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Taco’s Fast 40 – DFS NASCAR – Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol

590_bristolnight

Track Breakdown

Bristol Motor Speedway is perhaps the most notable NASCAR circuit outside of Daytona.  It’s the smallest track at only .5 miles long, and its super high banked turns allow for fast paced nonstop action.  Due to the small size of this track there will be 5 big changes in strategy compared to your average race. 1.  There are 500 laps, so dominator points (lead laps and fast laps) are going to be HUGE this week.  It’s absolutely essential to find the guys who are going to lead 100+ laps as they will score big time.  Place differential matters a bit less because of this.  2.  Staying on the lead lap is going to be much harder than usual.  If you fall back more than 1 lap you’re going to have your upside severely limited, so you might want to avoid the scrub drivers in this race.  3. If you pit during a green flag you will go down a lap.    Pit strategy is always something to consider and this week even more so.  4.  Lead changes will happen a lot due to the leader constantly having to deal with lap traffic.  Even though Carl Edwards led over 200 laps off of the pole here last race, that doesn’t mean the pole sitter is guaranteed anything.  There were 17 lead changes last race!  5.  Cautions galore!  Last race there were a whopping 15 cautions, almost all from small wrecks of 3 cars or less.  Bristol is notorious for rough racing so be sure to limit your exposure to any 1 driver in GPP and expect many people to go down.

