Welcome to Week 4 of the 2016 daily fantasy football season. There’s nothing better than waking up on Tuesday morning and seeing my Twitter feed/inbox loaded with thank you notes and screen shots of big cashes and GPP wins, plus a pile of new VIP members- it’s a great indicator of things going the right way. Heavy exposure to Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones, Jr. and Jarvis Landry alongside all-in plays on Cristine Michael and Melvin Gordon was enough for most people to finish strong in their tournaments last week. One of the things I like to do at the start of each week (I write this intro well before I get into the game breakdowns) is look back and see what the takeaways were from the previous week’s slate of action.
Week 3 Takeaways
- First and foremost, try to use home-team players in your cash lineups! Last week players like DeAngelo Williams, Stefan Diggs and Travis Benjamin were heavily used in cash lineups. All three bombed. They were fantastic values on some of the sites and the desire to use them in cash was justified. I’m not saying to completely shut out all road players from cash but players at home are just more efficient.
- Pay attention to line movement – this is interesting. Over the past two weeks I’ve noticed significant line movements in three games. In the Bills/Jets Thursday night game, the lines moved four total points taking Buffalo from initially favored to underdog status; the Jets wound up crushing them. Then we saw a similar move when the Patriots took on the Texans at home, and once again, the line moved around three points in the Patriots favor; the Pats wound up crushing the Texans. Finally, we saw a similar pattern this week with the Bills at home against the Cardinals, who were originally seven-point favorites. However, by game time, the Cards were only four-point favorites and wound up getting smashed by Rex Ryan’s bunch. The theory in analyzing the Vegas Lines each week is that the Vegas sharps know their shit. If we subscribe to that theory, then we should also note that sharp bettors know their shit as well. When a line moves significantly, particularly when there is no apparent catalyst, we need to adjust our outlook on that game. In the Patriots game, the shift in the lines was a screaming indicator to use Blount and Pats Defense. Without a QB, their only realistic shot of winning was with a combination of defense and the running game.
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WEEK 4 VEGAS LINES BASED GAME BREAKDOWNS
Thursday Night
At Cincinnati -7 Miami 44.5
TNF features a game with a low total as the Dolphins travel to the southwest corner of Ohio to take on the Bengals, who are seven-point favorites. Defensively, the Bengals are a solid unit, and they are particularly strong against the QB and WR positions. The Dolphins just got torched by a rookie third-string Cleveland QB so it’s safe to say their defense sucks.
Let’s start with the Dolphins, who are trotting out a trio of underwhelming RBs in this game. Since they are on the road and facing a defense that is really tough on opposing RBs, none of them are worth a sniff. Normally, I love me some Jarvis Landry in cash game situations, but this is a rough spot. Pass.
The Bengals look really solid here, as Vegas is expecting to see them out ahead with an early lead; I don’t mind stacking the Bengals D and Jeremy Hill in this one. Obviously, A.J. Green is in play facing a Miami defense that got torched by Terrelle Pryor last week. With Tyler Eifert still sidelined, there should still be plenty of targets available for AJ.
Elite Plays: A.J. Green, Bengals Defense, Jeremy Hill
Sunday Morning
10/2 9:30 AM Indianapolis -2.5 Jacksonville (At London) 49.5
In the first London game of the season, the Colts take on the Jags as slight favorites in a game Vegas expects to be high scoring. I’ll be playing the Thursday-Monday slate just so I can stack this game, and I recommend you do the same.
Vontae Davis played for the Colts last week but he left the game with some sort of tweak. Regardless, he doesn’t scurrrr me one bit. Last week, Allen Robinson had a nice game for the Jags – a stat line of 7/56/2 on 11 Targets. It’s odd that A-Rob hasn’t hit the 100-yard mark so far this season, but this is a good spot for him to test his ceiling. I expect a ton of scoring on both sides so Allen Hurns, who has been getting targeted plenty without having much production, is more of a GPP low-ownership play with some upside. It’s a decent risk, but his salary on most of the sites hasn’t come down enough for my taste. TE Julius Thomas is also more of a GPP play; he’s also a smidge overpriced ($4400 DraftKings) based on the production and consistency he brings to the table. Last week, Chris Ivory came back and he appears to be taking over as more of a lead back for the Jags. It’s important to note that the Jags have not been a team that produces quality scores from the RB position so make sure you temper those expectations. Ivory is really cheap though so he is GPP playable if you’re using a game stack.
