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The Geek’s Vegas Lines – Draftkings MMA Player Picks Analysis For UFC Rotterdam

 

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It’s time! This weekend we have a great card coming up highlighted by a mix of flyweight contenders and heavyweight veterans. As far as European cards go this one has a lot to like. In this column, I’m going to briefly break down the complete UFC Rotterdam Card from a Draftkings Fantasy MMA perspective. In case you haven’t tried Fantasy MMA, I suggest giving it a try. If you like MMA at all, having a stake in who wins or loses and how makes watching it so much more exciting.

You all know me as the Fantasy Football Geek and may be wondering why I’m writing about MMA. I’ve been playing Daily Fantasy MMA since Draftkings started offering it back in January of 2015. MMA has always been one of my favorite sports and my experience with it goes back to the first UFC Payperviews back in the early 90’s with names like Royce Gracie, Ken Shamrock and Tank Abbott. Watching UFC events with the rooting interest that DFS brings makes it so much more exciting.  This is my first ever MMA writeup. I’ve been talking MMA and leading our DFS Army Team MMA Slack channel for a while. If you like what you read here and want to see more MMA breakdowns in the future, let me know by tweeting this article out, sharing it on facebook or even better by registering for a new Draftkings account via the link below!

If you haven’t tried out Daily Fantasy MMA you can use this link to register for Draftkings. This will get you a deposit match as well as a free entry in a paid tournament. 

RESEARCH TOOLS

If you haven’t already done so, check out my column on Multi-Entry GPP Strategies and Reaching for the Nuts Lineup in MMA

I have a couple of go to pods I listen to each week for research purposes. Check these out if you have time:

Dan Levi’s Half the Battle 

Flyin Bryan Show

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES

Fighters in each event will accumulate points as follows:

Moves Scoring

  • Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
  • Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
  • Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
  • Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
  • Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

  • 1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
  • 2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
  • 3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
  • 4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
  • 5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
  • Decision Win (WBD+) : +25 PTS
  • Scoring Notes:
    • Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.
    • Advances include:
      • To Half Guard
      • To Side Control
      • To Mount
      • To Back Control

Player Lock Notes: All fighters lock at the time the first fight starts in an event

 

The Geek’s UFC Rotterdam Picks

Ulka Sasaki +130 $9100
Willie Gates -150  $9600
Over 1½ rounds -150 
Under 1½ rounds +130 
Fight goes to decision +165
Fight doesn’t go to decision -205

The first fight of the night pits Ulka Sasaki vs Willie “Whoop Ass” Gates. Sasaki was a late replacement for Paddy Houlihan in this one. The lines favor Gates a smidge and the “doesn’t go to a finish” prop is a solid -205.

The last two times we saw Sasaki fight he was getting his ass whipped by low-level UFC fighters, Talor Lapilus and Leandro Issa. Sasaki looked really bad. Now he is fighting on short notice and will need to pull off a massive weight cut as well. Ulka is primarily a submission grappler and doesn’t offer much as far as standup. Gates, on the other hand, is a solid striker with high energy and decent power. He doesn’t offer much when it comes to grappling and is vulnerable to submissions if taken down. One interesting thing to note is that while Gates and Sasaki are both 1-2 in the UFC, Gates has fought much tougher competition. In is last fight Gates lasted three rounds with top 5 contender Dustin Ortiz.

Conclusion: I really like Gates in this fight both in cash and GPP. The salary of $9600 for a favored fighter in a fight that has a high finish prop is like Vegas lines gold to me.

Kyoji Horiguchi -600 $10,700
Neil Seery +450  $8700
Over 2½ rounds -225 
Under 2½ rounds +185 
Fight goes to decision -185 
Fight doesn’t go to decision +155

I’m going to keep this one brief because this fight doesn’t have a ton of DFS appeal. Kyoji Horiguchi is the biggest favorite on the card. Seery is a very tough veteran and not easy to finish. The goes to decision prop is fairly high here at -185. The only appealing thing about this fight is the fact that a Kyoji Horiguchi win is a virtual lock. The negative is that without the finish, chances are the total points won’t justify the salary.

Conclusion: Kyoji wins by decision. Not a great play for DFS purposes, though.

