Last week, I went in depth exactly what I look for when targeting hitting in MLB DFS. It’s no rocket science that in order for you to win, your team has to have hitters that produce on the diamond. Well, in order to do this, we should spend most of our time not on researching hitters to target, but pitchers to target. Either against, or that we are going to roster on our teams. Sure, we could all roster Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner and feel extremely confident that we can have the beginnings of a great night. In baseball however, pitchers only are on the mound every 5th day. So what happens when they aren’t on the hill? What about opening day? When every teams number one starter is on the hill? There are things that we can look for that will let us know when we can target hitters against those type of starters that are top of the line.
Sure, some of my biggest wins last year came when I had Kershaw on my team. Kershaw has the ability to throw 7+ innings and get you close to 12 strikeouts. He also comes at a hefty price as well. Some of my biggest wins came when targeting pitchers like Chris Sale with the Minnesota Twins or the Cleveland Indians. There are some teams that match up well with these front of the line type pitchers and if your not sure what to look for, then sit back, grab your Cracker Jacks, and enjoy.
In my daily MLB routine, I spend more time on fantasy pitching than on the hitters. Why you may ask? Because honestly, when you are researching your pitchers, you are actually not only looking at their strengths, but their weaknesses as well. I look at stats like flyball percentage (FB%), Strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB), Strikeout percentage (K%), WHIP (Walk and hits per inning pitched), and BABIP (batted balls in play).
Some of these stats are pretty simple to understand. I look at flyball percentage because the more fly balls a pitcher allows, the more home runs he is likely to allow as well. If that same pitcher has a high strikeout to walk ratio, the chances are that there will be runners on base when he allows these home runs. You see, there is an old saying in baseball, the home runs aren’t what causes the pitcher to usually lose a game. Very rarely do you see a shut out by a team in today’s baseball. What hurts you even more are the walks. Pitchers that generally walk a lot of batters are throwing more pitches per inning, and generally not lasting deep into the game. As a DFS player, I want to target the pitchers that allow a lot of base runners, so I look for a high WHIP. WHIP is very easy to understand. Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched. Kershaw last year had a WHIP of 0.88. Basically this means he allowed less than one runner per inning he pitched last year. This was over 232.2 innings. There is no wonder he honestly is the best pitcher in baseball.
The first thing you should know about pitching and what is vitally important in MLB DFS is that you are looking for pitchers that are likely to get credit for the “win”. I personally HATE this statistic and how much emphasis the DFS sites put into it. In my opinion, it’s the most volatile statistic in all of sports. You NEED to know what a pitcher must do in order to qualify for the win, and how easily it can be taken away from you. If I sound a little salty when talking about this, I am. I have lost many tournaments because of this and missed out on a couple live finals because of a closer or defensive error that has cost my pitcher the “W”.
In order for a pitcher to get credit for the “W” three things must happen. The first, the pitcher himself has to throw at least 5 innings of the game. He must depart with the lead, and even if his team wins the game, if he is removed from the game and the bullpen gives up the lead at any point you can kiss his “W” goodbye. So let’s give you an example. I’m going to use the Rockies since they are near and dear to my heart. Let’s say that Jorge De La Rosa is throwing a masterful game. The Rockies have given him a 4-1 advantage going into the 8th inning and Walt Weiss pulls him. The bullpen comes in and allows 3 runs to tie the game, the Rockies put a run across in the 9th and eventually win the game. Does De La Rosa get credit for the Win? Nope. The bullpen lost the lead. Sorry…Your SOL.
Now, let’s say that Kershaw is throwing a gem and the game is 1-1 going into the bottom of the 8th with the Dodgers coming up to bat. He is replaced by a pinch hitter and L.A. scores in that inning to make the game 2-1 with the Dodgers taking the lead. The Dodgers closer comes in and finishes the game and the Dodgers win. Does Kershaw get credit for the Win? Yes. You see, there are situations where Kershaw can throw 8 2/3 innings and leave with the lead, the closer comes in allows a hit and and home run to tie the game and Kershaw gets no credit even if the Dodgers win in extra innings. There are a ton of different scenarios where you’re pitcher this year is in line to get the win and an error, or something is going to take that away from him. It’s going to happen.
What I like to do to offset this is target high strikeout pitchers. Four strikeouts equals the same amount that you get for the win. There is a whole strategy that you can put into choosing guys that you feel can help you on the mound in DFS. On FanDuel, you need one. You better not miss. On DK, you need two. Again, don’t miss. Beyond any other position in DFS other than maybe the Goalie in NHL, choosing your starting pitchers for the night are the most important positions that you will choose. Now do you see why I spend more time on them than hitters? They are generally easier to predict than hitters. Why? Your hitter might get the plate 5 times if you’re lucky, but more often than not it’s going to be around 4. Your pitcher, is getting a chance to get your team points every single inning they’re out on the bump.
One of the biggest things that we’ve learned in today’s game is that a pitchers ERA (Earned Run Average) isn’t necessarily a reflection of that pitchers talent. It does still hold value, but also shows whether or not a teams defense is actually helping the pitcher out in any way. Enter now two telling stats for pitchers that allow you to find out a pitchers “True Talent” stats in SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching).
SIERA is the easiest one to understand and attempts to answer this question: What is the underlying skill level of the pitcher? It not only takes into account balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful than others. It tells us three things basically, Strikeouts are good (duh), walks are bad (really?), and balls in play are complicated.
I am in no way a statistical engineer or anyone close to telling you exactly how to formulate the numbers. I can tell you that SIERA is more of a predictor of future ERA than any other pitching statistic out there.
xFip is another great stat because it removes some of the randomness that goes along with pitching. Besides SIERA, it has one of the highest correlations with a pitchers ERA than any other stat out there. This is important for us in DFS because we are trying to predict what will happen on a given day. By comparing a pitchers xFIP and SIERA to their ERA, we can predict if a pitcher and their team are performing to their “true talent” and if they are due for regression or are in a slump and therefore available at a discounted price.
What I will do, is take a pitchers xFIP and SIERA and average them out, and subtract a pitchers ERA from that number. The allows us to see exactly HOW much of a difference in either direction we can expect.
Of course, this can be used many different ways. What we should do every day is take this and look at the big picture. By analyzing and spending more time on breaking down fantasy pitching not only with there talent, but also their stats based on Home vs. Road splits and handedness, we can figure out exactly when to target the teams that match up well against pitchers like Chris Sale and Cory Kluber.
Later this week, I will go over with you on how I put everything together and how to build great tournament and cash game lineups. Baseball I feel you have to look at in a different perspective than any other DFS sport. I will show you how to become profitable through the season.