It’s hard not to be excited about the Colts offense in this matchup; the Jags are pretty bad defensively across the board but they are particularly awful at defending the opposing WR1, thus leaving T.Y. Hilton’s mouth watering at the thought of this matchup. Last week, Phillip Dorsett failed to break out with a middling three receptions on four targets, but I think that might change this week and we should see low ownership on Dorsett after last week’s dud. The Colts have been playing more two TE sets with Donte Moncrief out and the primary beneficiary of his targets was actually TE Jack Doyle, who remains at minimum TE salary ($2500 on DK) and is a legit punt play this week. Frank Gore hit his ceiling last week and it was 21 carries, 82 yards and a TD. It’s encouraging that he got a few check down targets, but I’m still not on board with someone who has a 15-point ceiling.
Elite Plays: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles
Secondary Plays: Allen Hurns, Jack Doyle, Phillip Dorsett, Julius Thomas
Sunday Main Slate
At Washington -8.5 Cleveland 45.5
The Browns head to DC as massive nine-point underdogs in a game that Vegas listed as a mid-level 45.5 total. Normally when Vegas favors a home team by eight or more points, we look to target the host’s RBs, defense and kicker. The Skins don’t have much promise in their running game, even though Matt Jones is in one of the best spots he’ll see all season at home facing a soft defense. Jones hasn’t done much in previously optimistic spots to start the season and I have a hard time trusting him once again. The running game is not where we should be looking, but the defense and Dustin Hopkins could be our diamonds in the rough.
Cleveland’s defense has been mediocre so far this season, but they have been burned a bit by opposing top-flight WRs and TEs. This is interesting because the Redskins have a pretty good TE in Jordan Reed and their WR corps is led by big-play WR, Desean Jackson; he’s had a solid start to the season averaging about eight targets per game. It’s important to note that both Jae Crowder and Pierre Garcon are averaging the same eight targets per game, and the same goes for Reed. This tells me that the Redskins are spreading the ball around way too much for my comfort level to start the season.
The Redskins have been a bit of a funnel defense to start the season; they’ve done a great job stopping the run and a really shitty job against the pass. The Browns are rolling out Cody Kessler at QB again this week, who did very well in their last game down in Miami, going 21-for-33 with no interceptions, but he did fumble twice. The big story last week was the big day from #1 WR Terrelle Pryor, Sr. with a stat line of 8/144 on 14 Targets – tack on four rushes, a rushing TD and you’ve got yourself one of the best performances in all of Week 3. Pryor will be a popular low-salary WR option this week. Isiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, Jr. both continued their timeshare split at RB for the Browns so neither makes for a very good play facing a Redskins defense that has been shutting down opposing RBs. TE Gary Barnidge had a solid six target, five reception day for the Browns last week, but there are better options this time around at TE.
Elite Plays: Jordan Reed, Redskins Defense, Terrelle Pryor Sr.
At New England -4.5 Buffalo Off
In this game, the Bills head to Foxboro as 4.5-point underdogs to take on a Patriots team that actually doesn’t have a QB right now, that we know of. Belichick is so freaking good as a head coach that his team is actually favored without any certainty of who is going to play QB. I learned my lesson last week to not doubt the Patriots defense at home when they opened a can of whoop-ass on the Texans. They just always find a way to win and I’m not touching the Bills offense this week.
Realistically, with no actual QB as of this writing, I can’t see targeting the Patriots’ pass catchers either. That could change if Jimmy Garoppolo makes a miraculous recovery. But in the meantime, the script here says that the Pats defense and LeGarrette Blount are the plays.
