Welcome into another bout with the Coccosphere! This column is evolving a bit and we haven’t quite settled into a format yet, but I think this week might stick. The goal here is to identify the chalkier plays of the week and the coinciding pivot plays. Last week was fine, but the chalk winds up being all high-dollar plays most times. We are diversifying a bit this week. I am including what I believe to be the more household names in different pricing tiers along with my ownership projection for them. This way, we can talk about both if a player is going to be rather chalky and/or if there is a nice pivot off said player. Perhaps a dollar-for-dollar pivot, an in-game pivot, or a pivot heading a completely different direction.
But, before we move into that, I wanted to supply my core players to you guys. I’m admittedly a smaller bankroll player. I am not running 100 lineups out there each week. I suspect most of you are not either. When Kevin supplies a player list as large as he does, I notice our Army members get confused and try and play them all. They do so almost as if afraid to make mistakes in their lineups. I empathize with that feeling, but what we have to learn as players is not all of Kevin’s plays can make OUR lists.
Hitting the Bullseye
When we play DFS, we are trying to hit the bullseye. And, we are trying to hit it HARD. We can’t do that with a shotgun approach. We need a rifle with a scope on it. Sure, if I fire 100 pellets at a target some will hit, but most will maybe get close at best. With 10 bullets and a scope, however, I can damned near hit the bullseye with every shot if my scope is dialed in correctly.
I say this for an image of your DFS lineups. Are you using a shotgun or a rifle? A shotgun would be playing every player on Kevin’s list and nearly tossing out combos blindly. Sure, you are stacking QBs and WRs and whatnot, but when you try and mix and match 100 players with just 6 lineups, you get so evenly spread out you just can’t hit anything hard. Some lineups do well, some not, many so-so. If this is you, we need to switch off that shotgun and pick up the rifle. You need to tighten your core of selected players each week.
If you listened to our podcast (yes, I know it’s long), you heard Kevin mention how he builds multi-entry lineups. He will throw out a game stack, perhaps Drew Brees, Willie Snead, Muhammed Sanu, and Jacob Tamme. Then, he will use that combo of players for ten lineups or so. He keeps that the same and just backs out of a lineup, then changes the RBs, a WR, and DST over and over and over again for 10 lineups. This is moving from the shotgun to the rifle in a way. If that grouping of players does well, you are really close to the bullseye with those 10 lineups. You just need the right combination of secondary plays to really hone in on the center and bink something great.
Sure, maybe Kevin can do that with 100 lineups and 10 different cores of players. I can’t do that personally. But, I can employ that philosophy to his list of players.
Dialing in Your Scope
Looking at Kevin’s list of player picks HERE, we see he has 13 QBs on it. Even if we only focus on the green and yellow players, it’s still a list of 5. Seriously, how can you use all of them this week? You can’t most likely. You are going to need to make some decisions. I suggest cutting it down to just 2. Now, do the same with RBs and cut it from 15 to 5. WRs from 32 down to 10. TEs to 2. DSTs to 2. Now, you have a cut down list. If the player didn’t make YOUR list, don’t play him. Kevin did most of the dirty work for you in knocking down the 32 QBs to 13 and categorizing them as GPP only or cash safe.
But, with a smaller bankroll, you need to cut that list down further in hoping to get off your shotgun and onto your rifle with the scope.
My Core for Week 3
I am an open book. I aim to share everything I learn to our valued members here. Honestly, I just don’t know any other way. So, while these aren’t probably the best players in Kevin’s mind this week, they are mine. And, they are 99% off his list.
- QBs – Brees, Rivers, Mariota
- RBs – DWill, DJohnson, Gordon, Forte, Riddick
- WRs – Jordy, Cooks, ARob, Cooper, Snead, Landry, JMatt, MJJ, TBenj, Shephard, Diggs, Sharpe
- TEs – Walker, Tamme, Burton (DK), Pitta
- DSTs – SEA, CAR, MIA, TBB, DAL
- Ks – Vinatieri, Lambo, Bailey
That core is what I’m using. If they are not on this list, they don’t play this week for me. You should make your own and ride or die. We have several weeks of NFL and the data is just not starting to get somewhat reliable. If this list does well, I do well. If it doesn’t, I don’t. I’m ok with that. I don’t need to win every week. By narrowing Kevin’s list down to my own tighter list, I’ve increased my chances of hitting a bullseye. If this core does well, I do so well with my ladders, it pays for several weeks of play…..maybe more. You simply don’t need to win every week to win in this industry. You have to use upside in your lineups (80/20 Rule) to make the winning weeks you do have overcome the weeks you don’t win. No one wins every week. No one.
