THE NATIONAL ANTHEM AND FLYOVER: As promised last week, I’m not Kevin. He’s in Cabo soaking up some tequila and swimming with dolphins, I suppose. No offense to Kevin, but I’d rather stay here and watch some NFL and drink good old beer made in the USA than pretend I enjoy swimming with the wildlife. Either way, my name is Chip, and I go by the name ChoppoDong in the DFS Army. While Kevin is away, we get to trash the place (don’t tell the Commander in ChiefST).
Why am I here? I have been lucky enough to get to know Kevin (aka The FFootballGeek) on a more interactive level…..we all have. Last year, he was just a dude with a blog that would sometimes answer his comments. This year, he has built a great community and expanded his website to include a forum for members. We call ourselves the DFS Army because we pretty much behave like a unit. We read the same ideas. We banter them back and forth. We lose and whine together. We win and celebrate together…..most notably when sweating a Sunday or Monday night game in the live chat room. I can’t describe the fun I’ve had this year because of investing in the VIP Package. The DFS Army is a community unlike any you will find anywhere in the industry right now…..and it’s growing. I joined after week one when there were only a few dozen of us chatting game theory. The Army has now grown to almost 900 members, and it’s only halfway through the season! It is unbelievably unique and beyond invaluable to most of us inside the VIP Tent.
My experience as a DFS player has grown exponentially this NFL season primarily because of this interaction with the group, Kevin, and the chat. If you are relatively new, you won’t believe me until you just jump in. Then, you’ll thank me. I promise.
Like the NFL, you get commercials! A quick word from Kevin:
Get a FREE Vip Membership To the DFS Army Plus Other Great Stuff!
One cool thing about running a decent sized group of hardcore DFS players is that I can ask for and actually get cool incentives from the big DFS sites for our new members. I’m also doing my best to get you our VIP DFS Army membership for free! How? Read on…
Pre-Game
PRE-GAME: Every great game begins with a wrap-up of the previous games, so let’s quickly discuss Week 9’s Greatest Hits.
Many of you undoubtedly feel like you missed out on what looked to be a great week for The DFS Army. I’ve had those weeks, too. It sucks to watch everyone else win while you barely kept your investment in tact. It’s bittersweet to root for those that did well (you are actually really happy for them) while licking your own wounds. Believe me, they all have your week when you have theirs, too. This game may be skill to pick the right players, but it’s also still a lot of luck in which ones go bonkers when you have them in the same LU. I compare it to a pro golfer and a weekend hack trying to make a putt from 50 feet. While both will make one from time to time and the skill to make one is largely the same, the pro will get it close much more often than the hack. This increases his chances dramatically of one going in. In DFS, the skill is getting close. The luck is producing the top flight LU. Keep that analogy in your mind and you will sleep much better on Monday nights.
Some members of our Army had outstanding weeks. Look at some of these scores!
1…Perhaps one of the best LU results I saw was from Army member @freeannyong. Freeannyong has been a member since the beginning of the season, but this was by far the best week of their DFS career.
2… Forum regular and moderator @tex0322 opened a can of whoop-ass on FD this weekend. Turning $3 into $125 is never a bad thing!
3… @mickeypowell5 of the Army posted 3 LUs all in the top 65 of a 1500+ man GPP this week on DraftPot. Great showing! I only wish I could find the snapshot of the LU….it was beastly.
4… Another Army member @mattyshyster shot me this via private message last night. This is fairly representative of the way a lot of us play GPPs. Notice all the blue entries and their places in the grand scheme of things at the top of the image. It only takes a couple LUs with the right mix to pay all that off. These are lessons we learn in The Army. Strategy like this doesn’t come from many places around the web. If you want to take your game to the next level, like many of these players did, read on to find out how….
All in Calls!
A couple of the “all-in” calls worked well, per usual. DeAngelo Williams had two TDs before halftime, and just kept running and running on an Oakland defense touted as “tougher than you think.” Yeh, right…not last week! If you are part of the Army, you got word of this all-in call from Kevin. You also heard him emphatically announce the more the industry doubts DWill and cautions the matchup with OAK, the more he wanted a piece of DWill. That was a gutsy call, and it worked for those that rostered him.
Another all-in call was Michael Crabtree. BANG! Another bullseye, especially in PPR formats where Kevin told you to utilize him most. Rostering these two together created enough of a floor for you to win many of your Head-to-Head or 50/50 contests and set you up for higher places in tourneys if your other players just avoided injury and had their “normal” days based on their averages.
I will also mention that Kevin came in midweek and told us his most used TE might be Delanie Walker. Others might be playable, but he kept going to Delanie in his LUs. Another nice advantage created by a lightly-used TE around the industry that went boom in the middle of your Sunday!
