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Geek’s Vegas Lines Week 7 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy and Game Breakdown

Welcome back to another week of the Geek’s analysis of the Vegas Lines/Daily Fantasy Football Strategy. Our DFS Army team seems to be hitting full steam as we approach the halfway point of the season. It makes sense to look at the games/players with an emphasis on quantitative analysis; this leads to positive results, particularly, as more and more data pours in. I got a ton of messages/tweets this week from readers, as well as from our VIP members in our slack forums, with screen shots of big scores and high GPP placements. It makes sense. Last week in my player picks I highlighted Cam Meredith, Kenny Britt, Michael Thomas, Tavon Austin, John Brown and Cole Beasley as my primary core plays. We needed to save salary at WR last week to afford to pay for all the stud RBs in great spots. Of the core group of WR salary-savers, all but Austin and Brown returned well over 4x tournament value on DraftKings. Mixed in with the right QB-WR stacks, that cheap core of top scoring players really paid off. Hopefully, we can keep that going this week.


Football is a high variance sport. It’s not the highest but it’s up there. One of the things I talk about a ton in this column is game flow. My goal is to interpret the Vegas Lines on each game to try and decipher how things will play out. That’s just the first step in the process. The next step is to correctly determine the best way to play said game flow. I want to look back at a couple of games from last week to point out how all of this comes together and I’m also going to derive a new soft rule of thumb based off of this analysis.

NEW GPP RULE OF THUMB

Let’s take a look at a couple of games that played out in interesting ways. Looking at the lines and stats last week the  game that stood out the most to me was the Jets at Cardinals; Vegas had a fairly high line on the game and Arizona was a heavy favorite. The Jets came in sporting a top five run defense, while their passing defense was last in the league. Arizona sports a top-ranked defense that plays better at home than on the road. The Vegas Line on this game basically begged us to play Arizona’s passing game and defense. As a Jets fan, I knew that this would be an ass whooping for my team and I expected a lopsided score. Since the Jets were considered a run-stopping defense, I looked to the Arizona passing game as being in a great spot this week. Then when the game started, things went differently. The Jets defense couldn’t stop the run and David Johnson wound up with three TDs while the Arizona passing game never got off the ground.

These things happen but it was a reminder of why we like to stack defenses with RBs. Passing games work out better in close games, and looking at some of the other games this week we saw big games from other RBs that cut heavily into their QB’s production. Jonathan Stewart hit paydirt twice which limited the passing stats for Carolina’s offense. Lamar Miller’s big day put a damper on the Osweiller to Hopkins stack. Cristine Michael’s big day hurt the Wilson to Baldwin/Graham stacks. On the flipside, White’s big day did nothing to damper Tom Brady’s stats. The takeaway? Here’s what we know as a certainty in our GPP lineups- We aren’t going to win unless all of our players have big days. That is the one absolute that we have to work with.

As we consider the team totals every week in our Vegas Lines analysis, let’s assume a team is projected to score 25 points this week. Let’s also assume the line is correct and the team should score three TDs and a field goal. If we are going to win our GPP entry using a QB-WR stack, we want that QB to get a piece of all three TDs. Hopefully, our WR will be involved with two of them. That doesn’t leave much room for our RB to grab one or even. Gasp! Two of those TDs, particularly, if they come via the run. So, while there isn’t necessarily a negative correlation between QB and RB play overall, there is a negative correlation at the top end of the spectrum which is where we need to operate when targeting GPP wins.

GPP/Hybrid Rule of Thumb – Never pair an RB with their QB in a GPP entry unless it is a punt priced RB or onr that is primarily a pass catcher.