Elite Plays: Patriots Defense, LeGarrette Blount
10/2 1:00 ET Seattle -1.5 At NY Jets 40.5
The Seahawks travel East as road favorites to take on the Jets this week, as both of these teams are quite stubborn on the defensive end. The Jets tend to stop the run and force teams to pass on them, while Seattle is just flat out solid all-around. Vegas agrees and slapped down a slate low 40.5-point total on this game so we should stay clear in all but the most far-flung of GPP lineups. If I had to choose one player that has a chance for a big day it would be Doug Baldwin. That said, Russel Wilson’s ankle got busted up last week and it’s not clear if he will be at full strength or if he will play at all. Pass.
10/2 1:00 ET Carolina -3 At Atlanta 50
This is going to be one of the most popular games on the slate for stacking purposes, and for good reason. The Falcons are three-point home dogs taking on a division rival in a game with a massive 50-point projected total and it’s an ALL HANDS ON DECK situation for both teams.
The Panthers bring a solid all-around defense to the table for this game, as they are equally solid against both the run and the pass. The Falcons offense has a number of ways to attack a defense, and last week, their 1-2 punch of Coleman and Freeman at RB looked like one of the best units in the league. People may be tempted to use one or both of them in this game but I’m not as high on the duo this week. Carolina’s run D is solid and the RBBC situation requires a Swiss Cheese defense, like the Saints, for both players to make value. Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu were both kept in check last week as the Falcons focused on their running attack. This week, facing a much tougher run defense, the Falcons will likely be forced to throw early and often- this bodes well for Sanu and Jones. Jacob Tamme is in a decent spot here as well. Carolina has been below average at defending the TE position so far this season.
Carolina gets to take on a Falcons team that is allergic to playing defense, so everyone wearing some sort of light blue is in play for this game. Greg Olsen has been averaging nine targets per game to start the season and he’ll be an elite cash play this week in a plus matchup. Kelvin Benjamin is basically the only consistent WR for the Panthers, even though he was blanked last week to the tune of one target and no receptions; hopefully, fantasy players will remember that and hesitate to roster him this week. Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn, Jr. and Philly Brown have all rotated in the WR2 and WR3 spots to start the season and no one in the trio has distinguished themselves. Gun to my head, I’d probably take Ginn in a GPP for that big-play potential. The Panthers RB situation is ugly right now as Fozzy Whittaker, Cameron Artis-Payne and even Mike Tolbert are all getting in on the action. It’s a situation to avoid, but overall, this game has a ton of stack appeal.
Elite Plays: Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Jacob Tamme
Secondary: Mohammed Sanu, Tevin Coleman
10/2 1;00 ET Detroit -3 At Chicago 46.5
The Lions travel to Chicago as road favorites to take on a Bears team that hasn’t looked great to start the season. Both of these defenses are below average across the board so this game may go under the radar with some sleeper appeal.
One fascinating aspect of the Bears offense at the beginning of the season has been the volume of targets that have gone to #2 WR Kevin White. Last week he was targeted by Hoyer 14 times, but despite all those looks (without much production), his salary continues to drop and he definitely has some sleeper appeal this week. Alshon Jeffrey is the main man for the Bears and I expect him to bounce back this week after a somewhat disappointing game at Dallas. Zach Miller had the big game last week with eight receptions and two TDs; he has some punt appeal at the TE spot this week. The big story is the Bears run game- Langford is out for a while and it seems like Jordan Howard is the only game in town this week. It was encouraging to see Howard being used in the passing game with 4 receptions on 6 targets after Langford went down last week. Howard is super cheap on the DFS sites and should be a very popular salary-saving option.
For Detroit, it’s been the Marvin Jones, Jr. show to start the season; he’s a top play this week facing a non-existent Bears pass defense. I’m not sure what’s up with Golden Tate so far, but his production does not justify his artificially-inflated salary level across the DFS sites. If I felt the need to grab a second WR from Detroit, I’d lean towards the ageless Anquan Boldin. Eric Ebron has also been decent to start the season averaging around seven targets and five receptions per game; he will be a TD-dependent punt play this week. At RB it’s a muddy situation for the Lions with Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington splitting touches. Riddick gets plenty of passing game usage and he is the type of player that can go off at any time for a big game, a la your poor man’s Danny Woodhead. We’ll see what comes of Washington.