I probably don’t need to mention Jeremy Langford to you, as he’s fresh in your memory. But, he was another all-in from Kevin after Matt Forte was ruled out. You might think that one was obvious, but for a Monday Night Football game, he was very lightly owned across the industry giving you a nice Monday Hammer to drop on players that thought they had their weeks sewn up. Many players not using him went backwards as they watched the game unfold a couple nights ago. Don’t miss these calls anymore!
Now, another quick word from Kevin:
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Opening Drive
And now, another word from our sponsor, Kevin…
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FIRST DOWN!
Thursday 730p…..BUF @ NYJ……NYJ -3 ……over/under 43
Caveat to Thursday: It’s now a known strategy to avoid (or “fade”) the Thursday players but include the game itself in our slate of games we are playing. Use this game according to the strategy you choose to utilize. When used appropriately, it can give us a nice edge over our competition.
Tyrod Taylor($7200FD/$5500DK) isn’t a high volume passer, as he’s only thrown 30+ attempts twice this season. His legs are what keep him DFS relevant and NYJ isn’t easy on QBs. Nowhere near the ceiling of a Cam Newton, it is noteworthy that T-mobile has brought full 2X value on FanDuel this season in every game so far; his floor is pretty locked in at 15pts. The BUF RBs had nice games last week, but I don’t like committees especially when facing a top 10 DvP against RBs. I’m fading both.
Sammy Watkins ($6900FD/$5000DK) will likely get the Revis Treatment this week as BUF’s WR1, but he has serious talent. He feels a bit like point-chasing coming off last week so it’s wise to note he has caught 6 or more balls only twice this season, has been largely unhealthy, and is in an offense he has complained about not using him enough….to no avail. Studs in tough matchups are a great way to be contrarian, but I just don’t see this being worth your roster spot in any format. Robert Woods ($4900FD/$3600) was a disaster in a great spot (he didn’t even hit the stat sheet with receivers). And, Charles Clay ($5400FD/$4100DK) grabbed one ball for 6 yds. I don’t know that I’m going back to the well on any of these guys until I see proof they are going to be used……this is not that week.
Caveat: I know Shady says he is going to start, but he’s on a short week and if he goes the other way this backfield goes from a no-start to a pretty standard call on Karlos Williams ($6100FD/$3800DK) at this crazy DK price for a heavy workload back.
BUF proved again last week they can be thrown on with Tannehill torching them for 300+. All MIA receivers brought some value though none got in the endzone. I expect that to change this week. These Jets are tossing it pretty consistently this season. While he can be FitzTragic, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7200FD/$5100DK) played well last week on that bum thumb and is certainly not the worst play for the price. While a bit more boom/bust than Tyrod, Fitzy is likely in line for the better game with the defense behind him and better complimentary pieces offensively. Kevin mentions a key building block to roster construction is a RB at home and favored to win the game. Enter Chris Ivory ($7000FD/$5900DK). Did you realize only Devonta Freeman has more RB TDs than Ivory in all of the NFL? BUF may not surrender a lot of yardage to RBs, but Ivory is probably getting the rock on the goal line with a QB that doesn’t do a lot of running it in and a severe void at the TE spot. Fitz has some neat little toys to throw to this year, as well. Brandon Marshall ($7900FD/$7400DK) is having a nice year, and Eric Decker ($6800FD/$5300DK) is manning the slot (a place Jarvis Landry just took for 11/70/0….that’s still 18 DK pts). The Jets use Decker in a little different way, but 5/65/1 with some upside isn’t unrealistic at all vs a team with a burnable slot cover man.
BUF @ NYJ Playables: Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams (bold if Shady sits), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker
Man, what’s up with all these commercials? It’s like I’m actually watching a game! Kevin says…
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SECOND DOWN!
Before the games, these are the teams on bye this week: ATL, IND, SD, SF
Sunday 1pm…..JAX @ BAL…..BAL -6…..o/u 48.5
We all know by now BAL can be thrown on. This looks to be a nice game to fire up some Blake Bortles ($7800FD/$5600DK) and Company. Bortles had a nice game vs NYJ posting a 24 for 40 with 381/2 line. He may be prone to some picks, but still pretty much straight slingin’ it. 3 of his last 4 games have been over 25 fantasy points! And he’s another QB priced in the not-t00-pricey range with a plus matchup. Gameflow favors him more, too, as he’s the underdog and should be playing a bit of catchup ball late. Not a good matchup, however, for the JAX flukey rookie RB TJ Yeldon ($6500FD/$4800DK). Seems we’ve been waiting all season for this guy to get going and have only seen it once or twice. Being the underdog doesn’t help him much here. Our “twinning Allens” Allen Robinson($7500FD/$6700DK) and Allen Hurns($7300FD/$5800DK) should be in nice spots. Look closely at the difference in salaries posted. FD has it right…..they are honestly about the same player at this point. ARob posts a 40/707/6 line while AHurn posts 36/635/6. I don’t know about you, but I’m flipping a coin on FD and taking Hurns on DK due to the price gap if I decide to play them. They also make nice stacking options with Bortles in a game carrying a decent total score of 48.5 pts.