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Week 7 Vegas Lines Analysis

Before I dive into this week’s game breakdowns I wanted to share one of the charts we include in the spreadsheet we provide to our DFS Army VIP Members. The following chart ranks fantasy points allowed by position. When I analyze a game this chart is my first reference point. Notice that Detroit allows the most fantasy points to QBs and WRs. That’s what got us on Britt last week. I’m sure we will continue to exploit that stat. On the flipside, The Colts and Saints are the worst teams against opposing RBs. Last week Lamar Miller and Jonathan Stewart both returned GPP winning value. The numbers here tell the tale.

week7dvp

 


 

Thursday Night Football

at Green Bay -7.5 Chicago 46

The Thursday night game starts with a bang, as the Bears travel to Green Bay as -7.5 point underdogs in a game that Vegas slapped a middling 46-point total on. Referencing the chart above, we can see that Chicago is middle of the road in all the defensive categories. The Packers have stopped the run but have been torched via the air.

Obviously, Vegas is expecting a big win by the Packers here. It’s worth noting that the line moved from -9 to -7.5 on the news that Eddie Lacy and James Starks were ruled out. The lack of viable RBs on the roster means that most of the scoring will come via the arm of Aaron Rodgers. They have been using a combination of Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery in the backup RB role. The Vegas implied total for the Packers here is 26.5 points and that means we can expect about three TDs from the Pack this week. If they aren’t going to their RBs, they should move the ball via Rodgers and his pass catchers. Last week, Davonta Adams exited the game with an apparent concussion. In his absence, Ty Montgomery stepped into the WR3 role and wound up with a massive statistical performance. Montgomery played in both the passing game as well as out of the backfield in designed check-down plays; the Packers coaching staff like him and he should continue to be heavily involved in the offense with Adams likely out. Jordy Nelson remains an every-week stud and Randal Cobb has come on strong these past two weeks as well. Cobb is also used on occasion out of the backfield for the Packers.

The Bears take on a Packers defense that remains very weak against opposing QBs and WRs. Statistically, they are giving up the most fantasy points of any team to enemy pass catchers. The line on this game assumes the Bears will only score 18.5 points., so if I were a betting man, I’d take the over on that. Hoyer has been hot to start his Bears career as he’s passed for over 300 yards in every start this season. Now he gets to take on a league-worst Packers secondary. To make matters more interesting, Eddie Royal got even more banged up last week, narrowing the potential target pool for Hoyer. Cam Meredith has been spectacular since taking over the WR2 spot from the injured Kevin White. He and Alshon are in line for a large workload. The Packers do one thing really well defensively- stopping the run. That should limit Jordan Howard in favor of the pass catchers. With Royal likely out, I’m also expecting a few extra targets for Zach Miller. The Packers have been torched by enemy TE’s this season ranking 25th in points allowed to the position. Miller was an easy all in call in my Monday-Thursday lineups this week.

Elite Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Cam Meredith, Ty Montgomery, Alshon Jeffrey, Bryan Hoyer, Zack Miller

Secondary Plays: Randall Cobb, Jordan Howard


Sunday Morning – 9:30 ET

NY Giants -3 Los Angeles (in London) 44

On Sunday morning the Giants take on the Rams in London as three-point favorites in a game with a low total. The Giants bring a middle of the road defense to this game, while the Rams defense has been nothing special to start the season.

Last week, Eli hooked up with Odell Beckham, Jr. to the tune of eight receptions, 222 yards and two TDs. Eli is a streaky QB overall and if he starts to heat up it’s worth taking notice. Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepherd continue to average between seven and eight targets per game each, limiting the potential scoring for both guys. At RB, Rashad Jennings returned with a (insert sound of a balloon deflating here) pheeeeee last week. The Giants running game remains an ugly RBBC disaster at the moment. Bobby Rainey takes the passing down work while Jennings splits carries with Orleans Darkwa in running situations.