I mentioned earlier that Kevin may use a core for a lineup in the form of a game stack. That is a GPP strategy only. Don’t dare put 3 players from one team in a cash lineup. And, certainly don’t take another player from the opposing team “in case it shoots out.” In cash games, you want to spread your risk out. Your core list of players will tighten you up. Don’t further tighten things by stacking games. QB/WR or DST/K? Those are fine, but those are about the max I’d go at adding risk to a cash lineup. QBx/WRx/WRx/WRy is a GPP only play. If you get tempted to do this in cash, may I refer you to last week’s New Orleans vs New York Giants game? Yeh……see what I mean? Don’t give me the “but if that game HAD gone off” bit. I’ve heard it. For cash, it’s stupid. You don’t need that upside to hit and push you past a H2H player or a 50/50 contest. Stay smart. Stay rather spread out.
Enter the Coccosphere
A little quick color coding lesson for you in regards to the graphics you will see. Green is high ownership, and a fine thing in cash games. Yellow is middling. Orange is lower ownership, sometimes surprisingly so. Red would be pretty low. You won’t see it often in a chalk report. Personally, I like to try and hit the green chalk players in cash games. I tend to like letting others willing to gamble make their mistakes by taking unnecessary risks. I just take my boring, obvious players and move on in H2Hs and 50/50s. This is honestly where the bulk of my winnings come from. I just keep hitting double ups and leagues and wait and wait for the time I get lucky and hit a GPP kind of hard. I have very little risk of ruin. I have only redeposited once on FanDuel…………..and it was 3 years ago. Boring works. Ask Tom Kite, John Stockton, Greg Maddux, or Dale Earnhardt Jr. Be consistently better than average and ride that shit to the bank. Hell, ask Bill Belichick.
QUARTERBACKS
Drew Brees – This year, QB has been rather spread out in terms of ownership. Players are starting to realize there are tons of options in any given week and they don’t have to simply pay up to get the stability and points they need. However, there are times to pay up, and this is one with Drew Brees in a great spot at home facing a poor passing defense. Really, any time Brees is at home, he will be in play. We mentioned last week that Drew is as much as 50% less efficient on the road for some reason leading him to be overpriced and more of a GPP play. However, at home, he is one of the best still and everyone knows it. He will be rather highly owned among quarterbacks this week as a result. PIVOT – Obviously, a good pivot is Matt Ryan here. But, it’s not sneaky. My pivot in the high salary range would be either Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers. Cam will be highly owned, but in cash games, he won’t be as high as his floor should make him. Drew has a high floor, but Cam’s is higher even facing tougher defenses. In 2015, Cam faced SEA at home and still put up 23 fantasy points despite throwing two picks. That’s a floor! Aaron Rodgers is facing DET and last season facing DET, Discount Doublecheck put up 29 and 25 fantasy points against them without Jordy Nelson. This season, people are starting to grumble that Rodgers is overpriced, yet he has put up 21 and 26 points already in his two games. Not too bad for a guy people are starting to also question as “not in peak form yet.” You will get Rodgers very low owned this week should you pivot off the obvious.
Marcus Mariota – You hear the buzz about how OAK has given up the most passing yards defensively to start a season. Mariota is in a great spot accordingly. He has a weapon in Tajae Sharpe that is the cheapest consensus WR1 on his team (I would argue Beasley is temporarily the #1 in Dallast, but that might start a riot.) Add in DeMarco Murray receiving more than he’s running and Delanie Walker being the most consistent TE over the past year and a half when it comes to team targets and receptions outside maybe only Jordan Reed, and you have a 3-headed monster that is tough for anyone to defend, let alone a porous secondary on the road. Somehow, people will think Mariota is risky this week because he’s not yet a household DFS name. Marcus has put up 22 and 21 points this season in fantasy. I don’t know about you, but that’s pretty consistent. And in weeks 11 through 14 last year, before getting shut down, his lowest week of production was 17 pts. The others, in case you are curious, were 26, 44, and 21 respectively.
Ryan Tannehill – This is a name that honestly shocked me a bit. I don’t think he’s all that chalky, but people are buzzing over him so I might wind up wrong. Being at home and a heavy favorite creates a situation usually suited to a big running game late. Well, Miami has one of the league’s craziest backfields right now, so it looks like Tannehill will be forced into the air from start to finish here. Looking further, I thought the same about Cam last week at his 10 points Vegas favorite position. Cam was pretty highly owned, so again, maybe I miss out on this one pretty bad. I just don’t see Tannehill needing to throw for a ton of yards in this one, using some kind of running game, and not needing to push the envelope in the 4th quarter with a sizable lead taking TDs off the field for him.