 

Dominic Waters +225 $8500 
Leon Edwards -265 $10900
Over 1½ rounds -185
Under 1½ rounds +160
Fight goes to decision +110 +110
Fight doesn’t go to decision -150

Looking at the lines for this fight we see a decent shot for a finish inside the distance. Waters has two UFC fights under his belt, both of which were taken on short notice and both of which were losses. His path to victory here likely would involve grinding out Edwards for a 3 rounds points win. Rocky Edwards, on the other hand, is known as a striker with some KO power. I haven’t been super impressed by him as far as what I’ve seen on tape, however. He lost his last fight to a middling prospect in Usman.

Conclusion: I actually believe Edwards will have decently high ownership just based on the perception that Waters is garbage. I think Waters is a little better than what people think and Edwards is just a little worse. I’ll own some Edwards in my GPP lineups just in case he gets an early KO but I think the upset potential is real here and I will not touch Edwards in a cash lineup.

Reza Madadi +155 $9200
Yan Cabral -175 $10200
Over 2½ rounds -200 
Under 2½ rounds +170 
Fight goes to decision -170 
Fight doesn’t go to decision +140

I’m going to keep this one fairly brief. Both of these guys are BJJ submission specialists. Madadi is old and slow. Cabral is just meh. Vegas favors a decision one way or the other and I’d assume that even the victor will not pass 50 DK points because of the lack of strikes or potential scoring. Is there a chance that one of these guys pulls off an early sub? Sure there is. That said I think there’s a much greater chance that two submission specialists cancel each other out and the fight just winds up being boring and without much action.

Conclusion: Cabral wins by decision. Fade for DFS purposes.

Jon Tuck -145 $8600
Josh Emmett +125 $9700
Over 2½ rounds -170
Under 2½ rounds +140
Fight goes to decision -150 –
Fight doesn’t go to decision +110

This fight is the major misprice of this card. Originally Tuck was slated to fight Nick Hein. Tuck was a fairly heavy dog for that one. When Hein dropped out he was replaced by UFC newcomer and mildly hot prospect in Josh Emmett. I believe Emmett trains with Team Alpha Male which in itself is very interesting. Vegas has Tuck as a decent -145 favorite in a fight expected to go the distance. Realistically this fight has a lot of DFS appeal. First of all the ability to get a favored fighter at a rock bottom salary is very appealing. Using Tuck opens up a ton of possibilities as far as playing favorites across the board in your lineups. On the flipside, the mispriced fighters have been killing me for months. It seems like every slate has one of these and by Murphy’s Law, every time I play the misprice I get screwed.

Conclusion: Hedge and play both guys in GPP lineups. Avoid this fight in cash.

Francimar Barroso +175 $9300
Nikita Krylov -210 $10,100
Over 1½ rounds -125
Under 1½ rounds +105
Fight goes to decision +180
Fight doesn’t go to decision -240

I’ll keep this one simple. Krylov is a badass Ukranian finisher that has gotten better every time I’ve watched him fight. Barroso is a boring Brazillian grinder that doesn’t stand out in any area. Could he grind out Krylov? Sure. But I’m not betting my hard earned money on that possibility. Krylov is a better and younger fighter. He also happens to be undervalued based on the finish prop and vegas odds.

Conclusion: All In on Krylov

Heather Jo Clark +225 $8,200
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -265 $11,200
Over 2½ rounds -275
Under 2½ rounds +235
Fight goes to decision -250
Fight doesn’t go to decision +190

Pay close attention to the odds on these fights and how they compare to the fighter salaries. Draftkings has been releasing salaries earlier and earlier. Often times this causes discrepancies that can be exploited. Other times it creates situations to avoid. KK is another European fighter that the UFC is looking to prop up. This has all the makings of a showcase fight. HJC is the definition of mediocre. She’s older and as my friend Flyin Bryan said in his MMA podcast, she kissed her dad on the lips after her last fight which is just a bit creepy.

Conclusion: Karolina by Decision. This fight is an avoid for DFS purposes. KK is too expensive to pay for in a fight that Vegas sees as likely to go to decision.

