It’s certainly a unique day in MLB with a number of serviceable pitching options, but intriguingly, most of them are going up against each other. This can make for a clustered situation but I will certainly have some thoughts to help you through the weeds tonight.
PITCHERS
Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds)
- He’s going against a Reds team that has mailed it in already this season. Not to mention, the Cubs are the largest favorites tonight (-285) by a landslide margin being that Lester has the rare benefit tonight of not having to go against a competent pitcher.
Jose Fernandez & Tanner Roark (Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals)
- Fernandez: He’s one of the best in the game, and especially when he’s at home. In 19 innings against the Nationals this season, Fernandez has 29 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP. However, this might be the right time to fade the most expensive pitcher across the industry since he’s seemingly wearing down with six or fewer strikeouts in five of his last seven games and 11 walks in his last four starts.
- Roark: Eight quality starts in his last 10 games should have the Nats feeling a little better about not having Stephen Strasburg on their upcoming playoff journey in a couple weeks. Roark’s strikeout totals have been up-and-down this season, but he does have 15 in his last two. The head-to-head matchup against Fernandez isn’t ideal, but the case can certainly be made for Roark.
Rich Hill & Johnny Cueto (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants)
- Hill: Disregard his last start in Arizona (as you should with a lot of pitchers), because before that he was on top of the world. I did say, however, to watch how getting pulled at the end of his perfect game bid would affect him in that next start. Now, whether that had to do with pitching in Arizona or being mentally log-jammed, we’ll never know, but I do like his chances tonight against a Giants team that got their hearts absolutely ripped out their chests in the ninth inning last night. Hill is basically matchup-proof in terms of strikeouts, so you may get him at a discounted ownership.
- Cueto: Hereeeeee’s Johnny! OK, I’m really not that excited about the prospect of his start tonight since the Dodgers are tied for second in all of MLB with a 108 wRC+ rating against right-handed pitching. However, Cueto has held his own against the boys in blue with a stat line of 28 IP, 20 H/5 BB, 10 ER (1 HR), 29 K.
Hisashi Iwakuma & J.A. Happ (Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays)
- Iwakuma: If anyone has to make a decision pertaining to the M’s, it has to be this guy; I mean, he’s been involved in plenty of them this season. Iwakuma has factored into an amazing 27 of his 30 starts this season, including 22 straight! B-A-N-A-N-A-S! He has lost his last two starts at Safeco Field, but he is 8-4 with a 3.59 ERA there this season. Of course, there is massive risk going up against the Blue Jays but the strikeout upside is there as well.
- Happ: He’s certainly been one of the biggest surprises this season with a 19-4 record and 3.27 ERA. However, we’re starting to see the strikeouts really take a dip with Happ, as he’s only had 13 in his last four starts. This is by no means an easy start for Happ, but at least he’ll have the home crowd behind him in Seattle… Seriously, what the hell was that last night? ALL of West Canada was at Safeco, crazy scene and they be back in mass numbers tonight.
Robert Gsellman & Julio Teheran (New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves)
- Gsellman: He’s going to work more effectively on SP2 sites from a $/pt perspective, but don’t expect too much against this Braves team whose been a royal pain in the ass in the second-half of the season. We’re looking for a win from Gsellman somehow, or a lucky day in some regard.
- Teheran: He’s been dealing outrageous against the Mets this season with a stat line of 23 IP, 10 H/2 BB, 2 ER (1 HR), 17 Ks. I’d err on the side of caution, as Teheran is finally due for a bad outing against these Mets. Also, with the Metropolitans in the thick of the Wild Card race and the Braves getting the first game of this series last night, I expect a fully focused Mets team to come out strong tonight.
*Bonus: According to the projections, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda are great $/pt plays but neither have inspired much hope lately. The game does have a 7.5 total in a great pitcher’s park, so if you’re into statistical plays, that’s yours for the day. Josh Tomlin, who is a -157 favorite, is also a great $/pt play against the KC Royals.
HITTERS
-TOP TIER-
- Brian Dozier (Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers) – A left-handed pitcher against Dozier? Sign me up. Today’s starter for the Tigers, Matt Boyd, has awful splits on the road and Dozier will take full advantage of this.
- Steven Piscotty & Randall Grichuk (St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies) – Two guys that have been crushing left-handed pitching this season in Coors Field is a good way to start things tonight.
-MIDDLE TIER-
- Adam Eaton & Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies) – These two guys main are in a prime position tonight for a team slated to score 4.8, according to Vegas.
- Adam Jones (Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox) – The O’s typically don’t hit lefties that well, but he’s had some success against Eduardo Rodriguez in the past with a homer to boot. Jones is also batting leadoff for an O’s team that is slated for 4.9 runs, according to Vegas.
- Jedd Gyorko (St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies) – He’s been much better against right-handed pitching this season, but I’ll take the chance on him at the low price of $3200 on FanDuel. Gyorko is 14-for-22 with a dong lifetime against Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa.
- Jonathan Villar (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates) – He’s priced very low at $3200 on FanDuel going against one of the worst pitchers on the slate. The stolen base is also there against this Pirates team.
-VALUE TIER-
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox – With the exception of Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez, there are plenty of cheap options coming from Philly tonight as they go up against James Shields. Roman Quinn has finally made his way onto FanDuel at $2200, as an absolute steal. Tommy Joseph is batting cleanup at $2200 on FD and Maikel Franco is at $2500 on the same site batting fifth. These same players are not that cheap on DraftKings, where I actually trust they know what they’re doing with the pricing.
- Yasmani Tomas (Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres) – Seriously, FanDuel? Still at $2600 against this subpar pitcher, Paul Clemens? OK…
- Adam Frazier (Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers) – I mentioned the leadoff hitter on the other side of this game, so it’s only fitting that we cover this side. Frazier is a miniscule $2200 on FanDuel tonight and sitting in a great position.