Elite Plays: Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones Jr., Brian Hoyer, Alshon Jeffrey, Jordan Howard
Secondary Plays: Kevin White (I love the number of targets he is seeing vs his low salary level), Zach Miller
10/2 1:00 ET At Houston -5 Tennessee 40.5
The Texans got terrible news this week when it was reported that JJ Watt could be done for the season with a back issue. The line has actually moved two points in the Titans direction since the news hit, but the game total has not moved, as the Titans now come in as five-point dogs in a game with one of the lowest totals of the slate.
There’s not much to like about this game on paper. Both of these teams play solid defense and limit opposition’s fantasy point production. The Titans have been particularly stout in their run defense and this should limit Miller’s upside and push the Texans to throw more. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are both playable at home this week.
So far this season, the best fantasy assets on the Titans have been Demarco Murray and Delanie Walker; this will not change in Houston this week. Walker was out with an injury for last week’s game and it looks like he will be back for this one. I’m generally not high on using players coming off a recent injury, so that limits my desire to use Walker. However, it is worth noting that he has torched the Texans in the past. The JJ Watt news helps DeMarco Murray’s outlook the most in this game- he’s been extremely consistent this season exceeding 20 PPR points every game so far. That should continue this week.
Elite Plays: DeMarco Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller
At Baltimore -3.5 Oakland 46.5
The Raiders travel East in a game projected to be close and relatively high-scoring. They’ll face a Ravens pass defense that hasn’t allowed a top 15 QB total in its past six games. It’s safe to say the Ravens have flipped the script on their Swiss Cheese reputation from early 2015, so I can’t see using anyone from the Raiders in my cash lineups this week. If I wanted to do a game stack, I’d consider Amari Cooper.
This is a much better spot for the Ravens. The fact that the Ravens running game is a complete mess right now is a plus for Joe Flacco and his WR targets. Let’s start with Wallace- he’s averaging only six targets and an inefficient 3.2 receptions per game. His $5200 salary on DraftKings is way too high for a player with a very low floor, so I prefer the ageless Steve Smith Sr. in this spot. SSS has seen his targets and yardage totals increase weekly, and while we haven’t seen him test his ceiling yet, this seems is an ideal spot for that to happen. The other noteworthy Raven is Dennis Pitta, who continues to be a target machine in this offense. Flacco loves him, and he’s a safe floor punt with upside in this week’s matchup.
Elite Plays: Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr.
Secondary: Amari Cooper, Dennis Pitta
Denver -3 At Tampa Bay 44.5
The Broncos travel to the Gulf Coast of Florida as favorites in a game with a relatively low-projected total. We know the Broncos are a relentless defense across the board, while Tampa, on the other hand, has been pretty solid at stopping the run this season but completely awful against the pass.
This is actually a decent spot for the Broncos offense. Emanuel Sanders has been legit this season, getting targeted on more than 30% of his routes; this is the kind of number we love in DFS because it allows the floor to be so high. Demaryius Thomas is also in play this week facing that nonexistent Tampa pass defense. C.J. Anderson’s matchup isn’t as solid, but if you think the Broncos will win this game, he will probably be a big part of it. A decent GPP contrarian stack may be combining the Denver defense with Anderson.
Tampa’s offense is in a tough spot. Denver’s defense is as good as it gets across the board, so it’s probably best to completely fade the Tampa offense. There is one potential play that stands out: Last week, Cameron Brate was elevated to the starting TE spot for the Bucs and put up a nice 5/46/2 stat line on 10 targets. He is still at minimum salary on most of the DFS sites and makes for an acceptable salary saving punt this week. Realistically, I have no intention of using Brate this week, but he is a player to keep on the radar.