PIVOT – There isn’t really much of a “pivot” down here because these guys aren’t going to be super highly owned in my opinion. But, I’d look at names like Philip Rivers (whom I think will be higher owned than Mariota and Tannehill), Kirk Cousins (due for bounceback any week now), Andy Dalton, or Carson Wentz in these lower priced quarterbacks with some upside and lower ownership. Did you realize Andy Dalton has started off the year with back to back 350+ passing weeks for the bargain price of $5700 on DK? Yup, I didn’t realize that either.
RUNNING BACKS
DeAngelo Williams – Last week taught me a lot about DWill and ownership. There were high-volume running backs in what I thought were better spots than a rivalry game vs Cincinnati, but people went with DWill BIG TIME anyway. Ok, fine. He’s going to likely be the highest owned RB on the slate again with another great matchup and his last week of being “the mang” in PIT. I wonder if that has the coaching staff giving him completely unbalanced volume in that they aren’t afraid to run the crap out of him knowing he gets rest once Le’Veon comes back? I can’t get in their heads, but 32 and 36 touches the first two weeks suggests he isn’t suddenly dropping to 18 this week vs PHI, who has been a very middle of the road defense in giving points to running backs over the past 2 seasons. PIVOT – CJ Anderson is your pivot here since David Johnson is rather chalky and in his own plus matchup this week. CJ isn’t on anyone’s radar in DFS. He is the workhorse back in DEN and being deployed both rushing and in the passing game to keep the heat off a new QB in Semien. The Bengals are not off to a good start this year vs RBs and weren’t good last year. They have a reputation as being some stout defense, and they kind of are, but their two year DVP vs RBs is 24 and 25. That puts CJ in a nice under-the-radar spot in GPPs.
Melvin Gordon – My how things have changed! People just last week were yelling “sell high in season long.” I was one of them. Gordon nabbed a couple TDs but wasn’t seeing the work in the red zone or when SD fell behind. He was more or less gameflow dependent………..until Danny Woodhead’s ACL decided to join Adrian Peterson’s knee on a plane ride to the offseason. Suddenly, Gordon is all San Diego has in a potential shootout where he caught 3 balls on 3 targets. High scoring games usually help running backs, too, and when priced like a committee back and getting a bellcow workload? Yeh….all signs point to Gordon being crazy chalky in a world that loves discounts. PIVOT – While Mark Ingram may make for a nice dollar-for-dollar pivot in another potential shooutout game, I’m going to keep you in the same game and bring up a name that honestly hurts my stomach to utter……..Frank Gore. I can’t hardly even write it up, but if you want to Star Trek this one and go where no man has gone before, he’s your guy. It’s not the worst play, either. Will I do it? Oh HELL nah!! But, if I had bigger balls I would. Gore caught a receiving TD last week. He might be as slow as Yadier Molina, but he should get some balanced work in that offense and might be just what the doctor ordered in a shootout. SD doesn’t have a great run D, either. They were ranked 26th last year and 29th so far this year in allowing points to RBs. Keep it in mind if you want to get so far off the herd you don’t want us to turn around and even bother looking for you.
Theo Riddick – This is kind of a toss up. Two similar backs are in very similar roles here. These are more DraftKings or FantasyDraft plays for me, but in full point PPR, they are definitely viable. With Abdullah going down, Riddick should step into a heavier load. Sure Dewayne Washington is lurking to vulture some workload, but it’s going to be Riddick’s ball first and most. He’s at a great price point. He’s a great potential RB2 for you and should be safe enough for cash with some upside this week, too. I don’t worry about his floor. I do worry about his TD upside, which is why I’m leaning heavily to using him in PPR sites, not FanDuel. This appears to be a week most players are talking about the unpredictable committees around the game and how they can’t predict usage safely even for the discount. Most are talking of paying up for RB. But, if you are paying down, Riddick is going to be on a lot of lineups employing the same strategy with you. He’s not sneaky; he’s kind of chalky. PIVOT – These backs are sort of one and the same when you look at Charles Sims, so I won’t go into detail on him other than to say he’ll be lower owned than Riddick, yet not exactly invisible himself. The names you gamble on down here are McKinnon in MIN, Whittaker in CAR, Michael in SEA, or perhaps Coleman in ATL. All pass catchers, most gaining a little workload due to injury. However, much more of a gamble because the are all still in committees. If you want the ultimate pivot play at RB this week, you go double low. With everyone spending up at RB and taking the value receivers, you get off everyone by going low in BOTH spots and going as high as you can at WR and TE. You can still find nice plays, some safe enough for cash in the example of Riddick/Sims. The others I mentions in the cheap backs are GPP only in my mind due to the uncertainty of their workloads still.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown – Best receiver, perhaps player, in the whole game. Yes, he’s chalk every week. Well, in terms of the fact everyone looks to play him. Maybe a little discount on ownership this week due to price tag and people paying up at RB. Why do I still call him chalk? Because he’ll never be “low owned” and if you go low on RB this week, who is the first WR you are reaching up for? Ummmm, right. It’s Antonio, and it’s not close. Highest floor and highest ceiling any given week in any given matchup. PIVOT – One pivot is obviously Julio Jones on Monday Night in The Big Easy in that 54 point Vegas total game. The other is O’Dell. Just as you threw up a little in your shoes, you should look to him again. You know his upside. You know he dropped what would be a sure TD for 40+ yards last week. And, you know if he catches that, we aren’t having this discussion. Everyone in the DFS community wants to give him the Nancy Kerrigan treatment the next time they catch him in a tunnel and will be running the other way as fast as Usain Bolt in Rio. Honestly, that means you should look to stack both Eli and OBJ in GPPs and laugh all the way to Rio yourself if it hits. What’s sadder……you know I’m right.
