Welcome back to Week 5 of the 2016 daily fantasy football season. Last week was very profitable for me and, based on some of the tweets and emails coming in, many of our readers and VIP members as well. I wound up taking 1st place in a King of the Beach qualifier on DraftKings- that’s the good news. The bad news is that I tied with 11 other players. That means we have a tiebreaker contest this weekend to determine who gets the trip and the entry into the live million-dollar final. I’ll break down that lineup in a minute.
The other piece of news is that we launched our new multi-entry optimization tool – The Domination Station – in beta mode last week. The launch was successful and our members have given a ton of great feedback which we are currently working to implement. The most impressive part was how successful the optimized lineups were. That’s more a function of our custom projections but here was the primary optimized lineup for FanDuel:
Kirk Cousins 18.32
Mark Ingram 19.5
Jordan Howard 14.7
Travis Benjamin 4.8
Antonio Brown 20.4
Julio Jones 42
Travis Kelce 10.8
New England Patriots 3
Dustin Hopkins 8
Only the Pats D and Travis Benjamin didn’t make value, this lineup was good for 136.75 points. I used it in my cash games and cleaned house. This lineup also made the cash line in the big GPPs. All and all it was a great start for our optimization tool and an even better representation of the projections we have been putting out on a weekly basis as part of our weekly NFL Spreadsheet.
King of the Beach
I’m sure I’ve mentioned this before, but for the past two seasons, I’ve been chasing qualifiers. These Q contests are tough because you literally need to take 1st place or you are screwed. A few weeks ago I mentioned here in the column, that I have been giving a serious look to the Primetime only contests. This week decided to throw a few entries in the King of The Beach Primetime qualifier. Here is the lineup I used to take a share of 1st place:
I wanted to take a moment to break this lineup down for everyone. I tend to keep things chalky in a two-game slate and focus on one or two spots for differentiation. This contest was limited to five entries so I knew I needed to make them all count. I’ll start with what I considered the most obvious plays – Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, Kyle Rudolph and Vikings Defense. This was a must play foursome for this slate in my mind and I locked them in on every entry. Last week in the column here and on my DFS Army VIP podcast I emphasized that the Vikings, alongside the Broncos, Cardinals and Patriots, are all shutdown defenses at home. My assumption going in was that the Vikings would shut down the Giants. I focused on avoiding using any Giants players in my lineups.
The first big decision game in the RB2 spot, where Spencer Ware was the chalky play. I had an idea of using both Kelce and Rudolph in a single lineup for differentiation purposes and in order to afford him I needed to save some salary. Out went Ware in favor of McKinnon who I also liked quite a bit based on his salary. That move allowed me to get both Maclin and Kelce in this lineup. I was expecting a closer/higher-scoring game between the Chiefs and Steelers. The next big call was using Sammie Coates. Wheaton had been having the dropsies and there were blurbs out of Steelers HQ about getting Coates more involved in the game plan.
It was a really fun sweating this thing play out. Next week DraftKings is running the tiebreaker in Primetime. I, and the other 11 players that tied for 1st will battle it out for one of the 180 spots in the King of the Beach contest. Suffice it to say, I’ll be putting a little extra effort into my research for the primetime slate!
DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP
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Week 5 Vegas Lines Breakdown
Thursday Night
Arizona -4 at San Francisco 43
The week starts off with the 1-3 Cardinals heading to San Francisco as four-point favorites in a game with a very low 43-point total.
The 49ers defense has been awful since Week 1 and they just lost Navarro Bowman for the season. Hello, David Johnson! The Cardinals have yet to find their groove this season and as of this writing, it’s not clear if Carson Palmer will be able to play in this game. With or without Palmer, the Arizona wideouts are all worth a look this week in GPP lineups. There are too many of them getting targets for me to feel comfortable using one in a cash or hybrid lineup. It’s David Johnson or bust!
There isn’t much to say about the 49ers offense right now. Their passing game is absolutely dreadful, but the entire offense runs through Carlos Hyde. The Cardinals should easily be able to key in on that and take Hyde out of this game. Pass on that mess.