The Ravens, on the other hand are just a mess. Joe Flacco ($7500FD/$5500DK) hasn’t made much noise, Justin Forsett ($7100FD/$6000DK) continues to aggravate you when you decide to put him in a LU, the receivers are led by Kamar Aiken($5400FD/$4500) whom I refuse to get excited about, and TE luckbox Crockett Gillmore($5000FD/$2800DK) has all but vanished from the planet after posting a couple good weeks early on. He has posted DK point totals of 8.8, 10.3, and 6.0 since coming back from injury. How Vegas thinks BAL will win this by 6 and score 27 pts is probably why I don’t work there as an odds-maker. I just don’t see it. However, if it does happen……you can bet Forsett will be part of it and should get the volume throughout the game. I just look at his volume of touches the past 4 weeks of 17, 12, 17, 21 and thank God he doesn’t have a committee to deal with. It might be his only saving grace. It pains me to think Forsett could be playable, but Vegas is telling me he is. Compare Joe FlaccOhMyGodHesBoring to his similar price points at QB (Tyrod, Fitz, Bortles) and I think you will quickly see Flacco is likely at the bottom of that list.
JAX @ BAL Playables: Bortles, Robinson, Hurns, Forsett
Sunday 1pm…..CLE @ PIT…..PIT -4.5…..o/u 41
This one is interesting. As of this writing, we need to keep watch for both Cleveland QBs. Josh McCown ($6300FD/$5000DK) is supposed to be ready for Week 10, but there’s no word yet that he will replace Johnny Manziel ($6100FD/$5000DK). They are honestly both worth dart-throws (200yds and a TD pass is 12pts) in possibly both formats with rock-bottom prices; although I’m certainly watching for McCown to grab the reigns. When playing a full game, McCown has only missed 15pts once and has a ceiling over 30. Manziel, not so much, but he did engineer a pretty 90+yd drive last week when they allowed him to scramble and make plays. I shouldn’t need to say more than PIT is currently the #4 DvP against RBs this season……just avoid. I can’t say their receivers excite me, either. Travis Benjamin ($5700FD/$5200DK) was deep threat playable, but his last three weeks he has failed to score double-digit points rendering him fantasy useless now. Only guy I’m looking at is Gary Barnidge ($6100FD/$4800DK). If McCown plays, he deserves TE1 consideration on the week as PIT is pretty bad vs the position (ranked #25). McCown looks his way everywhere at anytime.
We take another massive hit with Big Ben going down…..or do we? Landry Jones ($6200FD/$5300DK) didn’t impress me much the first time around, and CLE is ranked 24th in pts allowed to QBs. Big old meh from me. Why? Because we know how to exploit CLE…..on the ground. DeAngelo Williams ($7600FD/$6500DK) should get the work, especially coming off that huge week 9. We all see it; he’ll be one of the top plays again this week. Just do it. He’s still cheap enough on both sites, especially for this cushy matchup. I would be much higher on Antonio Brown ($8700FD/$8800DK) if I felt Jones could get him the ball, but we saw no proof of that from either him or Vick. And, at this price? Hellz nah! Martavis Bryant ($6500FD/$5500DK) is intriguing, but best left for deep GPPs at this point. Shockingly, the Steel Curtain DST is almost fantasy relevant by averaging nearly 8pts/game through week 9. They are at home, they are outdoors, they have a low o/u total, and they are favored. If Manziel gets the call, I’m tempted to roster them in a GPP. They should be low owned based on the first impression this season of “they lost everyone and will suck.” This is actually quite the feather in Mike Tomlin’s cap. Dude can coach a defense up.
CLE @ PIT Playables: McCown, Barnidge, DWilliams, Martavis?, PIT DST???
