Welcome into another bout with the Coccosphere! This column is evolving a bit and we haven’t quite settled into a format yet, but I think this week might stick. The goal here is to identify the chalkier plays of the week and the coinciding pivot plays. Last week was fine, but the chalk winds up being all high-dollar plays most times. We are diversifying a bit this week. I am including what I believe to be the more household names in different pricing tiers along with my ownership projection for them. This way, we can talk about both if a player is going to be rather chalky and/or if there is a nice pivot off said player. Perhaps a dollar-for-dollar pivot, an in-game pivot, or a pivot heading a completely different direction.
But, before we move into that, I wanted to supply my core players to you guys. I’m admittedly a smaller bankroll player. I am not running 100 lineups out there each week. I suspect most of you are not either. When Kevin supplies a player list as large as he does, I notice our Army members get confused and try and play them all. They do so almost as if afraid to make mistakes in their lineups. I empathize with that feeling, but what we have to learn as players is not all of Kevin’s plays can make OUR lists.
Read here for the concept of tightening your core of players.
QB – Cam, Stafford, Rivers, Cousins
RB – DJ, Bell, Gordon, Hyde, Blount, Howard
WR – Antonio, MJJ, Pryor (DK), Baldwin, Manny Sanders, Larry Fitz, Beastley, TBenj
TE – Miller, Henry, Olsen, Pitta
DST – ARI, HOU, WAS
K – Aaron handles kickers. I’m all in on Josh Lambo and maybe some Dustin Hopkins. Other than that, don’t care….lol
This week’s strategy section was introduced as a completely separate article many of you enjoyed. The article was called “Numbers Games” and helped you learn our spreadsheets. If you missed it, run back through when you get time.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton is going to be chalk no matter what you hear about his history in the Georgia Dome. This game carries a high Vegas total and people love his floor. ATL is a league worst at allowing points to QBs. Easy chalk play and perhaps the QB you simply ink into your lineups since we have plenty of value to reach him this week. Also, the pricing at QB is so tight at the top. If you had $500 left from Matt Stafford or Drew Brees, are you staying with those guys in cash or just reaching up for Cam? Yup…so is everyone else. PIVOT – Your pivot at the higher price range is Drew Brees, though. Most know his home/road splits. But, this is perhaps a #RevengeNarrative if you like those. Brees was pretty much dumped by San Diego. Brees should be fired up in this one. You get him at lower ownership because people are just going to spend up for Cam and turn to other positions.
Phillip Rivers is your mid-range chalk play at home vs the putrid NO Saints. Rivers was a little bit of a let down in Indy last week, but he returns home and people refusing to pay up for Cam are coming down just a smidge to Rivers. I don’t expect him to be super high owned, but that’s only because people are going all the way up to Cam or down much lower. The middle priced QBs are getting lost in that shuffle. PIVOT – Across the line of scrimmage to Brees again. Lower ownership, same shootout game scheduled.
Kirk Cousins makes for the chalky play vs CLE this week people are flocking to if they aren’t spending for Cam. People are going to want a nice “savings” if not spending up, so Cousins offers 300 yd games consistently and a soft defense in the Browns on the road. He will be a little chalky, but also makes a pivot play from Cam if you are wanting a different style of construction to get away from the same basic RBs and WRs people will be using with Cam in their lineups. PIVOT – Wanna get even lower ownership with a solid floor and chance at upside? Joe Flacco. Last few times Flacco has played Oakland, he has just torched them for 384 yds/2 td/1 int and 341/3/1. This time, he’s at home.
Running Backs
David Johnson will be highly owned and is still underpriced for his production. Used in both passing and running games, he has a very high floor. However, I’d prefer him on FD instead of DK where he is priced up a little. On DK/FD2, I’d swing to LeVeon Bell this week (although either are fine if you play only one site). A ton of dfs players are excited to get Bell back in the mix. I don’t see him being cheaper than this the rest of the year, especially if he has a good game out of the gate. This might be a spot PIT looks to force feed him into action as well. Very highly owned. PIVOT – Ezekiel Elliot gets volume and is in a good spot in SF this week. Don’t get caught up in the “where are the DAL targets going w/0 Dez” bullshit. Zeke is getting volume and the only reason we aren’t all talking about him being chalk is the lack of TDs. That might change soon. Another even lower owned guy should be Lamar Miller. Another volume play, this game is horrible on paper. However, he gets 3 down work in HOU and with Mariota coming to town, we might see HOU operating with a nice little lead late in the game. 30 touches is not out of the question here. If he breaks out, this could be the week…..and no one will play him because they will see both Bell and Johnson right there next to his name.
Melvin Gordon is your chalkiest of chalk this week again. Johnson and Bell will sort of split the ownership like Gary Johnson. Gordon, however, is priced just slightly underneath them AND has recency bias in his favor. Not of last week’s so-so performance in Indy, but of what Coleman/Freeman did to NOLA on Monday Night. People are expecting Gordon to run for 250 and score 8 times. While that won’t happen, he might get a third of the way there….which would still be a massive game. PIVOT – Same basic pivots as above since the prices are close.