Elite Plays: David Johnson, Cardinals Defense
Sunday Slate
at Minnesota -6 Houston 39.5
The Texans travel to Minnesota to face what I think is the top defense in the league right now. The last time the Texans were on the road facing a tough defense they got blanked by the Patriots. The Vikings are better than that.
The Vikings have been winning on a combination of defense and an efficient low-volume offense centered around the run. The two primary passing game weapons for the Vikings are Kyle Rudolph and Stefon Diggs. Diggs has disappointed for two weeks in a row. Unfortunately, because his last game was on a Monday the DFS sites ($6300 on DraftKings) have yet to bring down his salary to a level reflecting recent production. This phenomenon has worked to the benefit of Rudolph, who is still priced dirt cheap. Watching last week’s game, I noted that Matt Asiata isn’t very good at all. They bring him in exclusively on short yardage situations, so he may vulture a TD or two, John Kuhn style, but he isn’t a key component of the Minnesota rushing attack. Jerrick McKinnon ($4000 on DraftKings) has looked better and better each week. He is the RB to own here as he gets work in both the pass and rushing game.
As far as the Texans go, I’m sticking with the premise that using players on the road facing the Vikings defense is a -EV proposition.
Elite Plays: Kyle Rudolph, Jerrick McKinnon
at Miami -3.5 Tennessee 43.5
The Titans head South to Miami as slight underdogs in a game with a fairly low total. There is a possibility this game could actually be moved to Nashville as there is a hurricane headed toward Miami that may affect this game. Normally this type of a spread on a game is a warning to keep away, but both of these teams use such a narrow pool of players that there could actually be some goodness.
Let’s start with the Dolphins, who face a Titans defense that has actually been solid to start the season. They are better at stopping the run than the pass, but their biggest weakness has been their CB2 Parrish Cox, who just got smoked by Will Fuller last week. The Dolphins don’t have much of a running game right now. Instead, they move their offense by passing to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Both guys are playable this week assuming the weather conditions aren’t an issue.
On the other hand, the Titans have been moving the ball well on the ground. DeMarco Murray has been beastly for the Titans and extremely consistent; he draws a Miami defense that has had trouble stopping the run. In what Vegas sees as a close game there is little chance that the Titans will abandon the run during this contest- that makes Murray as cash safe as it gets. Delanie Walker came back from injury last week and led the team in targets; he is a safe weekly TE option with a plus matchup. The final piece of the Titans offense is Tajae Sharpe, who has been regressing as far as his efficiency goes but he is still seeing seven targets per game over the past three weeks. Sharpe defines boom or bust GPP-only play but this is still a good spot for him.
Elite Plays: Demarco Murray, Delanie Walker, Jarvis Landry, Davonta Parker
New England -10.5 at Cleveland 47
The return of Tom Brady is a scary proposition for the rest of the league, yet the schedule makers were kind to Brady in giving him a practice game against the Jr. College level defense of the Browns. The Patriots are favored by a rare 10.5 points on the road for this one, and it’s one of those situations where I’m going to throw my “Don’t use fantasy defenses on the road” rule of thumb out the window.
The main question in this game is how badly will the Pats beat up on the Browns. I could see them leading 21-0 before the end of the 1st half, even the first quarter. Everyone is going to want a piece of Brady and his pass catchers in this game for good reason. Edelman is always a solid cash play and a very consistent source of PPR points. Gronkowski is coming off an injury but I expect him to be a full-go in this game. I’ll try to get some Edelman exposure in my lineups this week but my primary play will be stacking up Blount with the Patriots defense. I don’t foresee a close game and expect Blount to do damage in the second half of this potential blowout.
I’m going full fade on the Browns offense. Crowell has looked good the past few weeks but I expect Cleveland to go down big early and then be in catch-up mode rendering Crowell somewhat unusable. Every measurable statistic I’ve looked at warns against using players on teams that are 10+ point underdogs.