Sunday 1pm…..CAR @ TEN…..CAR -4.5…..o/u 42.5
What do we say about Cam Newton ($8200FD/$7000DK)? Is he actually having an MVP type year? Where would this team be without him? While I may not be a huge fan of the game or total, there might be some fantasy goodness in Cam. His floor is nice; he proved his ceiling last week. My eyes immediately go to that DK price. Since the bye, he’s had point totals of 35, 20, 17, and 22. That brings value, with some upside. TEN is allowing points to QBs, but more importantly they are bottom 10 when it comes to rushing QBs. That screams CAM! Jonathan Stewart ($6600FD/$4300DK) was ok for three weeks, but failed to produce last week. TEN (#3 DvP) holds the run well, too. Every week someone asks about Teddy Ginn Jr. ($5100FD/$3400DK). Let’s get this straight right here….he sucks, he sucks, he sucks. He has 21 receptions, 360 yds, and 3 TDs on the year….all in about 4 games. He is just as likely go to 1/20/0 as he is 5/59/1. If you can tell me which week that will be, please pick me up a PowerBall ticket next time you’re scratching lottery tickets. I might even buy. Greg Olsen ($6300FD/$6300DK) is the only pass catcher worth rostering here. TEN is #24 v TEs, so it may be a week for Greg, but you’ll pay baby Gronk prices for it. One thing about pricing on FD and DK, when I notice the same price on both sites, the bargain is actually on FD by about 9% of your cap space (60k cap vs 50k cap and same price). If I roster Greg, it will most likely be on FD this week. Newton/Olsen stacks are almost always in play.
Same can be said of TEN in that about the only relevant fantasy players are QB Marcus Mariota ($7300FD/$5300DK) and TE Delanie Walker ($5900FD/$4700DK) who just blew it up last week. Now, I think we know CAR is a tougher defense to face than the Saints were. CAR might not be great vs TEs (#20) but they are pretty good against QBs (#10). Mariota has a nice ceiling, but he has a dangerous floor. I’d put him in GPP LUs only if I were you. I wouldn’t touch anything else on this roster at all. I know some of you want me to give Dorial Green-Beckham some kind of shout out. I can’t do it. I’m not even going to provide his salary to you. He’s more boom/bust than Martavis Bryant and Teddy Ginn combined.
CAR @ TEN Playables: Cam, Olsen
Sunday 1pm…..CHI @ STL…..STL -8…..o/u 42.5
Jay Cutler ($7000FD/$5100DK) had a solid outing against a team previously thought of as tough to throw on. Past few weeks have revealed two things: 1- SD can be thrown on. 2- STL is no joke. This is a different matchup as he tackles the #3 team vs QBs and the #4 team vs WRs. Even Jeremy Langford ($6200FD/$4800DK) will likely struggle vs the #8 defense in terms of points allowed to RBs. Gamble if you must with prices not changing, but I’m staying away from all but Alshon Jeffrey ($7600FD/$7100DK) who can be matchup-proof as the target monster and playmaker when he is healthy. If STL has a weak spot, it’s against the TE where they rank only #10. Martellus Bennett ($5400FD/$4700DK) isn’t in a great spot, either. As a rule, we try and avoid matching up against any DvP in the top 10……STL has them all this year.
It’s brutal to have such a solid defense and nothing to go with it on offense. Well, all but the emergence of Todd Gurley ($9200FD/$7300DK). All he has done is set the world on fire with the best 4 game start to a season by a rookie EVER. He is an RB that will pound you for 1, 3, 3, -2, 6, 3, -1, 85 and a score when it comes to yardage. He’s frustrating to watch, but he seems to come out ok in the end. #OldSchool! CHI happens to rank 12th against RBs, so roster with care. At his price now, even though he appears fairly matchup-proof, I consider him very matchup-dependent with other options out there. I’m not going to say anything else about anyone else. STL signed Wes Welker this week. That should tell you all you need to know about their desperation when it comes to Nick Foles or any other WR, including Tavon Austin. Wes should be forced to pass protocol before even getting off a plane these days. Loved him, but dude gone crazy coming back to the game!
CHI @ STL Playables: Alshon (GPP), Gurley, STL D
Sunday 1pm…..DAL @ TB…..TB -1.5…..o/u 43
Yes, America’s Team (puuuuke) blew up last week with Matt Cassel ($6300FD/$5000DK), Darren McFadden ($7000FD/$4900DK), and even Cole Beasley ($5600FD/$3000DK) having great games for a change. Dez Bryant ($8100FD/$7800DK) doesn’t really surprise us other than to say, “Matt Cassel was throwing to Dez?” Do a couple of those prices look cheaper than you expected? They should; they didn’t move because the game was played Sunday Night. If you want permission to chase points, you aren’t getting it here. The Cassel/Beasley stack saw it’s one and only chance to win you money. Don’t relive it’s glory days…..they are beyond over already. TB isn’t ranked in the top half vs any position, so they aren’t to be feared. In fact, they aren’t good vs QB (#30) or TE (#26). I wouldn’t go trusting Jason Witten ($5600FD/$5100DK) yet. He’s old and breaking down….and not being used like Romo would use him. Cassel is puntable on DK, I suppose. DMC’s price is climbing, and if you notice how quickly it shot up that should be a tip that he’s pretty legit as FD is very aggressive this year in spiking prices on known commodities (see Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley, and even Dez). DK tends to lag behind.
