We’ve got one week under our belt, and it’s been a wild one.
Something we should all keep in mind is that professional hockey carries a lot of variance. The “starters” on an NHL team typical see between 22-24 minutes per game, while the third line guys see about 14-15 minutes per game.
That’s not that much of a difference when you really think about it.
The good news, is that the top line guys also see power play minutes and get the better scoring chances. This is what makes them the better plays over time.
But variance can always step up and get you. At any time a guy like Colorado’s Joe Colborne can step up and score a hat trick like he did on Saturday night. Our job as DFS players, especially those that play GPP’s, is to try to identify these opportunities before they happen and to get on the right side of them.
I would like to stress, if you’re playing mostly cash games, then use the consistent players and watch the money come in.
But if you want to take down a GPP every now and then, find the under owned play like Colborne on Saturday, and take the risks needed to complete a big score.
Tonight we’ve got 12 games on the slate. We’re still early in the season, so there’s not too much showing in the trends to base our picks off of. We’re still playing on feel.
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Here’s what tonight’s slate feels like to me:
7 p.m. Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils
This is two teams struggling in the early days of the season.
The Devils look like a team still trying to implement a defense-first strategy, even though they have some offensively gifted players.
The Ducks just look lost. But I’ve still seen some flashes of brilliance out of them.
I think this will be a low scoring game, but if it does bust open, I like the Ducks more than the Devils.
Anaheim has put Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry back together on the top line. This is a good thing because the two have played together for many years and are one of the best duos in the league when they’re on their game.
Getzlaf has posted 4 points in the 3 games, all losses, that Anaheim has played this year.
Any DFS plays in this game are strictly GPP only, but Getzlaf and Perry could be a good one. They’re playing first line minutes with Nick Ritchie.
I also like Ducks defenseman Sami Vatanen as a GPP play, as he’s the only Ducks defenseman that rushes the puck, and also see the PP1 minutes.
Last season I loved Ryan Kesler’s line with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silverberg. But they were a 3rd line then, matching up against the other teams best players. Often times they were coming out on top and were very low owned in GPP’s.
They’re still a GPP play, but it will all depend how the Ducks use them going forward. They are at their best in a checking line role that also kills penalties. They are a high-risk play tonight, most likely a fade.
7 p.m. San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders
The Sharks played last night, and even though they lost 7-4 to the New York Rangers, the offense looked alive and well.
The top line of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Tomas Hertz was one of the most productive lines in the league last season. And the Sharks rode that and their power play to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
When it comes to Thornton and Pavelski, if you take one, you have to take the other. They play almost every minute together and have almost identical stats to prove it. Thornton had 82 points in 82 games last year, while Pavelski had 78. They each finished the year at +25.
The difference is that Pavelski scores more goals, 38 to Thornton’s 19, and also shoots the puck more, 224 to 121. So with most fantasy scoring systems, Pavelski is the more valuable player. But if you’re going to rely on Pavelski for the goals, you might as well roster Thornton to pickup the guaranteed assists.
They are both solid plays tonight against a weakened Islanders team.
Also for San Jose, defenseman Brent Burns is hands down the best offensive defenseman in the league. He’s a good play in all formats every single night as long as you can afford him in your lineup.
As for the Islanders, the only one I really like is John Tavares as a standalone play. He’s currently on a line with Andrew Ladd and Josh Bailey, but the whole team has been playing so sloppy and the Islanders have been known to juggle the lines excessively, so you can’t rely on that line combination sticking.
7 p.m. Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals
The Avalanche played last night and looked terrific in a 4-3 overtime win over the Penguins.
But facing the Capitals on the road the very next night is not good for production.
Look for the Capitals in this one to come up big.
I like everyone in Washington’s top 6 in both cash and GPP’s. Pick your line and ride with it, because this game has the most potential for a lop-sided victory tonight.
The top line right now is Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie being centered by Evgeny Kuznetsov. They will be expensive, but this is one of the nights they should be worth every penny.
The second line is Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom and Andre Buralkovsky. This is one of the better 2nd lines in the league and might just fly under the radar with more people targeting Ovechkin’s line. I think they’re a play in all formats, but might be one of the more safe GPP options in recent memory tonight.
