Welcome to Numbers Games. We at dfsarmy.com have created a one-stop shopping tool for your DFS research. A lot of sites have their own stat tool, but very few have some of the stats we utilize on a weekly basis in the army. I’m here to give you a little taste in how we have successfully identified some of our players so far. As fun as the research is, nothing takes away our true value. The DFS Army is perhaps the first DFS community to employ a full set of Slack Chat Channels to our VIPs. These channels give unprecedented access to a host of coaches from cash game expertise, to hybridized lineup building, to crazy fun tournament theories, and the ever-important bankroll management to keep you in the game long enough to hit your big score.
Time to dive into some players and make some choices playing…………Numbers Games.
Quarterbacks
You hear value, value, value is what rules the day in DFS. Price is king for sure, but how do you spot it? Our stat sheet uses a combination of many expert projections with our own weighted twist applied based on a number of factors like home/away, weather, movement in Vegas’ lines, and more. This ranking is shown to you right next to the player’s name. If you play on DraftKings, you might start by sorting the column by price. Sorting by price appears to jumble up the rankings. It is this method however, along with the safety of consensus projections, that allows you to immediately identify pricing discrepancies across the site you choose to play.
On the left you can see the ranking of the players based on salary/price. Cam Newton is the top priced QB and he also carries our highest current projection of the week. However, Drew Brees is the 2nd highest salary and only carries the 5th highest projection. This discrepancy suggests Drew Brees is overpriced on DraftKings this week. He might perform very well, but he isn’t a value based on his projection and salary. If we drop down the list a little we see a nice mismatch for Philip Rivers. The 7th highest salary (subract two since Cam is in the 3 spot but our top price), but the 3rd highest projection. It’s not hard to see this is a small bargain for you and is worthy of your consideration. Drop a little further, though, and you see better values in Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles. 10th and 11th salary ranks projected to score 6th and 4th highest on the week, respectively. The 4th highest projected total for the 11th highest price is a significant value to your roster.
Using our salary sorter and projections rankings is a very fast way to pick out the most valued players. Slotting deep value into your lineups allows you to spend up for those coveted studs in other positions that will give your lineup the added edge over your competition.
Running Backs
For the running back position, we have enough data now to watch two key indicators of consistency: Touches and DvP. Touches are how many times a player physically touches the ball whether it be handoffs or receptions. DvP is how soft the opposing defense is when facing the position we are looking at, in this case RBs.
First, look at who is getting the ball. Volume matters. Sure, efficiency does too, but let’s focus on volume today. Lamar Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, and LeGarrette Blount are all averaging 22-25 carries per game. No coincidence they are also the top 3 RBs on this list in terms of rushing yardage as well. 27-30 points over 9 games averages to 9-10 points per game w/o scoring TDs yet. That’s a floor! Add in some receptions like Lamar Miller and it’s another 2 points per game so far. Lamar Miller has nearly an 11 point floor before scoring a touchdown or breaking a huge play. Looking at Blount’s goal line usage, he has been called on 11 times in the red zone to rush the ball. 4 TDs is his result. Looking at red zone usage, Melvin Gordon is in there with CJ Anderson and David Johnson. These guys are all generally getting the ball, they don’t reside in a committee right now, and they are trusted in the red zone. These are safe cash game plays nearly game in and game out. We only need to look at their matchups and start picking a couple to throw in our lineups. The hard work of “is he in a committee?” has just been solved.
Looking at the far right column, we find the 2016 DVP numbers. Red is tough on running backs. Green is soft. We hopefully remember what Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman just did to San Diego on Monday night, right? Makes sense that Melvin Gordon is in a cherry matchup this week at home with the Saints visiting and bringing along their league-worst run defense. Gordon has seen 61 touches (54 rushes and 7 receptions) and the number might be higher if Danny Woodhead wasn’t heavily involved back in week 1. Gordon is the focal point right now and draws a phenomenal matchup. The other I might look to is CJ Anderson. CJ has 62 touches of his own and no competition for carries. He was also used heavily in the red zone (13 times). It appears that these two are both getting the work and their matchups this week should have trouble stopping them.
Wide Receivers
Again, I’d like to focus on volume and opportunity here. We want targets….lots of them. We know the studs get the targets. But what about the cheaper guys? The punts? If I’m looking to save money and just roster some floor, I want a receiver getting targeted consistently, but also catching balls at a high percentage.
First, we start by sorting the Catch % column from highest to lowest. I want targets just like I said above. 25+ targets over 3 games tells me these receivers are meshing with their QB. He is looking for them. These receivers are also running shorter routes and catching higher percentage balls. Some, like Doug Baldwin are heavy factors in the red zone, too. On a full ppr site, like DraftKings, this is creating another floor for us just like a running back earning a ton of touches. Adam Humphries is the low man here with 18 catches. However, that’s 18 points over 3 weeks…..or 6 points per game average. Add in his 200 yards for another 6.5 points per game and you have 12.5 points per game from him. That’s on par with Michael Crabtree‘s 19 receptions and 220 yards. Let’s scroll over and look at their prices.
Looking at the three receivers we spotlighted above, who is cheapest? Adam Humphries. If you were to get 12 points per game from Crabtree or Humprhies, who would you pay for? If you need to punt a receiver spot in cash-type lineups, this is one way to find who to correctly punt. And, before today, I bet you didn’t know the dude’s name. I know I didn’t. I had to have it mentioned to me earlier. Of course, I put on my research cap and decided to learn why he’s viable, not just his name. I think you know why now, too.
Hot Dog Wrappers
If you want some easy ways to spot players, there are a few tricks in using our VIP only stat sheets. With enough demand, we might just come back next week and do some more “Numbers Games” for you. If you haven’t looked into our VIP Membership, here is a link to more information. We really do aim to bring you the best value for your dollar. We believe that money should be invested in your DFS play, not ours.
We hope this NFL DFS strategy using NFL DFS stats provided you with plenty of helpful information. Let’s wrap this hot dog and head back to our seats! Good luck Sunday, Army. HOOAH!