Elite Plays: Edelman, Blount, Patriots Defense, Tom Brady
at Pittsburgh -7 NY Jets 48.5
The Jets limp into Pittsburgh as seven-point underdogs in a game with one of the highest totals on this week’s slate of games. The Steelers have been an average defensive unit across the board this season while the Jets have been stopping the run but getting gashed through the air.
Anytime the Steelers play at home their Killer Bee stud triumvirate of Ben, Brown, and Bell all make for elite plays. The Jets have been stopping the run defensively this season but Bell is still an elite play due to the combination of his passing game work and his general studliness. Last week I used Sammy Coates in a lineup that tied for first in the King of the Beach qualifier. Coates saw seven targets in a blowout game and he is firmly in play as an every-week GPP flier with prime Martavis Bryant level upside.
The Jets have looked awful on offense the past two weeks. It’s actually been all season outside of that Thursday Night game against the Bills. Fitzpatrick has been keying in on opposing CBs and nailing them in the numbers with his passes of late. This is one of those spots where that can potentially turn around. Vegas slapped a high line on this game for a reason; I’m looking for the Jets to be in catch-up mode for most of this contest and garbage time points are fine with me. The Jets two primary pass catchers have been Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa and there’s no threat at TE. It’s tough to judge the running game over the past couple of weeks but Forte has definitely come back down to earth. That could be a result of game-flow scenarios in blowout games and the script here calls for the same. Bilal Powell is the more attractive DFS option in the Jets backfield this week as he gets in the game when they go into the hurry-up.
Elite Plays: Ben, Brown, Bell, Marshall, Enunwa
Secondary: Sammy Coates, Bilal Powell
at Baltimore -3.5 Washington 45
The Redskins travel north up I-95 as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a middling total. The Ravens have quietly been one of the best defenses at home this season limiting opposing WRs to just 191 yards per game and allowing the eighth-fewest yards to opposing RBs. Washington on the other hand, has been very generous against enemy RBs allowing an average of over 100 yards per game.
The Redskins aren’t in a great spot here as road dogs facing a tough defense in a game with a middling total. You may be wondering why I thought the Titans offense was interesting in a similar situation- the answer is because of how each team’s offense operated. The Titans run their offense through two players- Murray and Walker. The Redskins spread the ball around much more. All three of their WRs have seen an equal target share to start the season. Reed also commands targets in this offense. I’m fading the Redskins completely here.
The Ravens are in a good spot at home. Washington’s defense is below average across the board, so the key question is who from the Ravens will benefit? Let’s start with the running game. Last week Terrance West had 21 carries for 115 yards and Buck Allen got minimal work as the complimentary passing down back. Assuming the Ravens keep this game close or play with a lead, West should get another full workload, while promising rookie, Kenneth Dixon, is expected to make his debut this week but I expect him to take over the Buck Allen role. In the passing game, Steve Smith Sr. remains the preferred WR to use in this offense. Mike Wallace remains a low-efficiency big play dependent GPP flier. Dennis Pitta at TE is more of a low ceiling punt with a decent target floor of around five or six per game.
Elite Plays: Steve Smith Sr
Secondary: Terrance West, Baltimore Defense
Philadelphia -3 at Detroit 46
The Eagles head out to Michigan to take on the Lions as three-point favorites in a game with a total on the high side for this slate. The Lions are ranked dead last against the pass to start the season, while the Eagles have been one of the best defenses in the league against both the pass and the run.
This is a tricky spot for the Lions offense, as they are facing an Eagles defense that has shut down pretty much anything that has come their way. Normally, one of my favorite plays is the slight home dog in a high-total game. Marvin Jones Jr. has been the sole focus of the Lions offense to start the season, so I’ll have some exposure to him this week.
The Eagles get a Lions defense that hasn’t stopped anyone this season, so this is a great spot for Jordan Matthews. The Eagles running game is a tougher call. It’s an RBBC situation involving Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner; that’s way too many names for my liking. The only Eagles RB I’d consider is Sproles as a high-ceiling punt play.