Jameis Winston ($6800FD/$5000DK) simply seems to find ways to hit his value each week. But, I don’t know that you can trust him against a defense allowing the 6th fewest points to QBs in DAL. He has failed to score 15pts just once, but also hasn’t scored over 20pts but once. You could do worse. I just think there might be some better matchups this week on FD. On DK, I’m inclined to roll him out again. Doug Martin ($6700FD/$5600DK) has had some good weeks, and Dallas lets you run….and run….and run. At home, and favored, this game sets up fairly well for Doin’ the Dougie. But, his two clunkers in back to back weeks will make me take pause on how much I play him across my LUs. Mike Evans ($7700FD/$6800DK) is not as intriguing as last week may have led you to believe. Again, Dem Boyz don’t allow much to WRs (#5 in DvP). I’m inclined to look elsewhere unless I feel some kind of Winston/Evans stack coming for a bit of contrarianism. The sleeper could be whether or not Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5300FD/$2800DK) plays. If so, he could be your huckleberry. The Cowboys are pretty good against TE (#11), but I don’t put a ton of stock in TE DvP since many teams just don’t have one they use. At near minimum prices, combined with being a rookie QB’s security blanket earlier this year, it’s going to be very hard not to roster some ASJ at this discount if he is back (which early indicators are that he should be).
DAL @ TB Playables: Cassel, DMC, Dez, Winston, Dougie, ASJ
Sunday 1pm…..DET @ GB…..GB -11.5…..o/u 48
Huge road dogs, I expect the Detroit Lions to be airing things out in a big way, and there may even be some garbage time to go around. No, I’m not giving them a lot of credit here for staying in this one. GB is coming off a tough three week slate, of which the final couple games were on the road. They should be excited to be back in Lambeau. Matthew Stafford ($6900FD/$5400DK) is on record now as saying he never really bought into the former system. That may play a little, and we know he can sling it, but it may also take a week or so for a system to emerge he buys into. At this price, though, he may very well be worth a shot. I imagine that Calvin Johnson ($8000FD/$7500DK) is very much in play, if it gets to garbage time. Megatron got off to a slower start, had a couple good weeks, and now gets to look at a GB secondary that has gotten torched of late. When healthy, Eric Ebron ($5300FD/$3300DK) can be a sneaky dual-format play for cheap. GB is not good vs TE (#25). Use with caution, however, because he’s had poor showings in 2 of his last 3. But, take out those 2 bad weeks and he has scored under 15 DK pts just once when he still brought value with 10. I don’t trust any RB here other than Theo Riddick ($5300FD/$3300DK) in full point PPR leagues. Dude might bring the volume being integrated more in the normal downs and having dominated the passing down touches in a game predicted to be an absolute drubbing. Just understand one thing from this side of the game, while playable, a lot of these players are going to disappoint. I’d hedge by using the cheaper ones in my LUs.
Aaron Rodgers ($9200FD/$7500DK) is coming off a good week. That’s too bad because I was looking for him to have another bad outing down in Carolina and come home with a supressed price. Doesn’t look like that will happen, but he should still feast against a horrible Lions defense in all regards. There may be another changing of the guard in the GB RB committee, but I just don’t know which one I’d pick at this point unless Eddie Lacy ($6000FD/$5500DK) is injured. He hasn’t looked good, but this one is going to have a hammer drop if they realize that 10+ point lead. It may come down to James Starks ($6000FD/$4900DK) to get those touches. Until more research develops, your guess is as good as mine. It looks like the WRs are back in play, too, as Randall Cobb ($7700FD/$6700DK) had a nice week, James Jones ($5700FD/$5300DK) is likely in play at home but has cooled off a bit, and Devante Adams ($5800FD/$4200DK) finally showed up with a nice haul of targets vs Josh Norman of all people. I’d fire up quite a few Packers in all formats this weekend. Even Richard Rodgers ($5400FD/$3000DK) has put up some decent numbers of late (3 of his past 5 games have gone over 10 DK points). He’s a nice play in games we feel will get into the red zone frequently. This one fits the bill as GB carries a chunky offensive total of almost 30. That’s over 4 TDs to go around! Even at his lofty price point, Rodgers may be my top cash play at QB this week. And, of course, the GB DST is in play vs what we know can be an awful Stafford should that one decide to show up.
Injury news: The Eddie Lacy report is of a groin injury. Groin injuries don’t heal quickly and obviously affect lateral movement. It would be wise to watch this closely. Looking at Starks’ price tag, he becomes HEAVILY playable should Lacy be ruled out.