The Rams are coming off their best offensive output of the season last week. Case Keenum was actually the top passer last week on a points per dollar basis. Last week here in the column, and all over our picks and projections, we highlighted Kenny Britt as a top pt/$ play. He delivered in miraculous fashion to the tune of seven receptions, 136 yards and two TDs. Britt has actually been consistent to start this season delivering an average of five receptions and 70 yards per game before this week’s explosion. His salary got a little more expensive this week but I expect him to be a popular punt play in T-M lineups. The sneaky play in this game may be Todd Gurley. He’s been incredibly quiet so far and DraftKings salary this week is a season low $6100. He started the season up at $7800. This isn’t a bad spot to jump on board the Gurley train and hope for a low ownership gem. The Giants have been nothing special against the run and they just got torched by the similar but less talented Terrance West last week.

Elite Plays: Odell Beckham, Jr.

Secondary Plays: Kenny Britt, Todd Gurley, Tavon Austin


1:00 Sunday Games

Minnesota -2.5 at Philadelphia 40

I’m going to make this one brief. We have two of the top defensive teams in the league facing off in this one. That doesn’t make for much fantasy goodness. The Vikings are road favorites and the game total is the lowest of the week.

The only position player I’m considering in this one is Jerick Mckinnon and that’s only because he’s cheap on DraftKings. It won’t take many check-down throws for him to make value. That, plus the Eagles stifling run defense, will probably limit the effectiveness of a vulture like Matt Asiata.

Elite Plays: Vikings D


at Kansas City -7 New Orleans 50.5

Fire up the Chiefs offense, people…The Saints are marching in! I actually wish the Chiefs offense were easier to decipher than they have been because this is a great spot for them. The Saints come to town as seven-point dogs in a game with a very high 50.5-point total. The Saint have been turrible defensively this season while the Chiefs have been pretty good.

We all know about the massive home/away splits of Drew Brees, but Brandin Cooks brings a similarly high split. Both players have traditionally been much better at home which is why the Chiefs are such heavy favorites. This season Brees is averaging over 30 points per game at home and under 15 on the road. I think those numbers will level out a bit but not completely. It’s going to be difficult to trust any of the Saints pass catchers here as well.

The Chiefs are similarly difficult to decipher on a weekly basis. Theoretically, this is a great spot for the entire offense. Alex Smith, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin are all in plus matchups. The problem for me is that none of them have shown anything to start the season; this level of inconsistency renders this group GPP only for me. Further complicating things, last week featured the return of Jamal Charles. Of course Spencer Ware went on to get 25 carries en route to a 27-point day on DraftKings, but this looks like a timeshare situation to me. Fortunately, there should be enough goodness to go around. The Saints are particularly vulnerable to the run and Andy Reid has shown that if he can run it, he will do so over and over.

Elite Plays: Spencer Ware

Secondary Plays: Jamal Charles


at Detroit -1 Washington 48.5

The Redskins travel to Detroit as one-point dogs in a game that Vegas expects will be close and high scoring. The Lions have made enemy QBs, even bad ones, look like world beaters to start the season. Last week, Case Keenum was the nuts QB facing this disaster of a Lions secondary. This bodes well for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins WR corps. This is an ideal spot for Kirk Cousins and the gang.

The issue here will be trying to figure out which pass catcher to target. DeSean Jackson is the big play guy but he’s been wildly overpriced all season as compared to his actual production. Last week, D-Jax tallied four receptions on nine targets for a paltry 9.5 DK points. In five games this season, Jackson has hit 20 DK points twice. Outside of that, he’s had a very low floor with two games under five total points. This may be the game where D-Jax actually pays off on his lofty price tag. Jordan Reed remains sidelined with a concussion. If he doesn’t start, those 10 targets per game will need to go somewhere. Vernon Davis filled in admirably last week, grabbing a TD on four targets but there are more than four targets to go around. Pierre Garcon has been utilized mainly as a possession receiver the past few weeks; his targets have been on the rise, which is encouraging, and he makes for an excellent salary saving punt this week on the PPR sites like DraftKings. Garcon had been averaging six targets per game prior to Reed going down and last week that was bumped up to 11. On paper, at least last week, it looked like Garcon was the primary beneficiary. At $3700 on DK he makes for a high-floor salary saver in a plus matchup.