If Braden Holtby gets the start for the Caps, he’s also a safe play in all formats. Getting a win is a must in all DFS formats these days. Holtby should be able to pull one out in this game.
7:30 p.m. Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens
I’m not sure what to think of Montreal yet. It’s early in the season and the team is playing with confidence. They get Pittsburgh at home on the second night of back-to-backs tonight.
I don’t like anybody in this game for cash games, but it could have a couple of sleeper GPP options.
First and foremost, Carey Price is still out, so Al Montoya get the start for Montreal. He has played well in the first two games, going 1-0-1, and he figures to see a lot of rubber tonight. His cheap price tag could let you pay up for offense, and he just might steal the game, so he has GPP written all over him.
As for the offense in this game, two lines stand out to me.
I always say that Max Pacioretty is the worst good player in the league. He’s awful in his own zone and i see way too many turnovers out of him. But he has a great shot and is terrific on the rush.
His line has played well, Bredan Gallagher has 3 points in 2 games and Alex Galchenyuk has 2 assists. If this was any other opponent I’d want them in all formats, but they’ll stay a GPP option strictly because they face the Pens.
Speaking of the Pens, the best line in their 3 games has actually been their third line of Matt Cullen, Chris Kunitz and Conor Sheary. Cullen and Sheary each have 3 points while Kunitz has 2 apples. They’re also a GPP option tonight, because if they continue to stay hot you can afford them and a line full of studs. That’s a perfect storm in most GPP’s.
If you want to stay more reliable from Pittsburgh, Phil Kessel has looked good with 2 goals in 3 games and is a solid standalone in all formats. He plays on a line with Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin in case you’re interested in stacking. They finished last season hot down the stretch and still see all their minutes together now.
7:30 p.m. Arizona Coyotes at Ottawa Senators
The Yotes should be fresh tonight having only played 1 game this year, a 4-3 overtime win against the Flyers.
I watched that entire game and was very impressed by the play of the Coyotes top line of Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata and Max Domi. I’m going to call them a play in all formats tonight because their matchup is perfect.
Ottawa has given up 12 goals in 3 games so far this year. That’s 4 per game. You have to like Arizona’s chances tonight when they get Ottawa on the second night of a back-to-back.
Speed is tough to keep up with when your legs are dead.
The Yotes defense also looked surprisingly strong in their season opener. Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored the overtime winner and was a +2 with 2 shots. He’s a play in all formats either as a standalone or stacked with Hanzal, Vrbata, and Domi, who all see the PP1 minutes together along with Anthony Duclair.
With the Sens, the best option is defenseman Erik Karlsson. He has 5 points through three games and leads the rush when Ottawa gets moving in transition.
There are a couple forwards with 2 and 3 points, but nobody has really made their mark on this season yet, other than third liner Ryan Dzingel who has 2 goals and 1 assist. He could be a very low owned GPP play with center Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
7:30 p.m. Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
This will probably be the best game of the night, as two Atlantic Division contenders meet for a an early season battle.
Each team is 2-0 and are tied for first place in the division. However, they both play completely different styles, so matchups will be everything.
From an early overlook, I like the Panthers in this game. They have been incredible defensively, letting up only 2 goals in 2 games, and they were able to stifle a similar team in Detroit with a 4-1 win on Saturday.
Should Roberto Luongo get the start, he could be a dream GPP play. Tampa shoots the puck a lot, so he can pick up a lot of points with saves throughout the game. If you believe in the Panthers to get the win, you should want to ride with Luongo in GPP’s. Just know the risk you are taking.
Upfront for the Panthers, the offense has come from basically one line only. Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov, and Jonathan Marchessault have combined for 8 points in 2 games. The Panthers have only 6 goals thus far. This line has 4 of them.
Let’s talk about Marchessault for a second. He has looked terrific filling in on the top line and leads the team with 2 goals and 4 points. He has a lot of speed and a knack for finding the open ice, which is a great attribute when you are playing with guys like Barkov and Jagr who will find you if you’re open.
Also take into account that Marchessault spent the last 2 seasons bouncing between the Tampa Bay Lightning and their minor league affiliate. He is ready for the show and you can bet he wants to remind the Lightning of that in his first game back in Tampa.