Elite Plays: Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz
at Indianapolis -4.5 Chicago 47.5
The Bears travel to Indianapolis as 4.5-point dogs in a game with a high total. This game could go under the radar but it has a ton of fantasy appeal. The Colts have been awful defensively and they suck equally to opposing run and pass games. The Bears have been a little better on defense and they did a great job stopping the Lions last week; they have generally been an average defense (ranked 17th overall) to start the season.
This game has some sleeper appeal as a potential shootout game. For the Colts offense, it has been the T.Y. Hilton show to start the season. Hilton has seen double-digit targets in every game and he’s also a home/away splits player generally doing much better in home games. I’m not comfortable with the other Colts pieces in this one; Frank Gore’s ceiling is limited and his DFS salary has gone up to the point where he is no longer a value play. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t been a focal point in this offense at all since taking over the WR2 spot for the injured Donte Moncrief. The TE’s are vulturing from one another, rendering both as unusable for DFS purposes.
The Bears offense is probably in the better spot here. As I mentioned earlier, the Colts defense is at the bottom of the league in every category. The one player of note is Vontae Davis, as he’s now had a few games to knock the rust off following his injury. There was a time when Davis was good enough to force opposing QBs to target the WR2 and I expect Davis to cover Alshon this week; this should open things up a bit for Eddie Royal, who is coming off a big game. Last week when Kevin White got injured, Royal stepped up to the tune of seven receptions, 111 yards, and a TD. At TE, Zach Miller is coming off a couple of solid performances and Hoyer loves to look for him in the red zone, making for a TD-dependent TE punt play. The most exciting player on the Bears offense this week is Jordan Howard; he got a workhorse level touches last week and came through with 23 carries for 111 yards and three receptions on four targets. The Colts can’t stop the run and Howard brings a safe floor and high ceiling in what should be a close game.
Elite Plays: Jordan Howard, TY Hilton
Secondary: Hoyer, Eddie Royal, Alshon Jeffrey, Zach Miller
4:05 ET at Denver -6 Atlanta 47.5
The red hot Falcons travel to Denver as six-point dogs in a game with a high total for the week. Denver is one of those places were hot teams go to cool off, it’s got to be those Rocky Mountain breezes. Denver is on my list of defenses that shut opposing teams down at home, so I’m fully fading the Falcons offense in this spot.
I think the ownership numbers for Atlanta’s offense may be a bit higher than they should be since they are coming off that offensive explosion against the Panthers. People may even think that since they smoked a quality Panthers defense, they should also do well against Denver; I’m not falling for that trap. The play here is to target Denver’s offense facing an Atlanta defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far this season. The lines point to C.J. Anderson as the best play on Denver; a home favorite in a game with a high total should equal fantasy gold. In a GPP, it could make sense to roll with a low ownership contrarian Denver D / CJ Anderson stack. In the passing game, Emmanuel Sanders has been the top target for Trevor Siemian to start the season. It’s not clear if Siemian will play this week, however. If he doesn’t we get an unknown quantity in Paxton Lynch at QB. Lynch looked OK in relief of Siemian last week but I’m not ready to trust him even if it is in a great spot.
Elite Plays: C.J. Anderson
at Los Angeles -2.5 Buffalo 40
The Bills travel West to take on the Rams in a game with one of the lowest totals of the week as slight underdogs. Vegas is looking for a defensive struggle with neither team doing much scoring. Both teams have been above average defensively to start the season.
The Rams don’t have much of an offense, but their two “stars,” Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin, could be interesting. Gurley has seen a ton of touches to start the season, but with the lack of a passing game opposing teams have been able to key in on stopping him. It was encouraging to see Gurley go 5-for-5 in targets last week, so any passing game usage helps with Gurley’s floor. Austin is a boom-or-bust player with a floor close to zero.