Fast 40

  • Kyle Busch $10,500 (3rd) The defending champ was the fastest in practice and leads the elite JGR squad.  His aggressive style has lead to many a wreck in his past visits here, but he has the highest dominator upside of anyone in the field.
  • Kevin Harvick $10,400 (24th) Harvick needs to be locked into all cash games because of his starting position, as he represents high place differential upside and an extremely safe floor.  He’s a lock for the top 10 barring any setbacks.
  • Brad Keselowski $10,200 (9th) Keselowski has dominated this year due to his contrarian pit strategy and his ability to keep his car clean.  He’s finished every race running since 2013 which is seriously impressive.
  • Joey Logano $10,1000 (10th) The defending Bristol winner will start next to his teammate Keselowski.  He has just as much dominator upside but he didn’t look the greatest in practice.
  • Jimmie Johnson $9,800 (16th) The 6 time champion has shown signs of regression this year, especially as of late.  He looked terrible in practice, but he could still do some damage.  He’s historically been great at small tracks.
  • Carl Edwards $9,700 (1st) Edwards starts on the pole at Bristol for the 2nd time this year.  Last time he led over 200 laps to the tune of 100 fantasy points.  He’s not in the elite form he was riding early on in the season, but in JGR equipment he has domination upside.
  • Denny Hamlin $9,500 (2nd) Hamlin set the track record for fastest time during the first round of qualification today.  It didn’t lead to a pole, but it’s still obvious he has a super fast car.  He didn’t have the fastest lap in either practice, but he led both practices in fastest 10 consecutive lap times.
  • Martin Truex Jr. $9,300 (12th) You would have never called Truex a dominator until this season, now he’s among the leaders in laps led.  He’s not an official JGR member but he’s an affiliate with their equipment who’s been really fast lately.  He had a good spring race running in the top 7 until he ran into some trouble.
  • Matt Kenseth $9,200 (4th) The cheapest of the JGR cars and just as dominant.  Them boys all qualified in the top 5 and even starting 5th Kenseth could lead as many laps as the rest of them.
  • Kurt Busch $9,000 (14th) Unlike his brother, Kurt has been a beacon of consistency all year long.  He’s stayed out of trouble and posted top 10 finish after top 10 finish.  He probably won’t win though.
  • Jeff Gordon $8,800 (11th) This is Gordon’s 4th straight week filling in for the injured Dale Jr.  He hasn’t looked too impressive since returning and he probably qualified too high to return much value.
  • Chase Elliott $8,600 (6th) Chase looked great here in the spring finishing 4th.  He’s in a bad spot however behind all 4 JGR cars and he just isn’t the kind of lap leader that will rack up dominator points.
  • Kyle Larson $8,500 (23rd) Larson got over a rough patch to start the season and has been dominating lately.  He’s starting in a great spot for place differential, but he’s risky given his super aggressive style.
  • Tony Stewart $8,300 (27th) Stewart has been excellent lately and finds himself in a great position to move up several spots.  His practice times were rather slow and so were his teammates so that may be worrisome.
  • Austin Dillon $8,100 (13th) Dillon really needs a win to get into the Chase so expect aggressive racing from him.  He qualified just a bit too high to be worth much since he lacks dominator upside.
  • Kasey Kahne $7,900 (19th) Kahne has looked incredibly average all season long and represents basically no upside outside of his win here in 2013.
  • Ryan Blaney $7,800 (4th) Blaney looked phenomenal in every practice and he raced really well here in the spring race.  The problem is he qualified 4th right behind most of team JGR.  Unfortunately there’s no place to go but backwards for him.
  • Jamie McMurray $7,600 (28th) McMurray has been quiet most of the year and he usually qualifies too high to be worth picking.  This week is different as he starts 28th at a track he’s been consistently good at in the past.  Safe cash game option.
  • Ryan Newman $7,400 (15th) Newman has a very consistent track record here as a guy who will finish just outside the top 10.  Unfortunately he qualified just a bit too high to get excited about.
  • A.J. Allmendinger $7,200 (8th) Allmendinger is better at short tracks but qualified way too high to be worth rostering here as he’s never finished higher than 13th at Bristol.
  • Greg Biffle $7,000 (34th) Biffle spun out early in the first qualifying session causing him to qualify much lower than usual.  This makes him an excellent value play and a lock for cash games.  He consistantly finishes in the top 15 here a Bristol.
  • Clint Bowyer $6,900 (31st) Bowyer is perhaps one of the best Bristol racers in the field despite never winning.  He’s finished in the top 17 in his last 9 races here including an 8th in the spring race.  He’s in bad equipment this year but that matters just a bit less at a small track like this and it clearly didn’t phase him in the spring race.  He’s riskier than Biffle but has more upside.
  • Paul Menard $6,800 (20th) Menard is another mid-tier driver with a strong track history at Bristol.  Starting 20th limits his upside but he should be a relatively safe option to stay on the lead lap and grind it out.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,700 (25th) Bristol may be Stenhouse’s best track.  He’s never finished worse than 21st and has 3 top 6 finishes in 7 tries.  He’s bound to move up and he tends to have low GPP ownership week to week.
  • Aric Almirola $6,600 (17th) Almirola looked incredibly fast in first practice but he regressed quite a bit in happy hour.  He qualified way too high to be worth anything this week.
  • Danica Patrick $6,400 (29th) Danica has been riding a bit of a heater- for her- as of late, but we should limit our expectations with crappy practice speeds and struggling teammates.
  • Trevor Bayne $6,200 (22nd) Bayne looked great when he finished 5th here in the spring race, and it’s been an impressive season for him overall in 2016.  He’s going to be aggressive trying to get points to stay in the Chase points standing.
  • Casey Mears $6,100 (21st) Mears actually looked alright in practice but let’s not get ahead of ourselves- when it’s not a road course, Casey Mears sucks and he’s starting 21st.
  • Chris Buescher $5,900 (12th) With Buescher’s fluke win at Pocono, Roush Fenway Racing (Front Row’s affiliate team) has decided to say ‘to hell with Biffle/Stenhouse/Bayne we’re going to put all our energy into Chris Buescher since he’s guaranteed a chase spot now.’  This led to a huge overqualification for him but with the equipment upgrade and his low price tag he can be an okay value play as long as he sticks around the top 20.
  • David Ragan $5,800 (37th) Ragan qualified a bit lower than usual, so if you were to throw darts at any of these back of the pack guys I’d go with him.
  • Landon Cassill $5,700 (32nd) Buescher’s Front Row teammate is clearly getting left to dry as the team focuses solely on the 34 car.  Normally I’d like Cassill as a scrub play but here he’s going to get lapped early and often.
  • Michael McDowell $5,500 (26th) McDowell qualified way too high to be useful at a track he’s never had success at.
  • Regan Smith $5,400 (33rd) Smith has done nothing recently to prove he has any value outside of his 3rd place finish at Pocono.  Like Buescher’s win, it was an absolute fluke due to a rainout during pit stops.
  • Brian Scott $5,200 (30th) Scott might make for a decent dart throw pick but I doubt he stays on the lead lap.
  • Matt DiBenedetto $5,100 (18th) DiBenedetto shocked the NASCAR world during the spring Bristol race when he finished 6th.  Since then he’s been one of NASCAR’s worst drivers and starting 18th he should be on nobody’s roster.  The field will pick him en masse though just because of his spring race result.
  • Cole Whitt $5,000 (35th) For a scrub, Whitt has been racing pretty well lately and he’s much better at these short tracks.  Still, he’ll get lapped inevitably and he’ll only return value if a bunch of guys ahead of him crash.
  • Reed Sorenson $4,900 (36th) He qualified 36th which is an overqualification for him.
  • Michael Annett $4,800 (39th) He is terrible.
  • Josh Wise $4,600 (40th) He is also terrible.
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt $4,500 (38th) His uncle Dale has a better chance of winning this race and he’s not even driving.

 

Cheat Sheet

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