DET @ GB Playables: Stafford, Megatron, Ebron, Riddick, Rodgers, Starks (bold if Lacy sits), Cobb, Jones, Adams, Rodgers, GB D
Sunday 1pm…..MIA @ PHI…..PHI -6.5…..o/u 47
Ryan Tannehill ($7100FD/$5300DK) is interesting. He seems ok in softer matchups, and definitely struggles in tougher ones. His last 5 weeks DK scores are: 16 (@BUF), 12 (@NE), 27 (HOU), 18 (@TEN), 14 (NYJ). He faces a Philly team, though ranked 13th v QBs, 6th v RBs, and 29th v WRs. Being that they are projected to be coming from behind in this one, I might be inclined to look a little deeper at him, especially on DK. I have my eyes off Lamar Miller ($7200FD/$5400DK) despite last week and on Jarvis Landry ($7000FD/$6700DK) and Rishard Matthews ($6000FD/$4700DK). MIA TEs have proven themselves darned near useless for DFS purposes this season. Rishard finally was held without a TD last week, so he may get back on track. Jarvis Landry is a ppr staple with the targets he hogs up. Jarvis is also a nice double-dip on DK since he returns punts. Philly has proven they can be thrown on (didn’t they just allow 2 TDs to Cole Freakin Beasley?), so I’d be firing me up some Phin WRs.
While I don’t trust Sam Bradford ($7300FD/$5700DK) or Jordan Matthews ($6600FD/$6200DK) much anymore, it does appear they have middling matchups. The way to attack the Dolphins, however, has been on the ground this year. This leads to a better game, especially given gameflow, for DeMarco Murray ($7700FD/$6200DK). Here we go again with a RB favored at home….a building block to roster construction. DeMarco was finally used correctly and one can only hope this continues from Chip Kelly. When DeMarco factors into the passing game, his floor shoots up nicely. I would only caution your expectations regarding using him until we see a little more, especially for Kelly’s known fondness for Ryan Matthews. This may be the week we see it, though. Tannehill is prone to toss picks, this looks like a decent spot to look at PHI D, as well.
MIA @ PHI Playables: Tannehill, Jarvis, Rishard, DeMarco, PHI D
Sunday 1pm…..NO @ WAS…..NO -1…..o/u 50.5!
We’ve seen some shootouts the past couple weeks. What makes for a shootout on paper? A close game with bad defenses and a high over/under. This one sort of qualifies. We know NO can’t defend. We know WAS was overrated. Both are bottom 10 teams in DvP vs QBs, RBs, and WRs. That kind of screams shootout and fantasy goodness.
Drew Brees ($8600FD/$7400DK) has sort of surged back with a couple of nice games. He’s been getting his weapons into the endzone, too, which was the only thing holding him back from some hefty usage by the DFS community. He’s playable. With the public commitment to the run in The Big Easy this year, we’ve had some nice runs with Mark Ingram ($7500FD/$6400DK). He will go lower owned due to the past two weeks, but he’s a workhorse and is missing his vulture in Khiry Robinson. It’s only a matter of time before he posts another nice game. CJ Spiller only touched the rock 6 times last week. He’s fallen into complete irrelevance. Brandon Cooks ($7200FD/$6000DK) is looking like the primary target again, but don’t sleep on Willie Snead ($6500FD/$4900DK). If the Skins have a strength now, it appears they defend the TE well. Although Ben Watson ($5500FD/$4300DK) is Brees’ favorite red zone target right now, we may want to tap the brakes on using him everywhere this week.
Kirk Cousins ($6500FD/$5200DK) has been ok once in awhile, and I really want to say fire him up. I just can’t. I won’t sue you for using him in GPPs and whatnot, but the guy has just been bad most weeks. His floor is in the single digits (he’s done this multiple times this season) and he has scored over 20 just twice. The RB committee is beyond stupid. Just skip them. There is relevance using DeSean Jackson ($6000FD/$5400DK) and Pierre Garcon ($6400FD/$4800DK), but even they are risky. Of note is the first week back for an injured player. Most need to knock the rust off. Don’t let last week spook you off DeSean. Every indicator is there, including NO giving up the most TDs to receivers this season, to use him in some LUs. I mean….these points have to come from somewhere! I’m banking, though, on the forever favorite target of Captain Kirk… one value-priced Jordan Reed ($5800FD/$4600DK). Reed has as good a matchup as he will see all year. The limitation here, honestly, is Cousins.
NO @ WAS Playables: Brees, Ingram, Cooks, Snead, Watson, DeSean, Garcon, Reed
Yup….another damned commercial. Will this Kevin dude ever shut up?
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– The site you registered for and your screen name for that site
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FLAG ON THE PLAY……HOLDING…….STILL SECOND DOWN!