This is a tough matchup for the Bills, but especially LeSean McCoy. Road dogs facing a quality run defense are not the ideal DFS spot outside of GPP contrarian plays. One player I like a lot is Robert Woods; the Bills will need to pass to move the ball on this stout Rams Defense and with Watkins out of the way, Woods saw 10 targets last week. The Bills really don’t have anyone else to throw to so the floor is solid. Woods is priced close to min salary on most of the sites.
Elite Plays: Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, Rams Defense
at Oakland -3.5 San Diego 50.5
Chalk Alert! In the highest total game of the slate, the Chargers head to Oakland as slight road dogs. The Raiders defense has been torched on a weekly basis en route to being ranked 29th overall, being equally bad versus the run and the pass. The Chargers have been a little better defensively, but far from good, with a top-20 overall ranking. They have been particularly bad at stopping the run.
It’s interesting that this is the chalk game of the week because there are some major potential landmines in this one and it just feels like a trap. Let’s start with the Chargers offense. Melvin Gordon has been great in the three games he has started so far but when I dive a bit deeper, maybe not. Last week he only managed a paltry 36 yards on 19 carries, and that was at home against a Saints Defense that had just been torched for 200+ yards by the Atlanta RBs! Gordon has made up for his lack of quality running yards by scoring plenty of TDs on a weekly basis. His passing game usage keeps his floor high but his salary has exploded to the point where it’s almost identical to studs like LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. I’m comfortable fading him completely this week. The other problem with the Chargers offense is the lack of a clear #1 WR. The targets are spread out evenly between three guys. I have no idea which of Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman or Tyrell Williams will be featured on a weekly basis. Last week Benjamin’s snap count dropped to 53%. WTF! I don’t trust any of these WRs at this point in a cash lineup, so its’ GPP-only for me. At TE, Hunter Henry has been seeing an average of 6 targets per game and he seems like a safe floor punt at TE this week with TD upside.
The Raiders get to face a fairly soft Chargers defense this week. The Chargers have been particularly vulnerable to opposing RB’s. The problem is it’s not clear who the lead back actually is for the Raiders at this point. Last week Lats Murray got just eight carries and two targets, while Deandre Washington got five carries and three targets and even Jalen Richard got a couple of carries and some targets; this situation is ugly. I’d want more clarity before committing to any of them. The Raiders caught a break because the Chargers All-Pro CB Jason Verrett will be out this week- give a bump to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper on that news. The problem for me is the salaries for these two players; after last week’s 3 TD performance, DraftKings has jacked up Crabtree’s salary to $6900. You can grab names like Kelvin Benjamin, Brandon Marshall, TY Hilton and Jarvis Landry at that salary level.
**Note – It is being reported that Latavius Murray will miss this week’s game. That’s a MAJOR bump for DeAndre Washington who will take over as the starter in a plus matchup.
Elite Plays: Phillip Rivers, David Carr, Hunter Henry, DeAndre Washington
Cincinnati -1 at Dallas 45.5
The Bengals head to Dallas as one-point favorites to take on the Cowboys in a game with a middle of the road total. Both of these teams play a methodical, ball-control style on offense alongside solid defense which tends to limit enemy opportunities. I’d be surprised if the game went over the ensued 45.5-point total.
The Bengals face a Dallas defense that has been a top unit against the run and more vulnerable to the pass. This bodes well for A.J. Green who should go under the radar with so many other stud WRs in great spots at home this week. Dallas has been torched by TEs to start the season, but unfortunately, Tyler EifHurt is dealing with a back issue and doubtful to play in this one.
The Bengals defense is solid across the board but their strength has been against the pass; I’m expecting a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott in this one. Dallas WR corps has some punt appeal on a weekly basis but this is a tough spot. I’m looking for value elsewhere this week.
Elite Plays: AJ Green
Sunday Night
at Green Bay -7.5 NY Giants 48
The Giants travel to Green Bay as 7.5-point dogs in a game with one of the higher totals of the slate. The Giants defense has been pretty good to start the season, but they have been tougher versus the run and average against the pass. The Packers have been top notch against the run and one of the worst teams in the league at defending the pass.
