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Walsh’s Way – NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Wednesday, October 26th

Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for advice and retweets from NBA beat writers as they pertain to your lineups.

Welcome back to Walsh’s Way for the first major slate of the NBA season. I have to admit, I got a bit overwhelmed putting this together today. I thought the preseason would have me ready once again to spit out 10-game slate writeups without any trouble- no, anything but. There’s a lot of work that goes into this, so I hope you enjoy it.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Wednesday – October 26th, 2016


 Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic (-3) – O/U: 199

Line Analysis: I don’t get the line on this game. The Heat are so much better than the Magic in every aspect of life, but hey, maybe Vegas is trying to tell us something. One of the first lessons I learned in the betting industry- if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

MIA:

OUT: Wayne Ellington (right quad)

With D-Wade having gone to Chicago, you’ll see the usage rate of Hassan Whiteside go through the roof. If you go with Whiteside, you might as well have Goran Dragic alongside to have basketball’s version of the stack. This could be a very contrarian way to go since two of the best fantasy basketball players are on the slate as well.

ORL:

OUT: Bismack Biyombo (suspension)

This is the perfect time to use the Serge Ibaka preseason scouting report to our advantage now that the regular season is here. Here are his game logs from the last four preseason games; I’m just gonna leave this here for you to view. Even with Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo (who is suspended tonight) down low, Ibaka seems to have made it his own personal world down there in the paint.

serge-ibaka-stats

ELITE PLAYS: Serge Ibaka
SECONDARY: Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon


Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers (-5.5) – O/U: 205

Line Analysis: Vegas put us in no man’s land once again with this line. In my eyes, the Pacers are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and the Mavs are moving in the opposite direction. The Pacers are fully capable of dominating this game so that’s the side I prefer to target.

DAL:

OUT: Devin Harris (left foot)

The Mavs are heavily-overmatched in this contest and I’m not sure that anyone will benefit. Total fade on the Mavs.

IND:

Paul George is the guy that’ll lead this team all season long, but it’s tough to pay the high price for him tonight. PG13 has to deal with the defense of Harrison Barnes, who isn’t a shut-down defender by any means, but he’s no slouch either.

I’m sure there’s some contrarian thinking into doing so, but I think Thad Young and Jeff Teague are the better $/pt plays from this contest. Both guys have incredibly favorable matchups and with the up-tempo style the Pacers play, I think it’ll be impossible for the old men of the Mavs to keep up. Myles Turner also gets some consideration as well.

ELITE PLAYS: Jeff Teague, Thad Young
SECONDARY: Paul George, Myles Turner


Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics (-13.5) – O/U: 212

Line Analysis:

My beloved Nets seemingly have their head on the guillotine as the largest underdogs of the night. However, I think we may get a closer game than people are anticipating with the total being one of the highest on the night. Vegas is telling us that points will be scored, and I doubt that the Celtics are going to score 130 while the Nets only put up 82. It’s easy to pick on Nets- their roster sucks on paper, they only won 21 games last season and there’s very little hope surrounding the franchise in general.

BKN:

We can go one of two ways here…

In the event of a close game: Jeremy Lin is going to be the leading scorer for the team this season, there’s no doubt about that. However, the Celtics were incredibly stingy against opposing point guards last season and I’m not sure that is the way to go. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is interesting because the minutes are there and he can do all of the peripheral things that garner extra points. Bojan Bogdanovic could be the silent assassin tonight- all preseason the Nets have been monitoring his minutes since he had a very hectic offseason with international basketball. He won’t be starting either, so he’ll definitely fly under everyone’s radars. But if you know basketball, you know Bogey can shoot the rock. Also, don’t even think about rostering Brook Lopez– the offense just simply isn’t tailored to the things he does well. It’ll be an adjustment period for him all year long if he doesn’t get traded.

In the event of a blowout: As a long shot, you can take chances on guys like Sean Kilpatrick and Anthony Bennett for garbage time clean up, but it’s a vulnerable position to put yourself in.

I came prepared with two game theories…you’re welcome.