Sunday 4pm…..MIN @ OAK…..OAK -3…..o/u 44
Teddy Bridewater ($6700FD/$5100DK) is not great, but neither is the OAK defense v QBs (#28). Game sets up for them to need to throw a bit. If you use him, I’d be looking at Stefon Diggs ($6600FD/$5100DK) since that dude has burst onto the scene in a big way and Da Raaaiders are also ranked 28 v WRs. All Diggs has done is brought you 4X-5X value in 80% of the weeks he’s played. Discount last week’s STL defense, and you have a ridiculously low priced WR with WR1 potential….both floor and ceiling. Don’t expect Adrian Peterson ($8600FD/$7100DK) to play like he did vs STL. AP has failed to bring value more this year than any other. He’s not a terrible GPP play because we all know what he’s capable of doing, but I can’t trust him at his price for cash. No one else honestly factors in….even Kyle Rudolph. OAK suddenly isn’t the league worst vs TE……the NYG are worse (that comes into play next game.)
On the other hand, we have a legit Raiders team this season with an offense to match. I’m just as shocked as you are, but Derek Carr ($7500FD/$5800DK) has me jealous I didn’t draft him in my season-long leagues. I just wasn’t ready to trust him…..I am now. Yes, MIN is ranked top 10 across the QB, RB, WR board, but Carr has produced. Carr brought 23+ points in 5/7 weeks this season. Latavius Murray ($6700FD/$5700DK) is in concussion protocol. If he can’t go, it looks like things descend into committee here. I’d avoid against MIN for sure. Target hog Michael Crabtree ($6400FD/$5800DK) was a DFS Darling last week and will likely hit his floor this week. His past three weeks have brought at least 6 catches and a TD. I’m just not sure about his ceiling. It’s not 2 TDs. Amari Cooper ($7100FD/$6800DK) has a sick ceiling, but he has floor trouble. Like young receivers do, he seems to bounce from 8 pts to 20 pts to 9 pts to 27 pts. That screams GPP play only. If you don’t know who plays TE for the Raiders, don’t worry…..you aren’t missing much.
MIN @ OAK Playables: Bridgewater, Peterson, Diggs, Carr, Latavius?, Cooper, Crabtree
Sunday 430pm…..NE @ NYG…..NE -7…..o/u 54.5!
This is the highest point total I’ve seen yet this year. Fantasy goodness abounds here. We know the G-men are practically allergic to defense ranking in the bottom 10 in all but the RB category where they narrowly miss the complete shit sweep. But, NE has been vulnerable, too. It’s just a matter of if the Giants can do something outside of garbage time….which should be coming.
The main issue with the Patriots is what to do now that Dion Lewis is gone. Does LaGarret Blount ($6900FD/$4900DK) step in and become a true 3-down back? Not in my opinion. I’m looking at James White (n/a FD/$3000DK)….but watch for him to appear on FD later in the week. He is league minimum in salary and was a healthy scratch last week practically taking him off the radar (I believe that was why Jonas Gray came out of nowhere, too….). White also handled the pass-catching responsibilities in week 7 when Dion had to sit with his abdominal issues. White is, however, the only cheap option you will find on this roster. So much so, they are almost unplayable since I can find about 3-4 other better values at positions where I don’t wonder who is going to get the targets and touches. Tom Brady ($9100FD/$8600DK) has a price tag that would make Bloomingdales cringe. Our favorite Rob Gronkowski ($8000FD/$8000DK) is priced as a WR1 but not producing like he should. Julian Edelman ($8000FD/$8200DK) has found more of the endzone than ever and his price tag reflects it. It’s just going to be tough to put many in your LUs. Your cheap exposures are going to be Blount, White, and perhaps Brandon LaFell ($6200FD/$4100DK) if you think he will see enough targets to be relevant. Someone is going to have a great day. It’s just going to be tough to pick the right player. I’d almost rather let the recreational players try while I search out value elsewhere and watch them miss repeatedly.
Eli Manning ($7400FD/$6700DK) is in for some serious trash pick-ups this week. But, which Eli will it be? Crafty Eli, Skinny Legged Eli, Too Short Eli, or any of the other characters from DirectTV I just incorrectly attached to him? His point totals his last 4 weeks read like 14, 41, 6, and 11. I mean seriously……anyone wanting a piece of that? He can hit the 41, but he might also hit the 6. He might also feed the Patriots defense like antelope to lions. The committee monster RB corps in NYG isn’t worth rostering. O’Dell Beckham Jr ($8800FD/$8800DK) should feast while the trash rolls down the street, but you’re going to pay a pretty penny for it. Reuben Randle ($5700FD/$3900DK) may see some action, and Dwayne Harris ($5100FD/$3600DK) may be worth a dart throw. But, both have largely disappointed when given chances.