Chris Wade +175 $9000
Rustam Khabilov -210 $10,400
Over 2½ rounds -235
Under 2½ rounds +195
Fight goes to decision -225
Fight doesn’t go to decision +175

This fight features two solid UFC prospects. Wade is 4-0 in the UFC so far and is know for his submission skills. Rustam started his UFC tenure hot with some 1st round KO’s but has since tailed off. He is 2-2 in his last four fights and couldn’t finish the perennially mediocre Stormin Norman Park in his last outing.  Vegas is expecting a decision here one way or the other. This fight is one of the tougher ones to call. Wade is a winner but he has only faced bottom tier talent in his UFC tenure. Rustam was once considered a hot prospect but his career trajectory has been on a downward path for a bit. The X-Factor here is Khabilov’s Dagestani background. Dagestani fighters are tough as nails and when in doubt I tend to go with them.

Conclusion: This fight is GPP only for me. Either guy could win. If Wade takes it, chances are it will be via a grinding decision. Rustam has the power to KO Wade if he gets his shit together. I’ll sprinkle some Rustam into my GPP entries with the hope of a low ownership percentage play but I’m keeping it to minimal exposure. I don’t hate Wade as a live dog pick here as well. The thing is there are more attractive plays at both salary levels so GPP only.

Garreth McLellan +250 $8800
Magnus Cedenblad -300 $10.600
Over 1½ rounds -160
Under 1½ rounds +140
Fight goes to decision +135
Fight doesn’t go to decision -165

I don’t know a ton about these two guys so I’m working mainly off the Vegas Lines and using some MMA math. Lets start with the names. Magnus is just a bad ass name. Garreth, not so much. That’s a plus for Magnus.

Looking at things that actually matter, Magnus’ last two UFC fights were victories vs Scott Ashkam and Jotko. Both of those guys have gone on to win a bunch of UFC fights. Those are legitimate wins for Magnus. MaLellan on the other hand, is 1-1 in the UFC with a recent 3rd round TKO vs Bubba (I’ve never heard of this guy) Bush. He also has a decision loss to to another fighter I’ve never heard of named Fabinsky.

Vegas has a decently high finish prop on this fight so it is definitely one to get some exposure to it. Magnus in particular is -115 to win inside the distance.  The one cause for concern is the fact that Magnus hasn’t fought in 18 months. One has to wonder what he’s been doing over all that time. I haven’t heard that it was injury related so I’m really not sure why he hasn’t fought in this long.

Conclusion: Magnus by 3rd rd KO. DFS: Heavily Favor Magnus here.  This feels like more of a GPP special then a cash play just because of the long layoff by Magnus. McLellan is strong and there is the possibility that he could grind out a points win if Cedenblad is rusty.

 

Anna Elmose +335 $9,400
Germaine De Randamie -420 $10,000
Over 2½ rounds -110
Under 2½ rounds -110
Fight goes to decision +110
Fight doesn’t go to decision -140

MISPRICE ALERT! Check out these numbers. GDR is a -420 favorite priced at $10,000. As a bonus, this fight has a decent ITD finish prop. Elmrose is a relative newcomer to MMA with just three fights to her name. This is her UFC debut. GDR is a kickboxer by trade and has an illustrious kickboxing career prior to getting in to MMA. She’s not much of a grappler however so she will want to keep this fight on the feet. On the other hand, Elmrose will do everything in her power to take down GDR and turn this in to a wrestling match. GDR is a MUCH taller fighter standing 5’9 vs Elmrose at 5’3. I expect GDR to keep her distance and KO an overmatched Elmrose.

Conclusion: GDR by 3rd round TKO. For DFS purposes: ALL IN on GDR.

Albert Tumenov -190 $10,500
Gunnar Nelson +165 $8,900
Over 1½ rounds -220
Under 1½ rounds +180
Fight goes to decision -105
Fight doesn’t go to decision -125
Fight starts round 2 -317
Fight won’t start round 2 +247

Both of these guys are good fighters. Gunni is a submission specialist while Tumenov is a well-rounded striker. Tumenov is favored for a reason. He is a prospect on the rise and potential title contender. Nelson, on the other hand, was a once shining prospect that has had some of the wind taken out of his sails recently. Gunni last faces Demian Maia and was grinded out in a decision loss. Maia is the best BJJ practitioner in the UFC and would have a title if given a shot at it. Losing to him is nothing to be ashamed of. It’s actually impressive that Gunni lasted three rounds. Tumenov, on the other hand, has been tearing through mid-level competition like a hot knife through butter recently.  Vegas sees this fight as fairly close with 50/50 odds of decision vs ITD. Realistically the path to victory for Gunni would be via submission. To get there he will need to take down Tumenov. The problem for Gunni is that he is a much smaller fighter and not an elite wrestler. I’m not sure how he gets this thing to the ground. On the feet I doubt Gunni will offer much resistance to the beastly standup of Tumenov.