The Packers defensive backfield has been banged up all season. Sam Shields is out once again which is good news for Odell Beckham Jr. and company. Eli Manning is actually in a decent spot as well. The Packers have only allowed 128 total rushing yards this season, so that should funnel scoring opportunities to the pass catchers. Eli Manning will act as the Godfather and get a piece of all the scoring action. Outside of OBJ, the Giants have been spreading targets equally between Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepherd. Shepherd has shown the higher ceiling of the two so far this season but that could change at any time.
The Packers are coming off a huge offensive game for Aaron Rodgers, as he went 15-for-24 and put up four TDs against the paper-soft Lions secondary. Jordy Nelson was the beneficiary on two of those TDs and he remains Rodgers favorite red zone target. I loves me some Jordy this week! Randall Cobb has done nothing this season and he’s basically dead to me. The DFS sites continue to slap a stud level salary on a player that has basically been a scrub for more than one full season. Davante Adams has some punt appeal in this game but it’s more of a desperation play than anything else. Adams has topped out at seven targets and three receptions to start the season. TE Richard Rogers could also get a few extra looks with Jared Cook still out for this one.
Elite Plays: Jordy Nelson, Odell Beckham Jr, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning
Monday Night
at Carolina -6 Tampa Bay Off
I’m approaching this write-up as if Cam Newton will play in this one. The Panthers are favored by six in a “get right” game against the Bucs. Even after getting torched by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones last week, the Panthers are ranked above average at stopping the pass and top-10 against the run this season. Tampa has been decent against the run and absolutely terrible at stopping the pass.
This is an ideal spot for Cam and the gang. They are reeling after the whooping they took last week and I’d assume Cam is embarrassed after the way he got hurt slowing up to showboat his way into the end zone. I’m expecting to see a much more focused Cam, assuming he plays. The Cam to Kelvin Benjamin stack is in play. Tampa grades out well against the TE position according to our DVP sheet at #6 overall. Even with knowing that, I still want some Greg Olsen exposure this weekend. The spot at home is still solid. At RB the Panthers use a committee approach with Fozzy Whittaker as the passing down specialist and Cameron Artis-Payne as the up the gut two-down back; neither guy comes with a ton of upside. Assuming the game flow is a blowout by Carolina, I could see a scenario where Artis-Payne outscores Fozzy this week.
I’m not convinced, by how badly the Carolina defense played last week, that they aren’t a quality defense worth fearing in DFS. This is a home field situation and should make it a tough game for the Bucs. Mike Evans has been a target machine the past three weeks with totals of 18, 14 and 11 targets. I expect Tampa to be playing from behind and for Jameis Winston to be airing it out all game in catch-up mode; Winston and Evans could easily clean up in garbage time. Bucs TE Cameron Brate has actually seen a bunch of targets the past couple of weeks since taking over for Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the starting TE spot. He’s averaged nine targets per game over the past couple of weeks; that’s not bad for a player with a sub $3000 DraftKings salary. Charles Sims had a rough outing against Denver last week but his outlook in this one isn’t much better. Carolina has been a top-10 team at stopping the run. The use of Sims in the passing game gives him a reasonably safe floor but there are better options in better spots at a similar salary to Sims this week.
Elite Plays, Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Mike Evans, Panthers Defense
Secondary: Cameron Brate
Conclusion
That’s it for the Week 5 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army premium members, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column. That should be live on Friday morning. If you are reading this via the DFS Army Android APP please be kind and leave a review. Click here to grab the app from the google play store or to leave a nice review if you have it already!
Good luck this week!
Week 5 DFS Army Articles
Geek’s Vegas Lines Week 5 DFS Strategy Breakdown
Geek’s Week 5 FanDuel and DraftKings Player Picks and Notes
Numbers Game 5 – NFL DFS Strategy Using Statistics
Week 5 DFS Army Stats/Projections Spreadsheet
Week 5 DFS Army Podcasts
VIP Podcast Link Available in Slack Chat