Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for advice and retweets from NBA beat writers as they pertain to your lineups.
Make sure you check out the See What Had Happened Podcast with me and Keith Hall. Subscribe to the DFS Army on iTunes, PodBean and most other podcasting outlets for all our great programming. Also, look out for the NFL Game Theory pod with us coming out tomorrow as we break down a handful of games from this Sunday in a very unorthodox manner.
Speaking of Keith, you absolutely have to check out the first edition of his NBA Daily Fantasy Bootcamp article. These beautiful words put together are mainly for beginners in NBA DFS, but I actually enjoyed skimming over the basics again as well. This is a great read, and look out in the coming days for further articles on this matter.
We have a short four game slate this evening, with the final game tipping off at 8pm (EST). Should be a nice and quick evening to handle our business and then get the hell out of Dodge. I think there are a couple of interesting spots to attack, but with the preseason finally coming down the home stretch it’s hard not to peak ahead to Tuesday’s opening night. I’ll try and contain myself, but the preseason ends tomorrow, folks. There are no games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday…and then…we get into this for real.
Before we get to the games, a word from our sponsor…
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NBA Preseason Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Thursday – October 20th, 2016
New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic (-5) – O/U: 201.5
-Roster News-
NO:
ORL: Aaron Gordon (QUESTIONABLE-sore ankles)
The big news for this game is that Anthony Davis will be able to suit up for this one. No word on how long he’ll actually be on the court, but it is undeniable that he’s one of the most talented players in the NBA. I’m going to have to look into the situation a little closer, but I’m definitely interested.
There are a lot of guys in the backcourt for this Pelicans team, but that didn’t matter for Tim Frazier and Buddy Hield last game. I’m a bit skeptical if they get THAT much run 30+ mins) tonight, but I could make the case that they will since Anthony Davis is back in the lineup. Maybe head coach Alvin Gentry wants these guys to get some actual game chemistry. Maybe I’m just talking out of my ass. We’ll see closer to tip-off.
The Magic came out in their last game looking like they wanted to be somewhere else. With the exception of Serge Ibaka, you really couldn’t hang a star on anything they did. However, this should be a “get right” night for them as the Pelicans are their dates for the evening.
Evan Fournier really disappointed his owners last time out, so I’d like to take that hesitation people might have this time and use it to my advantage. Fournier is still a lethal scorer and, against this porous Pelicans defense, it’s a match made in heaven.
Nikola Vucevic also fell into the category of those that sucked last game. He too should do just fine against the Pelicans.
ELITE PLAYS: The Brow, Frazier, Ibaka, Fournier
SECONDARY: Hield, Vucevic, Payton, Gordon
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets (-4.5) – O/U: 194.5
-Roster News-
MIA: Justise Winslow (OUT-back), Luke Babbitt (OUT-groin), James Johnson (QUESTIONABLE)
CHA: Marvin Williams (OUT-left finger), Cody Zeller (OUT-right knee)
We have a rematch of last year’s first round series, but things are a bit different this time around. For one, it’s the preseason (and that’s all that should really matter) but there’s also a couple pieces from each side that won’t be able to suit up tonight or aren’t even around anymore.
Let’s start with the Heat, who have Hassan Whiteside back. If you think that Roy Hibbert can stop him, by all means, go ahead. I am not in that line of thinking; Whiteside is as phenomenal as the day is long. His point guard, Goran Dragic, would be a solid pair-up in this instance as well.
Without Winslow, Babbitt and possibly Johnson, you can expect guys like Derrick Williams, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington to have bigger roles tonight. Gun to head, I like D-Will2 the most for his ability to play at the three and four. His rebound totals, however, will be non-existent with Whiteside back in the paint so you’re going to have to rely on him to score a lot.
