

 

---