BOS:

OUT: Marcus Smart (ankle)

You can go in any direction with these Celtics players. The Nets are massive underdogs and they are as bad it gets on defense, so it’s just a matter of selecting exactly who it’s going to be that excels. Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley are the two guys that stick out to me, but Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford are the guys that most will turn to initially.

Boston has a game in Chicago tomorrow night, so keep that in mind.

ELITE PLAYS: Jae Crowder
SECONDARY: Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley


Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors (-8) – O/U: 196.5

Line Analysis:

The eight-point spread is a good indicator that the Raptors are going to roll in this one. There is a sizeable mismatch at the point guard position and I can see that leading to great things for the home team.

DET:

The Raptors ranked in the top 10 against each position last year and not too much has changed with their roster, with the exception of Jared Sullinger who is out for 2-3 months. I get that the Pistons have guys that will get a ton of minutes, but I don’t think any of these matchups are ones that we have to attack.

ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Andre Drummond, Marcus Morris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

TOR:

Detroit has a pretty good defensive unit themselves, but the sizeable mismatch I spoke of has to do with Kyle Lowry going against the defensively-inept Ish Smith. A week ago in the preseason, Lowry scored 27 points in 29 minutes against the Pistons and added seven rebounds and three assists. With everyone sure to be in Westbrook’s corner, going with the Raptors PG makes for a solid play at low ownership.

DeMar DeRozan is another guy that looked great in the preseason, scoring 34 and 26 in each of the last two games, and he looks ready to go for the real thing tonight. He scored 26 points in 24 minutes against the Pistons a week ago similar to Lowry, and he’ll definitely fly under the radar as well.

DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross become interesting in a roundabout way with the absence of Jared Sullinger. With Sully out, you’ll probably see Carroll move to the four at times. The Raptors have a ton of options to replace Sully at power forward, but none of them are good (or healthy) and can do it for a long period of time- it’ll be Carroll by default. Expect to see Ross, even though he’s not starting and dealing with a nagging knee injury, get a significant amount of run at the minimum price.

ELITE PLAYS: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan
SECONDARY: Terrence Ross


Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (pick em) – O/U: 194

Line Analysis: Surprisingly, the line has moved to Hornets -2 and that’s interesting if you’re actually betting on the game, but for DFS purposes we should be glad that we’ll see a close game. The one thing that makes this game somewhat unattractive is the fact that they both run at a slow pace.

CHA:

OUT: Frank Kaminsky (right foot)

I’m not particularly thrilled at the thought of too many Hornets tonight, but one guy I like as an under the radar play will be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. With Frank the Tank on the shelf and Marvin Williams playing with an injured finger, it’s possible that MKG could log some extra minutes at power forward. Cody Zeller will return to the lineup, but he is very limited and poses no threat. Strictly a tournament play, but MKG can fill up the stat sheet in a number of different areas and should easily see 30+ minutes. In addition, Milwaukee gave up the third-most fantasy points last season to small forwards.

ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

MIL:

The Hornets have been so bad at defending opposing power forwards, so Jabari Parker is a guy that I’m looking directly at tonight. The price on a guy of this caliber is absurdly low and the floor is pretty safe. The one thing that hurts Jabari is the tempo of this game, but he should get a ton of minutes to make up for it.

The slowed-down tempo won’t help Giannis Antetokounmpo and when I first looked into his averages against the Hornets, I initially said, “Yeah, now how do YOU…like…them apples?” 12 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists were the findings, but digging deeper into it, I was wrong. The first and last of those games were pretty much throwaways, and the middle two were totals we could be proud of. All in all, I’m sure The Greek can do a decent job tonight, but I’m not paying that far up to find out if I’m right or wrong.

giannis-antetokounmpo-stats

ELITE PLAYS: Jabari Parker
SECONDARY: Giannis Antetokounmpo


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5) – O/U: 194

Line Analysis: This line had a massive movement to the point that the T-Wolves are now -1 favorites. That’s a lot, for any sport, and I think we’ll see big things from the young T-Wolves over the Grizz.