The Lions offense is up in the air at the moment due to the uncertainty at the RB position. Over the past few weeks, Marvin Jones Jr. has been seeing fewer and fewer targets while Anquan Boldin and Golden Tate have become more involved in the offense. Boldin has functioned as the possession WR/TE replacement since Ebron went out and Tate finally broke out last week to the tune of 10 receptions, 165 yards and a TD. Based on his cheaper salary and massive target share last week, Tate is the best play of the group.

Elite Plays: Kirk Cousins, Golden Tate

***The line on this game is very attractive and it makes sense to stack up different player combinations.

Secondary Plays: Pierre Garcon, MJJ, Stafford, Theo Riddick (if healthy), DeSean Jackson. Vernon Davis, Jamison Crowder


at Cincinnati -10 Cleveland 46

One of the most basic Vegas Lines rules of thumb is to target defenses and RBs in games where the home team is favored by 10 or more points. Well, here we go. The Browns will take on the Bengals this week as massive underdogs. To make matters worse, it looks like the Browns best and only weapon on offense, Terrelle Pryor, will miss this game with a leg injury. Yikes!

Looking at this game and the line for the Bengals, the initial standouts are the Bengals defense, Mike Nugent and Jeremy Hill. Defense, kicker and two-down RBs all benefit from the same game script. The question for me in this game is what to do with AJ Green. On paper, this looks like a cake matchup at home, but the issue for me is that I doubt the Bengals will need to do all that much in the passing game to get the win. If I’m entering a lineup in a big tournament, I need every player on my team to put up above-average fantasy numbers. The most likely way to get those types of numbers is when a game is close and high scoring. Last week in a nail-biter, Odell Beckham, Jr. went bananas. The matchup wasn’t great on paper but the script called for aggressive passing from start to finish. If the Bengals are demolishing the Browns defensively I doubt they will need Green late in the game. That doesn’t mean that Green won’t have a nice game here because he could certainly reach 20+ points in the 1st half alone. I just think it limits the ceiling a bit compared to some other players and situations.

Elite Plays: Bengals D, Jeremy Hill


Buffalo -3 at Miami 45

The Bills travel south to take on the resurgent Dolphins as three-point favorites in a game with a middling score. Last week the Dolphins shook things up on their offensive line and cut two of their starting guards, sending a message to the team that poor play will not be acceptable.

They responded with a massive day running the football. The game was supposed to mark the return of Arian Foster, instead, we saw a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi in the lead back role and he shined with 25 carries, 200+ yards and 2 TDs. The Bills bring a defense that has actually been solid across the board this season but they aren’t the type of defense that shuts down RBs. They rank 13th in points allowed to enemy runners, but it’s going to be hard to ignore Ajayi this week considering his super-cheap salary levels. I would imagine that the Dolphins coaching staff was watching the game last week and they see that Ajayi is the better option at this point then Foster. The Bills have been a top defense as far as limiting opposing QBs rendering Tannehill and his pass catchers as GPP only plays.

This game actually features two of the hottest RBs in the league right now.

We already discussed Ajayi but the other one is LeSean McCoy. Last week he tore up the 49ers at home with 140 yards on 19 carries for three TDs. Shady has been remarkably consistent to start the season but the rest of the Bills offense is too unpredictable on a week-to-week basis.

Elite Plays: LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi


at Jacksonville -1 Oakland 49

Chalk Alert! The Raiders travel cross country with their bottom of the league secondary to take on a Jags team that loves to sling the rock. Vegas is looking for a shootout and you know I’m feeling a tingle in my legs. The things that excite me most about this game are that both teams can score, and subsequently, neither plays much defense. I’ll be looking to stack this one up in as many iterations as I can come up with.