8 p.m. Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild
The Championship era in LA is finally coming to an end, and as DFS players we should be ready to take full advantage of this while the name is still strong in the casual fan’s mind.
The Kings are 0-2 in a very competitive Western Conference. And while scoring 3 goals while giving up 6 doesn’t sound that bad, they have looked much, much worse in both losses than the numbers tell.
They’re also throwing backup Jeff Zatkoff as they’re starting goalie since Jonathan Quick got hurt in the first period of their first game. So look to take advantage of the sloppy play and backup goaltending while you can.
Minnesota has a great first line of Zach Parise, Eric Staal and Charlie Coyle, even if they don’t know it yet. I haven’t been able to see them play much yet this year, but it just sounds like a line that will work. Parise is the sniper that Staal needs on his wing, and Coyle is coming off his best year in 15-16 with 21 goals.
Because of the matchup, i like this line in all formats tonight.
I also like Wild defenseman Ryan Suter. He’s one of those players that seems like he never leaves the ice. He sees all of the power play minutes and also has a goal and an assist in two games this year. He works as a power play stack and also as a standalone play tonight.
8 p.m. Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators
Here is another Western Conference matchup featuring two teams that figure to be contenders this season.
I think there are plays on both sides of the puck tonight.
Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are the best 1-2 punch in the league. Seguin looks like he has fully recovered from off-season surgery, and you won’t find a more talented duo in the league. The problem with them has usually been finding a third to skate with them on the top line, but in the early season it looks like they’ve solved that problem with Patrick Eaves.
This line is as matchup-proof as an NHL line can be. Seguin and Benn are always a threat to score and Eaves has complimented them well as they all have 3 points so far this season.
If there is an Achilles Heel for Dallas, it’s definitely their goaltending. They might score a lot of goals but they also give them up.
Because of this, Nashville sports a couple of good options.
I like the top defensive pair. Roman Josi and PK Subban play together at even strength and also on the power play. Josi also blocks shots which is a big attribute this year. This is a defensive pairing that can be stacked together in all formats, as they each have a goal and an assist and 16 shots between them through 2 games.
As for the offense, Nashville’s top line looks good given Dallas’ goaltending struggles. Ryan Johansen has 3 assists through 2 games, and he’s playing with Filip Forsberg and Kevin Fiala.
It’s just a matter of time until Forsberg gets going, and Fiala is a cheap punt play option in all formats. You can stack the line or you can pay up elsewhere and then plug Fiala for his cheap price tag and hope that he falls into some points with Forsberg and Johansen.
8:30 p.m. Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is another team that has been dominant for half a decade, but looks sloppy in the early season.
They are 1-2 this year, which follows a quick playoff exit last year. They’re another team that has looked sloppy, and the frustration has already started with the coaching staff. Coach Q scratched defenseman Trevor vanRiemsdyk this past weekend after he played all 82 games for the club last year.
When you talk about Chicago and DFS you have to talk about Patrick Kane. He’s always a play in all formats as he’s still at the peak of his game. It looks like he’s back on a line with Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov, which was a terrific line last year. They’re a play in all formats, because their larger body of work says they are, but so far this season they are on the lower end of the cash game spectrum.
The Flyers are looking like a team on the rise this year. For the last couple of season’s they have been a one-trick pony, going only as far as Giroux’s line and the power play would take them.
In the first two games of the year, they seem to have found some secondary scoring.
The best line has been the second line of Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek and rookie Travis Konecny. Couturier has 2 goals and Konecny has 3 assists.
Konecny is another player that you can add to the impressive rookie class of 2016-17. He has some of the quickest hands that have ever donned a Flyers uniform, and his supporting cast will lead to increased production from all of them. They’re a GPP option for now, but i wouldn’t be surprised if they progress into a consistent option by mid-season.
The PP1 for Philly has always been a pretty decent option for DFS players, and right now it’s Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Voracek, Nick Cousins and Shayne Gostisbehere.
Giroux and Simmonds see time together at even strength with winger Michael Raffl.
Raffl has 1 goal through 2 games and will have one more game on the top unit until Brayden Schenn returns from his suspension. So if you’re looking for a cheap GPP punt play, Raffl has one more game to give this to you before he returns to a checking line role.