Jordan Howard becomes this week’s “backup getting the load” candidate. Chicago historically throws to their backs, so his 3 down work should be secure. So should be his floor at this price point. But, everyone knows and if they want Antonio or a higher priced back with him, this is where they are going to look. PIVOT – Carlos Hyde isn’t exactly low owned, but he will be overlooked in this spot this week. It’s the Carlos Hyde show in SF and it doesn’t matter if they are 300 points behind. He is getting the work like Shady in Buffalo because he is literally all they have. A lot of players have yet to come around and take notice of his volume. But, that’s why we have the spreadsheet tool for our VIPs. We spotlighted volume for RBs in this week’s Numbers Game a little.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown is just a machine. He would be getting to the point of unrosterable in cash formats if not for the value in other places this week. Watch him going forward. If his price climbs much higher, his ownership will come down. However, he is literally the best WR on planet earth and produces like it most weeks. PIVOT – Julio Jones. Most will be off Julio because of the stinker on MNF. While that looks like a stinker, it’s actually not. Those RBs were destroying NO to the point he wasn’t really needed. Julio still sees 8 targets per game, has easy 100 yd game stuff, and scores TDs (2 this year already). He has double dong pop and might win a GPP for you. He is still that good. Capitalize on people’s frustration.
Marvin Jones Jr. was supposed to be dealing with some minor injury. However, it appears he is practicing today. Chalk him up. Amazing how you can go from WTF status in week one to a DFS Darling in about a week’s time. That’s what 200 yards does for your draft stock. He is the clear focal point in DET and with CHI being CHI, I assume you can fire him right up with everyone else this week. PIVOT – Kelvin Benjamin uses recency bias more like Julio than MJJ. People are suddenly afraid of him and his one target. C’mon man! News in the Carolinas broke of overlooking him last week and they “aim to fix it.” That means KBenj is going to see the ball exponentially more often this week Trufant be damned. Trufant makes this a bit of a risky maneuver for cash, but for GPPs…….hellz yeh. Stack this bitch with Cam.
Terrelle Pryor Sr makes me want to give another category beyond “very high.” Maybe I should say he’s so high he’s stoned?! Are people overreacting? We’ll see this week. He catches, throws, runs, factors in at the goal line in the wildcat, I mean the sky’s the limit for this guy. He is the Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy of his team…….only more dynamic. He’s over-owned on FD1, so don’t use him there as often, if at all. However, on DK and FD2, he’s a free space must play in cash formats. I wonder if you can fade him in tourneys at that price. Pryor should be the highest owned player on the slate. PIVOT – There really isn’t one dollar for dollar here. I’d take Pryor over Beasley or Crowder. But, if you want to fade him, you need to focus on getting off the construction of players that will be using him. That most likely entails going completely balanced at all spots since these value guys are leaning towards more studs n scrubs construction.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen step right up, you are the next to take on the shit show that is ATL TE defense! Cash safe and a chalky play. I don’t like personally paying up for TE, but with the money flying around off value plays, this might be a week I do so. And, in cash/hybrids I’m starting right here. PIVOT – You might think I’m going Jordan Reed here, and you may have a point. He has to have a breakout game soon. However, I’m not. I’m rolling out Gronk Smash on you. He is rumored to be taking a full workload and with Garrapolo under center, we know how young QBs like their TEs. Buffalo is a middle of the road defense and nothing to fret vs TEs. Gronk has more 2 TD upside than anyone on the planet and has all but slipped from everyone’s mind lately. People will head to LeVeon before Gronk easily. In a GPP, you may want a piece of Gronk and hope Reed does what he’s been doing and Cam vultures production from Olsen.
Zach Miller and Hunter Henry are another situation of splitting votes. This is truly a tough question in my opinion if you are paying down at TE this week. My suggestion? Make 2 lineups and have Miller in one and Henry in the other. I love punting TE, and so does the chalk. Like QB, those that aren’t on Cam will come down to Cousins and those at TE that aren’t on Olsen will come down here to Miller and Henry. PIVOT – Cameron Brate has my eye as he stepped right in for the drunken ASJ after the Bucs cut him like my name off his liver donor list. #TooSoon? Brate picked up a couple RZ targets last week with all that volume TB is pumping out. 58 pass attempts is Drew Bledsoe-esque and something we need to be watching going forward. Get a softer matchup than Denver and you are rolling in volume. Denver usually suffers a bit to TEs but they are ranked 17th right now after facing Olsen and the two-headed beast from IND “Allen-Doyle.” It’s not like they’ve faced schmucks. Keep Brate on your radar, but if you want off the herd this week, he’s definitely a guy you look at.
Team Defenses
Once again, not going to say a lot here other than to point out where the herd might be grazing this week. MIN is giving every male not on Viagra a natural boner this season. Rightfully so, but people are going to be all over them like……………well, I’m crude enough. I can leave at least one dangling out there. If not playing the MNF slate, you are likely looking at Arizona as the place to play if you have enough money leftover after Cam, Olsen, and Antonio. If not, you are likely looking to continue picking on that CLE offense and their rookie QB. However, beware. You can’t be doing that if you have Pryor on your team. That is what will keep WAS’s ownership down to moderate levels unless people haven’t yet read Kevin’s Training Camp Series. PIVOT – There are quite a few decent defenses from which to choose. DEN, NEP, and HOU are where I’m looking. Denver on the road will scare chalky chalks like me. New England should shut down Shady, but might not get Tyrod to just throw them the ball directly. Houston no longer has JJ Watt and that has people scared off an otherwise fabulous situation at home. All three defenses are in play and will be lower owned for those aforementioned reasons.
Hot Dog Wrappers
Just my dumb ass way of saying I’m done. Wrap this up like a hot dog and head back to your seats. The show is about to start. HOOAH!
DFS Army Week 4 Articles
Geek’s Week 4 Daily Fantasy Football Vegas Lines Based Breakdown
Numbers Games – NFL DFS Strategy Using Statistics
The Geek’s Week 4 FanDuel and DraftKings Player Picks and Notes
Entering the Coccosphere – Chalk and Pivot Plays
DFS Army Week 4 Podcasts
See Link in Slack Chat for VIP Week 4 DFS Army Podcast