For Charlotte, it always starts with Kemba Walker and tonight is no different if he plays. He missed the morning shootaround as a precautionary measure, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that. Miami was ranked in the top-third of each DvP spot last season, but if you look at the head-to-head matchup, I’m not scared to go with Kemba on a four-game slate. He’s also at home, where he likes to go bananas. Again, just make sure he’s playing.
All of the other players for the Hornets aren’t exactly in spots that I’m doing backflips over. If you were holding your breath on Nicolas Batum to have a solid game this preseason, you’re probably dead by now. If you’re dead and reading this article, that’s just flat out impressive. I really shouldn’t be THAT hard on Batum, he’s actually been fairly decent in his last two outings, but one of them was bolstered by three steals.
Frank Kaminsky and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could be used in this game as well. Both guys are great options with Williams out; Kaminsky has already been playing a ton of minutes and MKG will see minutes at the four tonight as well. One of these guys could certainly be your knight in shining armor.
ELITE PLAYS: Whiteside, Dragic, Walker, Kaminsky
SECONDARY: D.Williams, Batum, MKG
New York Knicks (-2.5) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 205.5
-Roster News-
NYK: Derrick Rose (DOUBTFUL)
BKN:
Well, I definitely still have the egg on my face from recommending NOT to roster Kristaps Porzingis last night. I definitely took his groin injury a little too far in thinking the Knicks would be cautious, but with Carmelo Anthony out I guess they needed to push the issue. Not too sure what else to say.
The Knicks are, however, on the back-end of a back-to-back set so we’ll have to see how the lineup shakes out.
In the event the starters play meaningful minutes, everyone is a go against the Nets (one of the worst defensive teams in the league.) If the bench gets a solid number of minutes, I like the same guys I listed last night for the Knicks- Willy Hernangomez, Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Justin Holiday.
The Nets have given us fits all preseason trying to figure out who is going to be playing meaningful minutes. All the way up to this last game, we have not been afforded a glimpse of what the main rotation of the Nets is going to look like. As a fan of the team, I really hope that we see it tonight. As a realist, I’m not so sure that we will. Nets first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson has a lot to figure out this roster that was pieced together in an unorthodox manner; there are a lot of young guys and career role players that don’t have an identity in this league yet. Interesting for Atkinson, but bad for us DFS players.
ELITE PLAYS: Melo, Porzingis
SECONDARY: Jennings, Lin
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls (-3) – O/U: 198
-Roster News-
ATL: Jarrett Jack (OUT-right knee surgery), Tiago Splitter (OUT)
CHI: Nikola Mirotic (OUT-back), Denzel Valentine (OUT-ankle)
*UPDATE: Hawks will treat tonight’s game as a dress rehearsal – link (Thanks, ram8727 from the Army)
The Hawks will get a nice boost playing at the higher tempo the Bulls run at, so Dennis Schroder should benefit the most. Going against Rajon Rondo he should be able to add about two to three steals to his stat sheet, as well as more points running around like a headless chicken. Chicago gave up the third-most fantasy points to point guards last season, and yes, Derrick Rose is no longer in town, but it’s not like Rondo is much better on defense.
I do like Dwight Howard as well, who is averaging 14.3 PPG and 8.8 RPG this preseason. I have to pat myself on the back since I saw this improvement in his numbers coming from a mile away. Now that Howard doesn’t have to share the rock with The Beard or Kobe, he can go back to being a useful option. Paul Millsap is a solid option here as well. It might take him and D12 a little bit of time to coexist, but this seems like it could definitely work out.
We all know the story for the Bulls by now- Rondo, Jimmy Butler, Dwayne Wade, Taj Gibson and even Robin Lopez all work in this spot. As a reserve, Dougie McDermott has been getting enough minutes to pay off on. Someone is going to get matched up with Kyle Korver at the onset of this game- my guess is that it’s D-Wade and that should elevate him to an elite play.
ELITE PLAYS: Schroder, Howard, Millsap (all three because of minutes) – Rondo, Butler, D-Wade
SECONDARY: Lopez, Gibson