Jarvis Landry – Dudes, this is as chalky as it gets this week. Right up there with DWill. In cash, if DWill and Jarvis aren’t on your lineups, I’m going to tell you that you just don’t understand this game well. Jarvis is a target magnet set to explode on PPR sites. His floor is as high as anyone’s in this matchup with the Browns. Vegas likes him. He’s about all they have down there if Devante Parker proves at all inconsistent. If that happens, Jarvis will still be there running his 5 yd slants from the slot. I never advocate getting cute in cash, but if you must…..lock this dude in and get cute with the other two spots. If he scores and goes for 20+ points, you are hard-pressed to make up for that with Riddicks, and Beasleys. Espeically if your Antonios or David Johnsons fall flat. If Javis falls flat, you aren’t hurt one stinking bit. If he does well, the other cutesy cutesies get smoked like pork. I may not be all that articulate here, but I am struggling for words because I simply want to say KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid).
Travis Benjamin – This is actually quite similar to Jarvis in FanDuel pricing, but not DK or FD2. He’s not adjusted for on those. You can play him on those if you prefer utilizing the site discrepancy theory, but that’s just getting cute again. In my opinion, Javis and TBenj should both be in your lineups for cash games. TBenj isn’t as consistent, but he also offers more upside. Remember Cleveland last year? That dude went bonkers for 4 weeks. Should he do something like that in Indy this week, and you faded him? Good luck, Chuck. You are redepositing while I take your girlfriend out on YOUR money. The only way in cash I fade these two is in Survivor leagues where I have 5 lineups rolling. And, that’s just because I’m hoping to keep one entry alive if the unthinkable happens and both Jarvis and TBenj take a crap on my notebook.
PIVOTS – Let’s discuss the names we like in GPPs if fading these guys. Honestly, I think you can fade Jarvis in tourneys. But, I’m not sure you can TBenj on DK or FD2. So, with that disclaimer out of the way, lets look to Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin. Cobb is definitely the bigger risk because we haven’t seen squat from him. But, that just means no one else will play him either. They will concentrate on Jordy and leave Cobb for death. If you have a rather chalky lineup in a GPP (I wouldn’t even do this in a hybrid), you might consider Cobb coming to life. Back in 2014 with Jordy on the field, Cobb took 2 catches to the house against DET in the same game. It’s a long shot, but that’s what we are after in GPPs and would need to be stacked with Rodgers (perhaps even Jordy). Very risky, bordering stupid given the way he looks, but still a bit logical based on some history. I prefer Maclin, though. I think he factors into this game much better. NYJ is solid up front (currently top 10 in DVP vs RBs), and that should serve to squash Spencer Ware to a degree. While a lot of people will focus on Travis Kelce, you can take that money you had set aside for TBenj or Jarvis and drop it in Maclin’s drawer w/o messing up the lineup’s chalky core from everyone else. If you think you need a lot of crazy plays to win a GPP, you just don’t. If you ran quite chalky players in QB and RB1, WR1, TE, DST, and only differed with perhaps a CJ Anderson and Jeremy Maclin? You’ve literally just given yourself a great chance to take a GPP lineup really deep. Let’s not forget Maclin is the overwhelming #1 in KC. If they fall behind, they will be forcing the ball to him. Jeremy may have been underwhelming so far, but that only serves to take more players off him. He had 3 20+ point games last year, and had three games over 140 yds receiving. Add in he was targeted 10+ times in 6 games and 9 times in 2 others and you definitely have a WR1 upside at a bargain price. Vegas is predicting a rather close game and Revis may still have his reputation mostly in tact, but most of us agree he isn’t the scary corner he once was.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed – This is the guy everyone talks about first these days. But, not many people are rumored to be paying up for him with names like Tamme, Pitta, Jesse James, and even Trey Burton so cheap this week. Reed’s ownership will be low compared to normal, but he’s still a chalky pick in that he won’t be “low owned.” Being off to a somewhat blah start also suppresses his ownership as others freak out by saying they can’t ever time TEs in DFS. PIVOT – If there is one off a lower owned guy already, it’s Greg Olsen. I don’t need to sell you on him. By now, you know he has multi-TD upside and also gets vultured from a few by Cam when Cam wants to dab or pretend like Superman. Their ownership is likely very close to the same this week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Olsen was a little higher than Reed. Point is they are chalky, household names but will give you a definite ownership discount this week compared to usual.