9 p.m. Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames
If you were just to look at the stat lines for the Calgary Flames you would probably want to stay away from top line forwards Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. They’ve combined for 2 points and a -7 through 3 games this year.
But this is a perfect example where i think that watching the games can be your biggest asset.
Yes, the Flames are 0-2-1 and that is a horrific stat line. But these two have played much better than their stats reflect, which leads me to believe that a breakthrough is on the way.
Gaudreau has been a neutral zone force this year, carrying the puck between the blues with confidence and finding the holes in the defense. Monahan has looked tough on the wall and has decent hands for a bigger guy. The bounces haven’t gone their way yet, but this is a team that always plays better at home, ad tonight they have a solid matchup to find the scoresheet.
Gaudreau and Monahan are a play in all formats tonight and i expect them to get the job done against Buffalo.
Don’t get me wrong, the Sabres have looked surprisingly good this year, Ryan O’Reily in particular, but this is still a team that’s beat up with injuries to top 6 players Jack Eichel and Evander Kane.
They’re susceptible to giving up goals and Gaudreau and Monahan will take advantage tonight at home.
As of now, Kris Versteeg is seeing the first line minutes with Gaudreau and Monahan, and is a solid plug play even if you’re not stacking with the two studs.
On defense i like Mark Giordano for the flames as he rushes the puck and sees the PP1 minutes. He also blocks shots.
Then there’s the goaltending situation. It looks like the Flames have already given up on Brian Elliot as they’re starting Chad Johnson tonight.
Johnson is a career backup, but he played well in Calgary’s 2-1 OT loss to Vancouver on Saturday, so the Flames will continue to throw him. This is a team desperate to stay in contention, so they will be riding whoever is hot all season long.
If you want to look at a contrarian play, the Sabres will offer one for you tonight. Buffaloes top line of Sam Reinhart, O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo should get some GPP consideration as Calgary has looked weak on defense in 2 of their 3 games this year.
9 p.m. Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid is probably the most skilled hockey player i’ve had the pleasure of watching play.
He’s only 19 years old but he’s able to pull off plays at full speed that most players struggle with while standing still.
One of my favorite plays that I’ve seen McDavid use throughout the preseason and the first couple of games is when he’s walking out of the corner, and fakes a look to the outside then takes a hard cut to the inside for a shot or a backdoor pass.
Again, he does this at full speed, so it’s very hard for the defense to adapt, and his hands are quick enough to react to however they play him.
This is important because he’s now playing on a line with Milan Lucic who is able to win battles in the corners and get the puck to McDavid on the halfwall. The chemistry between this line is already impressive and will only get better as the season goes on.
McDavid, Lucic, and Jordan Eberle are a play tonight in all formats against a weak opponent.
McDavid is one of those players that can explode for 5 points on any night. You don’t want to be the guy that fades him when he does.
For Carolina, there’s really only one player i would look at for GPP consideration tonight, and that’s defenseman Justin Faulk. All of Carolina’s offense runs through his stick.
10 p.m. St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks
St. Louis is out to an early 3-0 record, and they’ve looked just as impressive as their record shows.
The Blues have 2 lines that have looked pretty good, but the top line featuring Alex Steen and Vlad Tarasenko is the go-to line tonight.
Tarasenko has 3 goals and 5 points through 3 games. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as he is their franchise forward, and he also shoots the puck. He has registered 13 shots already this year. The more he shoots, the more he will score. And keep in mine that shots along are worth points on all DFS sites. Tarasenko is a play in all formats. He’s playing on a line with Steen and Jaden Schwartz.
I also like Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. He played above his projections with 3 points in the first game of the season, and nothing since then, but he looks confident on the ice, taking the extra step to make a solid breakout pass and also stretching the ice when it’s needed. He sees the PP1 minutes and is a play in all formats as well.
The Canucks are 2-0 this year but haven’t looked as good as their record says. The Sedin twins are sitting on one point apiece, and the offense has had trouble getting the cycle game going, which is where the Sedin’s are at their best.
A GPP play from Vancouver would be defenseman Alex Edler, who should be cheap and also sees the PP1 minutes. He’s a solid Standalone play but could stack well with the Sedin’s in a contrarian role.
Best of luck tonight and see you in the DFS Army SlackChat!