Elite Plays: Emanuel Sanders, CJ Anderson
Secondary: Denver Defense, Demaryius Thomas
Dallas -3 At San Francisco 45.5
The Cowboys travel to the stadium that’s named after a pair of dungarees as road favorites in a game with a middling total. Both of these teams sport mediocre defenses, so basically, there’s nothing to worry about here. Dallas makes up for it by deploying a run-heavy scheme that eats up the clock, which keeps the ball out of enemy hands. I expect a close game throughout.
As I write this column, things aren’t looking well for Dez Bryant; he’s got a knee issue and it’s not clear if he will play this week. If he does play, he will probably be hobbled, but assuming he doesn’t play, the main WR for the Cowboys this season has actually been Cole Beasley. He’s seen 12, 6 and 7 targets over the first three weeks and has easily delivered value in PPR sites. Beasley should see an uptick in usage with Dez on the shelf and I could also see some sneaky sleeper appeal with Terrance Williams; aka “T Dubbs” is the most likely candidate to step into the Dez role for the Cowboys. Unfortunately, he sucks, but beggars can’t be choosers. Zeke Elliott has seen a massive workload to start the season and he should get plenty of opportunities in a game his team projects to be leading in. I like that Dallas doesn’t really have a red zone threat at WR, so this means that they are more likely to try and pound it in with Elliott.
Normally, I’ll completely ignore the 49ers offense. Since they are at home, in what looks like a close game, I figured I’d give them the once over. I discovered that the 49ers are who we thought they were- a team that has literally done nothing in the passing game. They don’t have a single pass catcher with fantasy value. The only possible play here is Carlos Hyde, who is in a decent spot in a home game facing a mediocre defense. He also happened to torch the Seattle Defense to the tune of 100+ yards and 2 TDs last week. His salary is at punt levels and the opportunities/upside will be there for him in a close game
Elite Plays: Cole Beasley, Carlos Hyde, Zeke Elliott
Secondary: Terrance Williams
10/2 4:25 ET At San Diego -4 New Orleans 53.5
Chalk Alert! This game has a ton of stack appeal, as the Chargers are home favorites taking on the Saints in the game with one of the highest totals on the slate. The Saints defense is as bad as they have ever been, weakened in every aspect of the game. Defensively, the Chargers haven’t been that much better, but the toughest part of this game is figuring out which players will go off.
For the Chargers, it starts with Melvin Gordon. After watching the combination of Freeman and Coleman tear up the Saints D in primetime, I expect Gordon will be the most popular player on the slate this week. As a bonus, Gordon was the only name in town for the Chargers at the RB position last week; he saw seven targets in the passing game and got all of the rushing attempts. At WR, the combo of Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams are splitting looks almost evenly right now. Williams is a bit cheaper and his projection is similar. At TE, it looks like Hunter Henry will get another start in place of Gates; he saw five targets last week and his minimum salary makes him at least somewhat interesting as a punt option.
The Saints are also in a solid spot. One thing we know about the Saints is that they are going to spread the ball around. Last week Willie Snead sat out with an injury and Michael Thomas stepped up in his place; Thomas was mostly used in short-yardage slant plays but he did get 11 targets and converted a TD in the process. Since the game last week was on Monday, the DFS sites weren’t able to calculate the production into the salary on Thomas for this week so he makes for a nice salary WR punt this week that gets elevated to must play status if Snead is out again. Brandon Cooks was silent last week hauling in just two of eight targets while being blanketed by Desmond Trufant and faces an ever tougher assignment this Sunday against elite CB Jason Verrett.
The Saint with the best matchup in this game is actually Coby Fleener, another player whose salary should have risen this week after a huge Week 3 line of 7/109/1 on 11 targets. The Chargers lost MLB Manti Teo last week and they were already terrible at covering the TE spot before he went down. Fleener borders as in an ALL IN play for me this week at his artificially depressed salary level. Finally, we have Mark Ingram. The Chargers are most susceptible to TEs and RBs, so I like that he continues to get heavy usage in the passing game for the Saints. Ingram has lacked the volume of carries I like to see from a workhorse RB, but he’s topped out at 15 carries and 77 yards this season, which is a redeeming quality, given the fact that he averages about four receptions per game.