Oakland has been the team to pick on this season when it comes to selecting fantasy players; they make everyone look good and this week we get them on the road. Blake Bortles to Allen Robinson will be a core stack this week in both cash and GPP lineups. Julius Thomas and Allen Hurns haven’t done much this season and now, with Marquise Lee in the mix, there may not be enough volume to support all three guys. That said, I would be surprised if one of them didn’t have a nice game next week. I’m just not sure which one it will be, but gun to my head, I’d favor Julius Thomas simply because he’s a TD catcher and the Raiders have been torched by TEs to start the season.

The Jags running game is a stinkfest and best avoided. Yeldon has been the more productive of the two runners but that’s not saying much.

One thing I like about the Raiders offense is that they only have the two primary playmakers. Week in and week out it’s the Cooper and Crabtree show. They don’t involve their TEs much and the running game has been a bit of a mess. That has led to fantastic weekly production from Derek Carr. The past few weeks, Amari Cooper has been on fire. He has clearly taken over the lead WR role for the Raiders and I expect more goodness out of him this week. This is definitely a stack em’ up situation.

Elite Plays: Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Mike Crabtree

Secondary Plays: Allan Hurns, Julius Thomas


at Tennessee -2.5 Indianapolis 48.5

The Colts travel to Tennessee as slight road dogs in a game with one of the higher totals on the slate. The Titans have been using their control the clock, heavy run game offense to limit opposing fantasy scores at every position to start the season. The Colts, on the other hand, have been extremely vulnerable to RBs above all.

Mariota has been on fire this past couple of weeks, exceeding 30 fantasy points in both games. Last week we finally saw a breakout game from slot WR Kendall Wright, with eight receptions on nine targets for 133 yards. Wright is finally healed up from an early season hamstring injury and he appears ready to step into the #1 WR role for the Titans. Wright’s big game came at the expense of Delanie Walker and Demarco Murray. Defensively, the Colts only have one player to fear, Vontae Davis. Davis shut down DeAndre Hopkins last week and he appears to be back to his old self. I’m assuming Davis will shadow Wright this week which should open things up for Walker. DeMarco is an elite play at home.

The Colts take on a Titans team that has done a pretty good job of shutting down enemy offenses for fantasy purposes to start the season. Vegas is looking for big numbers from the Colts offense so we need to get some exposure. Luck to Hilton is always in play. Hilton has traditionally done better at home than on the road, but Luck has very few alternatives in the passing game right now. Hilton should see all the targets he can handle in this one. Another name to keep an eye on is Jack Doyle; he’s priced at minimum salary on the DFS sites. Doyle has been running in a TEBC with Dwayne Allen to start the season. Allen is out this week which should result in some extra targets for Doyle. At $2500 on DraftKings we don’t need much from him for the move to pay off. The Colts lack any tall WR’s right now so I presume that Doyle may get some red zone opportunities as well.

Elite Plays: Mariota, Luck, Walker, Murray, Hilton, Doyle


at NY Jets -1 Baltimore 41.5

The Geno Smith era reboots in New York as the Jets take on the Ravens- a game they are slight favorites in with one of the lowest totals of the week. I expect both defenses to get back their usual run-stuffing selves, so it’d be best to go through the air if you have to.

The most interesting part of this game is the return of Geno Smith and the value he presents, particularly on FanDuel where he is min-priced for a QB. FanDuel generally prices the QB position as a higher percentage of the cap than what DraftKings does. Anytime you can get a QB at minimum salary on FanDuel, it’s a strong consideration. Geno sucks but he is a veteran and he knows the offense. I could easily see him surpassing the 3x value we need on FanDuel for GPP viability. The Jets have been rotating in a number of players at the WR positions, but Brandon Marshall is the clear lead dog with Quincy Enunwa as the #2.

I expect the Ravens will have a hard time running the ball on the Jets. Ravens Defense is a GPP consideration here because, well, Geno isn’t good. They won’t be a core play for me, however. I prefer defenses in their home stadiums.