Conclusion: Tumenov by 3rd round TKO. DFS Purposes: Favor Tumenov in cash and GPP. I’ll have very slight exposure (under 10%) to Gunni in GPP’s for the possibility that he sneaks a sub in there.

 

Antonio Silva +180 $9500
Stefan Struve -220 $9900
Over 1½ rounds +140
Under 1½ rounds -160
Fight goes to decision +350
Fight doesn’t go to decision -485
Fight starts round 2 -108
Fight won’t start round 2 -122
Fight starts round 3 +218
Fight won’t start round 3 -278

This fight is the co-main event of the slate. Check out the odds above. Basically, Vegas expects a finish here and I strongly agree. Struve is very underpriced based on his -220 line. Here’s what we need to know about these two guys. Struve is a talented giant of a fighter standing 7′ tall. He was looking like a potential Heavy Weight title challenger until a medical issue with his heart seemed to derail his career. His health issues have been resolved but mentally it seems like he hasn’t fully recovered. He has looked timid in some of his recent fights. The thing is he is young and this fight looks like a setup to showcase him and build him back up as a heavyweight contender. On the flip-side we have Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. Bigfoot was once a heavyweight beast but the combination of age and the UFC’s TRT ban have combined to derail his career. Silva has a form of Giantitus that medically requires TRT just to be normal. So basically he’s banned from using a medicine that is required for his condition. The lack of testosterone has been evident in his recent fights where he tends to get knocked out early and often.

Both of these fighters enter with big questionmarks. Is Struve past the mental issues regarding his heart condition? Is Silva as weakened from the lack of TRT as we think he is? These are big guys and this fight is close to a lock to end in a finish.

Conclusion: Struve by 1st rd KO. DFS Purposes: I will have virtually 100% exposure to this one simply because the finish prop is, as Donald Trump would say, “Yuge”. I’m heavily favoring Struve here in cash and GPP. I’ll also get some GPP exposure (under 20%) to Bigfoot.

Alistair Overeem -240 $10300
Andrei Arlovski +200 $9100
Over 1½ rounds +110
Under 1½ rounds -130
Fight goes to decision +500
Fight doesn’t go to decision -800

This fight, like the Silva, Struve fight, is a must play on this card. Just take a look at the finish props. Vegas sees a pretty good chance that this thing ends in the 1st round and they have it at -800 for an inside the distance finish. These guys are both heavyweight veterans and with fighters this size anything can happen. Both guys are well rounded strikers as well with a slight grappling nod going to Arlovski.

The career arcs of both of these fighters has been ebbing in opposite directions recently. Arlovski had been on a tear recently until he ran in to the wall that is Stipe Miocic. Miocic crushed Arlovski in a one round destruction back in January. Now just 4 months later it’s unclear how that beating will effect Arlovski. On the flipside, Overeem is coming off a 2nd round KO of Junior Dos Santos in his last outing and ,with a win, could be looking at a title elliminator in his next outing.

Both of these guys are dangerous strikers with plenty of KO power. Vegas thinks that one of them will be put to sleep here.  Since I’m confident of a KO I wanted to delve deeper in the props:

Overeem wins by TKO/KO -160
Arlovski wins by TKO/KO +240

Conclusion: Overeem by 2nd round KO. DFS Purposes: This is a fight I will have 100% exposure to in GPP contests. I’m leaning Overeem  70% to 30% for Arlovski. I could definitely see Andrei pulling off an upset here so I want exposure to both guys in a fight that is this likely to likely to end in a finish.

 

Thats it for my first ever “Geek’s Vegas Lines” MMA column. This is an unusual card in that the fighters are all incredibly affordable. It’s easy to come up with lineups filled with favored fighters with early finish potential. I fully expect the GPP nuts lineup to put up over 500 DK points this week so make sure you chose fighters with a shot to finish inside the distance this week. I’ll be posting my cash lineup in our DFS Army VIP slack forums ahead of the fights. If you aren’t currently a VIP member check out our monthly plan here. VIP’s get access to our insiders articles as well as our VIP Chat where we have DFS Pros covering all the major sports and even most of the minor ones. Good luck this week and I’ll see you all in the Draftkings lobby!