Delanie Walker – Here’s a name I am hearing quite a bit. Many are on Mariota this week and Delanie is his preferred stacking partner most weeks. Tajae Sharpe is creeping in there, but Walker still holds most of Mariota’s love in the red zone. PIVOT – DeMarco Murray stacked with Mariota is your pivot here. Murray has nearly an even split in rushing and receiving yardage so far, much to the surprise of most. Murray has 0 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs on the year, and based on his 7 receptions and only 12 carries last week, that stat is no fluke. He makes a nice and somewhat contrarian stack with Mariota this week.
Jacob Tamme – I had to pick one between Tamme and Pitta. They are the same, though. Both are heavily targeted right now and while you may tell me that Pitta has a trust factor with Flacco, I can counter that by saying Tamme is in NO this week in a 54 point scheduled shootout against a defense that couldn’t guard a TE if he had to wear a fluorescent road construction jersey and waived his arms and screamed “over here” in a bullhorn as he ran his routes. Seriously, imagine that route for a second. I would be willing to bet even odds on Saints still forgetting about him. In this game opportunities speak louder than a bullhorn and these guys are getting them……for pretty cheap on PPR sites (the place you want to use them). Thing is, more people should be on them……but still aren’t yet. PIVOT – If you must, you can punt this position completely and drop to Jesse James or Trey Burton, but with the targets these guys are seeing, they also have a rather high floor and are in better games this week where they should factor in more often.
DEFENSES
Seattle – I list them as our high priced defense because we focus on big Vegas favorites at home. 11 points is big enough to be chalk. Only their price makes them a little less chalky, and the fact they have yet to create a turnover. But, should they pitch a shutout, quick math tells you that’s as good as 5 turnovers right there. PIVOT – Cheaper defenses. Not only does it get you down the scale a bit, it puts you in a different methodology in building your lineup that people using expensive defenses won’t have. This week, however, it might just land you on the chalk if you pick the Dolphins.
Miami – Once again, this won’t be groundbreaking news with the home favorite facing a bad QB while sleeping in their own beds waiting for their alarm clocks to go off to music instead of worrying about that annoying meep meep meeeeep noise the bastard in the hotel room before you picked. Miami is rushing the passer pretty well and generating turnovers, too. That, along with Vegas hating the Browns, gives them a floor making them the overwhelming choice in cash this week. PIVOT – Up to Carolina or Seattle instead of taking a road team. Those should be enough to get you away from enough of the herd. Defenses can win you a GPP, but rarely lose you one if you have a little floor or the chalk. So, don’t worry so much about ownership with defense as much as you worry about if they can give you a couple of TDs on their own.
Minnesota – The Vikings have been buzzing early this year, and are here only to serve as a brand name that people will overuse this weekend on those 2 defensive scores in week 1. There is no pivot here. Defense is just a spot to mention a little about who should be the chalk and who else is in a good spot. I’m using MIN to tell you they will be overplayed and they are not in a good spot in my opinion. Avoid.
Honorable Mentions – We can use, at lower ownership, other home defenses being favored. Tampa Bay, Dallas, and even Green Bay come to mind. Do you need them? No. Might they surprise and score well? Absolutely.
Wrap It Up
What else do I say? Ummmmmm. I’m out. I have a kid begging for lunch and lineups to build. The chalk play would be to help him make lunch. The contrarian pivot would be to build lineups until he screams louder.
But, you know me. I’m a chalk guy. HOOAH!