Elite Plays: Geno Smith (FanDuel Only)


4:00 Sunday Games

at Atlanta -6.5 San Diego 53.5

Chalk Alert! Yes, there are two chalk alerts this week. This game actually carries the highest total of the week at 53.5 points. The Falcons are home favorites taking on a Chargers team that is without their top CB Jason Verrett. Both teams are terrible defensively and all systems should be a go here.

Let’s start with a look at the Falcons offense. Matt Ryan has been incredible to start the season, but his one hiccup was an understandable 15-point performance at Denver. His pass catchers have consisted of Julio Jones and a bunch of ne’er-do-wells. Last week, Mohamed Sanu got some extra targets due to Richard Sherman shadowing Jones and an inability to run on the Seattle defense. They shouldn’t have any of those issues at home this week so fire up Ryan to Julio as a core stack. This season the Falcons have proven that an RBBC can actually produce outstanding fantasy results. The combination of Freeman and Coleman at RB has been nothing short of mind-boggling; there were two games this season where each guy produced over 20 fantasy points. That said, there is always risk rostering an RBBC player even in an excellent matchup. Since both players are seeing equal usage, and Freeman is more expensive, I tend to default to Coleman.

The Chargers are in a great spot here as well, as their opponents rank at the bottom of pretty much every defensive category. The Bolts also score a ton, so this game has plenty of shootout potential. Melvin Gordon is a week in week out lock for a huge workload and the Chargers simply don’t have anyone else at the position. TE Hunter Henry has also been a revelation the past couple of weeks. Gates is still getting reps but he is an old fart with hammy problems; when he runs right now he reminds me of former Mets catcher Mackey Sasser who was oft described as “the molasses footed.” The WR situation for the Chargers is more complex; Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams seem to share WR1 responsibilities but, for some reason, DraftKings keeps jacking up the salary on T-Benj while holding steady with T-Willz.  I’ll take my chances with Williams in a plus matchup, but Benjamin is worth some exposure in game stacks as well.

Elite Plays: Matty Ice, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman, Melvin Gordon, Phillip Rivers, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry

Secondary Plays: Travis Benjamin


Tampa Bay -2 at San Francisco 47.5

The Bucs travel to Santa Clara to take on a reeling 49ers team. Last week Colin Krapernick took over at QB and promptly showed us why he was benched for Gabbert. His one solid play in the passing game was a bomb to Torrey Smith (called it!). He did, however, make value by scrambling to the tune of 70 yards. Vegas sees this one as close and fairly high-scoring. Defensively, both teams have been awful this season.

The Bucs are licking their chops for this game and so am I. The Bucs lost Vincent Jackson this week leaving them thin at WR. Evans already gets all the targets he can handle in this offense. Former target monster, Adam Humphries is squarely back in the min-salary WR punt conversation in this game.  The sneakiest play of all this week may be the always-injured Cecil Shorts. Yup, I didn’t know he was on the Bucs either. I just looked that shit up. Anyway, no one will be on Shorts and he’s apparently healthy so use him at your own risk. My favorite play in this game is Jaquizz Rodgers. Doug Martin is still at least a week away from his return and that means Quizz should get the complete run of the Tampa backfield. ALL IN.

The 49ers are bringing very little offensive firepower to this game because it looks like Carlos Hyde will sit this one out. In his place it seems like the 49ers will use a three-headed monster of Mike Davis, Shaun Draughn, and perhaps practice squad player DuJuan Harris. Gun to the head, I think Davis has the best prospects simply because he was used ahead of Draughn last week. The line on this game is begging us to play the 49ers offense. I suppose a Krap to Smith stack is usable again this week but I’m not going to get too excited about it.