MIN:

These two teams just played last week in the preseason and both Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng had incredible nights. Both guys have enormous upside, but this could be a good night to take Dieng at a very low ownership level. Dieng doesn’t have to deal with Marc Gasol like KAT does, juuuust saying. I doubt that a lot of people saw that preseason performance, and either of these guys probably won’t cross too many minds. I’m not particularly thrilled about the rest of this T-Wolves lineup on a night with so many games.

ELITE PLAYS: Karl-Anthony Towns
SECONDARY: Gorgui Dieng

MEM:

OUT: Chandler Parsons (knee rehab), Brandan Wright (left ankle)

QUESTIONABLE: Tony Allen (knee), Jarell Martin (plantar fasciitis)

Mike Conley is the only guy I have any interest from on this team. According to our system, he is projected to have the second-most fantasy points for any point guard. Personally, I think there are better point guards out there but we’ll see about that.

Next…

ELITE PLAYS: none
SECONDARY: Mike Conley


Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) – O/U: 207

Line Analysis: The line on this game dropped to -1, still in favor of the Pelicans. This is definitely going to be one of those sneaky point productive games that we can pinpoint. I’m not particularly scared of either team’s defense so let’s make sure we have some exposure here.

DEN:

Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic both have excellent matchups at their disposal. The Pelicans are bad everywhere on defense, but especially at power forward and center where they were in the bottom five last season. I’m glad that FanDuel put Jokic at PF so you can now use both of them if you so choose to do.

Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton are also fine options. As I just said, the Pelicans suck everywhere on defense and that’s that. Emmanuel Mudiay gets some consideration as well.

ELITE PLAYS: Everyone in Nuggets starting lineup
SECONDARY: none

QUESTIONABLE: Darrel Arthur (knee surgery), Gary Harris (groin)

NO:

OK, let’s get it out of the way early- Anthony Davis is a glass house. There, we happy? Good. For all the shit that AD takes, he’s still a pretty good basketball player. It’ll be tough to pay up for him tonight, but I feel like you have to roster him most of the time, just because he does have the ability to go crazy for 60-70 points. I’m well aware that he’s burned us all before, but his upside is insane.

Tim Frazier could be a nice punt play at the PG position, and likewise for Lance Stephenson at small forward. Everyone is probably itching to play loveable college superstar, Buddy Hield, and tonight isn’t the worst time to do it. I don’t love the play, but he’s also not the worst.

ELITE PLAYS: Anthony Davis
SECONDARY: Tim Frazier, Lance Stephenson, Buddy Hield


Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 207.5

Line Analysis: I’m kind of shocked that the spread didn’t reach double-digits for OKC, so Vegas might be trying to tell us the Sixers have a shot to keep this game close. The Sixers are a pesky team, but they have looked so awful in the preseason.

OKC:

Russell Westbrook is undoubtedly in a great spot tonight, but will he be worth every penny? On FanDuel, Westbrook is priced at $12,000- which leaves you with $6000 for each remaining player, and that’s not terrible at all. If what I say is true, and the Sixers keep this game competitive, you better believe he’s worth the money.

Victor Oladipo started out the preseason on fire, but all those initial games were against European teams. Once he brought the competition stateside, he seemed to be more of an ordinary player that was standing by and admiring the Westbrook show. It’s going to be a learning experience for Oladipo, learning how to play with such a talented superstar, but against the Sixers, I’m willing to bet he does just fine.

According to our customized projection system, Steven Adams is projected to have one of the best nights of any center. Very interested to see how that all plays out.

PHI:

Total fade for the Sixers tonight. I really do think they’ll keep the game close, but it’ll be as much of a team effort as we possibly get. We got a lot to get to, moving along…


Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns (-1.5) – O/U: 212.5

Line Analysis: It’s currently at Suns -3, but they could catch the Kings looking ahead to tomorrow’s matchup with the Spurs. This is a great spot for both teams in an up-tempo setting with two of the worst defenses on the planet.

