Winning DFS: Let Expert Consensus Find Your Value
Perhaps one of the easiest ways to spot winning chalk plays is looking at the consensus of experts. If most of the guys digging deep into numbers say someone is in a good spot, he likely is. Of course, baseball is a bit random and that doesn’t mean a guy will perform. But, more times than not, he will over the course of a large sample of similar situations. I haven’t bothered to break down the averages or wOBAs of players, but I can promise you a hitter does better against soft pitching than elite pitching. Certainly, I don’t need to break that down with numbers to sell you on the concept. After all, you ARE reading my article……you are already smarter than most people. BAZINGA!
The consensus is just an average ranking of players across a lot of writers in the arena of DFS. Most writers will rank pitchers, catchers, outfielders, etc. They will offer loose projections based on the opposing matchup. For example, Nelson Cruz usually averages about 8-10 fantasy points per game across a season. This would be our baseline.
Now, tonight (hypothetically) he faces a crappy, left-handed pitcher in a hitter’s paradise….all the while he has been swinging a hot bat for a week with a couple home runs (again, hypothetically). Well, if that was the case, some writers might project him at 10 points. Some might project him at 14 points. Others might actually predict 18 or more. Take the overall average of all 100 writers and you might get a number like 14.50 points projected. Great. We know he’s in a good spot. Duh. But, how does that compare with other outfield sluggers like the hotter than my girlfriend Max Kepler? How does that compare to a great punt play like San Diego’s Janikowski?
Next, we take those average projections and rank them. From there, we look at how FanDuel (or DraftKings, if you play there) adjusted their salaries. Finally, we rank the salaries and determine who is mispriced for their matchup.
Examples Letting Experts Find Your Value
For instance, we mentioned Nelson Cruz is in a great spot…..4 points above his average according to 100 “experts.” His projected points total among outfielders ranks 3rd (please understand I’m making this up for example’s sake still). But, his salary is ranked 12th. This indicates a discrepancy we can likely exploit. The mismatch between pricing and projected ranking creates our value. Do you see that? If we looked at Peter Bourjos and saw his projection ranks 65th, but his salary is ranked 112th……we have quite a bit of implied value. Savvy players look for these discrepancies and determine if the value is highly possible or just a mirage. That takes experience. But, you can see why it’s important to look at these numbers.
However, it can backfire. Players can also become overpriced. Take our buddy Max Kepler again. Let’s say he’s projected about 23rd among other outfielders. But, let’s say his salary has jumped due to his hot streak all the way up to 3rd. That’s 20 spots of being overpriced. Well, should you avoid him? Not necessarily. This projection vs salary ranking only points out the fact he’s overpriced currently for tonight’s matchup. It in no way suggests he won’t stay hot and take a normally tough pitcher like Jose Quintana deep like what 7 times in the first inning alone? I mean that dude has been hot, right? Hopefully, you see the point around all my cheesy comments.
Like anything else, we play the odds here. We look at what the experts say and decipher what the salaries might be implying. If you get in the habit of looking for these abnormalities in pricing, I promise you will become a better DFS player. I mention all this because the NFL season is coming. We do similar things there. However, the projections the experts make are more accurate than in baseball. Hell, you can argue that baseball projections mean about as much to you as my writing. But, when used appropriately, I think they still hold value. NFL, however, is more reliable. Start comparing salaries and projections now, and get ahead of the curve for the NFL season.
Using the above rankings and valuations should quickly help you find value. You can immediately insert some of these players and create some winning lineups.