Elite Plays: Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Coby Fleener
Secondary: Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram, Drew Brees
At Arizona -8.5 Los Angeles 43.5
The Cardinals collapsed last week against the Bills on the road and I expect them to play angry in this one. Vegas sees it the same, as they set up the Cardinals as massive an 8.5-point favorite in what should be a low-scoring affair.
The Rams offense is completely OFF LIMITS in this game.
For the Cardinals, Mike Floyd is dealing with a concussion and may not play. That opens the door for some extra targets to Larry Fitzgerald, and possibly John Brown. The main man for the Cardinals offense will probably be David Johnson this week. I expect them to dominate the Rams defensively which should set up well for the Cardinals running game.
Elite Plays: Arizona Defense, Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson
8:30 ET At Pittsburgh -5.5 Kansas City 47.5
The Sunday Night Hammer game has the Chiefs traveling to Heinz Field as 5.5-point underdogs in a game with a fairly high total. This game has some stack appeal with a projection that should be close and high-scoring.
The Steelers get LeVeon Bell back for this one. All the reports are saying that Bell should be good to go as far as his conditioning goes. As well as Deangelo Williams has played, I’d be shocked if this isn’t some sort of 70-30 type split.
I’m expecting a high-flying affair here with the Steelers getting off to a quick lead and the Chiefs chasing and keeping it close. The Chiefs offense runs through the Trio of Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and Spencer Ware- all three are in play this week. Maclin should go well under the radar because he basically hasn’t done anything this season. He will break out soon enough and this is as good of a spot for him as there will be this season. The Steelers run defense has been pretty solid to start the season but Ware has been a double-threat and can do damage via the run and the pass.
For Pittsburgh, it starts, and ends, with the Killer B’s – Ben, Brown and Bell. Feel free to stack all three of these guys in this game. Antonio Brown has the highest salary and projection of the week across the DFS landscape. Try to squeeze him into your cash lineups.
Elite Plays: Ben, Brown, Bell, Kelce, Maclin, Ware
Monday Night Football
At Minnesota -4 NY Giants 43.5
I’m going to keep this one simple. One of my rules of thumb for the 2016 season – Don’t play any offensive players when they are on the road facing the following teams – Vikings, Cardinals, Patriots and Denver. The Giants are on the road playing the Vikings so I’ll be completely fading their offense.
The Vikings get a much better matchup taking on the Giants as home favorites. I’m expecting a bounce-back game for Stefon Diggs in this spot. He is the clear cut #1 WR for the Vikings and there really isn’t a second WR worth consideration. Kyle Rudolph isn’t a technically a WR, but he does catch passes- he’ll work in this spot too considering how generous the Giants are to opposing TEs. One interesting note is that the Vikings appear to be using Jerick McKinnon as their primary RB right now. Last week he got 16 carries and a couple of passing game targets. The Ass Man, Matt Asiata, only got six carries and one passing game target. We’ll see if that continues. For now, I’d consider McKinnon as a salary saving RB option with some upside.
Elite Plays: Vikings Defense, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph
Secondary: Jerick Mckinnon
Conclusion
That’s it for the Week 4 Vegas Lines breakdown. For those of you that are DFS Army premium members, I’ll have my complete player picks posted later this week. Also be on the lookout for my VIP Exclusive Podcast where we will break down each game in greater depth than what I can do here in the column. That should be live on Thursday morning. If you are reading this via the DFS Army Android APP please be kind and leave a review. Click here to grab the app from the google play store or to leave a nice review if you have it already!
Good luck this week!
DFS Army Week 4 Articles
Geek’s Week 4 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Based Breakdown
Numbers Games – NFL DFS Strategy Using Statistics
The Geek’s Week 4 FanDuel and DraftKings Player Picks and Notes
Entering the Coccosphere – Chalk and Pivot Plays
DFS Army Week 4 Podcasts
See Link in Slack Chat for VIP Week 4 DFS Army Podcast