SAC:

Ty Lawson has already been told that he’ll play 30-40 minutes in the team’s first eight games while Darren Collison is suspended. So we get a guy that’s $5500 on DK/$5100 on FD, guaranteed for 30+ minutes and matched up against the team that gave up the most fantasy points to point guards last season? OK, I’m in. Going with Lawson is also an easy way to get Westbrook in your lineup.

A Kings write-up and DeMarcus Cousins didn’t lead it off? Strange, but with so much value at the center position, Boogie is going to get pushed to the back of the line. There are a couple reasons for that- a high salary and Phoenix wasn’t terrible against opposing centers last year (13th in NBA). He’s proven to be matchup-proof, but with so much firepower and value at center on the slate, I’m going to have to fade him.

Typically, Rudy Gay isn’t a great play with Boogie hogging all of the stats, but he did put up at least 28 FDP in all four games against the Suns last season.

Sacramento has their home opener in their new building tomorrow night against San Antonio, so if this game gets out of hand early on, we could have…a situation…on our hands.

ELITE PLAYS: Ty Lawson (expected to play 30-40 mins)
SECONDARY: DeMarcus Cousins (too expensive, tons of value at C), Rudy Gay

PHX:

Devin Booker is one of the main guys I have to put on my roster, chalk be damned. His price is more than fair across the industry and the Kings have allowed opposing shooting guards to consistently have big games- they allowed the second-most fantasy points to SGs last season. If you needed another reason to roster Booker, there’s a chance that he could see extra minutes at the small forward position.

Eric Bledsoe is as inconsistent as they come in the NBA, but tonight he draws Lawson’s defense and that’s a good thing for the Suns point guard. Lawson will be logging heavy minutes in this game, so Bledsoe should be able to add “tired defender” to the list of favorable factors.

TJ Warren is a nice value option across the industry and even though he comes off the bench, Brandon Knight holds some intrigue as well. Alex Len gets his named mentioned.

ELITE PLAYS: Devin Booker
SECONDARY: Eric Bledsoe, TJ Warren, Alex Len, Brandon Knight


Houston Rockets (-6) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 222.5

Line Analysis: This game has the highest total of the evening by a whopping 12 points over any on the slate. Even though this is the latest game on the schedule, this is where we should begin the search for points.

HOU:

In some alternate universe, James Harden could be forgotten about with Westbrook on the slate. It isn’t the easiest task, but it is certainly possible to fit both of them in your lineup- I know this, because I did it. The fact of the matter is that the Lakers are a collection guys that still can’t legally drink. Harden should feast with ease.

Ryan Anderson and Clint Capela are great “secondary” options from this game, but I wouldn’t even classify them as such. Anderson has already shown at times this preseason that he may be the perfect complimentary piece to go along with Harden. With Mike D’Antoni as the Rockets coach, he will hit new strides, and if Harden is feeling especially generous on any given night, Anderson will be the main beneficiary. Capela is a legit NBA center and I’ll be excited to see what he can do in this offense. He’s very cheap across the industry and I would say that a double-double is certainly on the horizon.

ELITE PLAYS: James Harden, Ryan Anderson,
SECONDARY: Clint Capela, Eric Gordon

LAL:

D’Angelo Russell is going to fly under the radar tonight, but don’t be that guy. Harden is not a (good) defender and opposing point guards playing the Rockets will benefit like no other. Russell had some excellent performances in the preseason, and yes it’s preseason, but Lakers head coach Luke Walton played his regulars more than any team in the meaningless season.

Julius Randle is an interesting play tonight as well. The high total spells well for everyone in the game, especially Randle as the Rockets gave up the second-most fantasy points last season. Granted, it’s a completely different situation in Houston now, but it’s not like their defense got any better down low with the addition of Rhino.

Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams and Luol Deng are all interesting for savings-based plays. Hey, it’s the D’Antoni defense they’re going against- I can make the case for the third-string point guard tonight.

ELITE PLAYS: D’Angelo Russell
SECONDARY: Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, Luol Deng