Elite Plays: Mike Evans, Jaquizz Rodgers


New England -7.5 at Pittsburgh 45.5

The news couldn’t get any worse for the Steelers. Just when they had Le’Veon Bell back and were clicking on all cylinders, they lose Big Ben for 4-5 weeks. To make matters worse, they have to face the red-hot Patriots offense this week. The Patriots are heavy road favorites here for good reason.

I fully expect The Hoodie to bring a game plan focused on stopping Bell. Landry was really bad last season when he filled in for Ben and the entire Pittsburgh offense suffered. Bell still carries some appeal as does Antonio Brown, but not at their current salary levels.

The Patriots are basically unstoppable on offense right now. Brady is in GOAT form and he has a full complement of weapons around him. I believe this may be the most talented all-around Patriots team of the Brady-Belichick era. Brady is one of the safest QB plays week in and week out. If you are the nervous type that likes to pay up at QB for consistency, use Brady this week and every one moving forward. Rob Gronkowski got back to his beastly ways last week. Another player with a breakout was James White; as expected, he has thrived as the passing down back since Brady’s return. I expect him to be a volatile RB2 play until Dion Lewis returns. The one Patriot that has been a disappointment this season has been Julian Edelman. Maybe this is his week? Edelman used to be considered the ideal cash play, a lock for double-digit targets and a favorite of Brady’s. That hasn’t been the case thus far, as over the past two weeks Edelman has averaged 4.5 receptions and 32 yards- not great considering the high price tag. I expect his good buddy Brady to feed him at some point but Edelman should no longer be considered a textbook cash safe play on a weekly basis. Brady simply has too many weapons right now at his disposal.

Elite Plays: Brady, Gronkowski, Patriots D


Sunday Night Football

at Arizona -2 Seattle 43.5

This week’s hammer games aren’t looking that great. Sunday Night brings us a matchup of two of the better defensive teams in the league, where the Seahawks travel to Arizona as slight underdogs in a game expected to be close and low scoring.

I don’t have a ton to add here. These two teams are numbers three and four on the defense chart above. I think both teams will have trouble running the football and they both bring a top-notch CB1 to the table. If you could promise me that Richard Sherman was going to be covering Larry Fitzgerald all game, I’d be interested in going back to “Sherriff” John Brown. I still may use him in a couple of lineups just in case.


Monday Night Football

 

at Denver -7.5 Houston 41.5

The Monday Night game has the Texans heading out to Denver in what is Brock Osweiler’s homecoming. The Texans are heavy underdogs in a game Vegas expects will be very low scoring.

This is a bad spot for the Texans. Normally we don’t start teams on the road facing Denver, but to make matters worse, I’ve heard some grumblings out of Denver that their players that are pissed about the way Brock left the team. To make matters even worse than that, Brock hasn’t played all that well to start the season and his best weapon, Will Fuller, is dealing with a hammy issue. I’m not touching any Texans this week.

For the Broncos this should be a cakewalk. Defensively, the Texans have done a nice job of limiting opposing QBs and pass catchers. That’s OK, because I expect Denver to play conservative. When the Broncos win, the game script generally calls for great defense and a run heavy attack. C.J. Anderson has not looked great outside of the first week of the season. It’s obvious that the Broncos are trying to work this RB situation in to a timeshare as Booker gets up to speed. I don’t see any reason to go there.

Elite Plays: Denver D


Conclusion

That’s it for the Week 7 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army premium members, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column. That should be live on Thursday morning. If you are reading this via the DFS Army Android app please be kind and leave a review.  Click here to grab the app from the google play store or to leave a nice review if you have it already!

Good luck this week!


DFS Army Week 7 Content

Geek’s Week 7 Vegas Lines DFS Strategy and Game Breakdown

Geek’s Week 7 FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Football Player Picks and Notes

DFS Army Week 7 Stats and Projections Spreadsheet

DFS Army Week 7 Kickers Corner

DFS Army Early Week Primer – Defenses

Domination Station Video Series for DFS Army VIPS