NE @ NYG Playables: Brady, Blount, White, Edelman, Gronk, LaFell, NE D, Eli, OBJ, Harris
Sunday 430pm…..KC @ DEN…..DEN -6.5…..o/u 42
A rather dyslexic performance from the Broncos may lead to some low ownership this week in a game they should control at home. What do we say about being favored at home, outdoors, facing bad offense, and low total? Yup…..fire up that Bronco DST!
Alex Smith ($6000FD/$5000DK) is just an enigma (I wanted to say pain in my ass). He says he realizes he needs to take shots, but he just doesn’t. Andy Reid puts me on monkey tilt by refusing to maximize Travis Kelce ($5800FD/$4800DK). Baby Gronk is just a matchup nightmare, and DEN isn’t really attackable, but this would be the place if they were. If there is garbage time Jeremy Maclin ($6500FD/$5500DK) figures to be involved, too. These are the only relevant players in my mind. Yes, Charcandrick West ($6400FD/$4800DK) has put together back to back solid weeks and his price is low, but going against DEN? I’d rather grab popcorn and watch than put my money on it going well for him to the tune of another 20 pts. I’m fading any and all red helmets in this one.
Peyton Manning ($7700FD/$6200DK) had a nice game a couple weeks back, but just isn’t himself. Call it age, call it Kubiak, but fact is he’s just not the auto-play we are used to. The RB committee of CJ Anderson ($5900FD/$3800DK) and Ronnie Hillman ($5900FD/$4000DK) will see their work, but good luck convincing me of one over the other, especially against a KC defense ranking nearly in the top 10 vs RBs. The targets have found both DeMaryius Thomas ($7900FD/$7400DK) and Emmanuel Sanders ($7800FD/$7300DK) this season, but DThom has dropped more balls than a drunken juggler. This has made Manny the WR of choice imo all year. He runs shorter routes from the slot for Noodle Arm Manning and carries a slightly cheaper price tag on about the same targets. They also both have upside. Nice that Owen Daniels ($5100FD/$2800DK) had to go off last week and throw a huge monkey wrench in the works with Vernon Davis ($5100FD/$2500DK) coming over from the 49ers. I’m off both, even with clearance sale prices, until I see proof Kubiak/Peyton like one over the other now.
KC @ DEN Playables: Kelce, Maclin, Sanders
PASS RUSH!….Sidestep these common mistakes and keep your chances alive:
– Using a RB in a known committee in a cash game LU.
– Using two pass-catchers in a LU without stacking them with the team’s QB.
– Using any offensive skill player when you are also rostering their opponent’s defense. (Example using Week 10, playing the Patriots defense and then running an Eli/OBJ stack in the same LU.)
THIRD DOWN!
Sunday 830pm…..ARI @ SEA…..SEA -3…..o/u 45
There is a halfway decent o/u on this game, but there really isn’t a lot of predictable fantasy goodness going around here.
Carson Palmer ($8000FD/$6900DK) has been great this year, but going into Seattle to face a top defense vs QBs? Pretty tall order. Many others I’d take over him at this price. Chris Johnson ($6800FD/$4600DK) and Andre Ellington ($5400FD/$3700DK), of course, form an interesting committee along with the rarely used David Johnson, but the Seahawks are nearly as tough against the run as they are the pass. Larry Fitzgerald ($7400FD/$7400DK) runs the slot and might see some targets, but his age may be catching him at this point of the season. His targets have dropped almost a full 2 targets per game. At the very least, he is regressing towards the mean with yardage and TDs after a white hot start to the year. John Brown ($6100FD/$5500DK) is likely healthy but will probably draw tough cover men. Michael Floyd ($5900FD/$3800DK) has come on of late, but he just runs through that Seattle secondary crossing paths with Richard Sherman or Cam Chancellor too much for my taste.
Russell Wilson ($7600FD/$5900DK) hasn’t been as reliable this year and Arizona is no slouch defensively, either. Marshawn Lynch ($8000FD/$6700DK) should dominate the carries, but the Cardinals are a top 10 DvP to RBs. Jimmy Graham ($6000FD/$4900DK) hasn’t been used (although better lately) enough to justify his price tag, and the WRs in Seattle not named Tyler Lockett ($5200FD/$3000DK) are hardly worth discussing. But, even he is a super deep dart throw GPP play at best.
Running QBs and veteran QBs are just not my favorite targets for finding turnovers. Both DSTs grade out well down the list this week, too. Yuck.
ARI @ SEA Playables: Honestly….none. If I had to….Palmer and that’s about it.
FOURTH DOWN! Time to punt…
One of my favorite tactics to use is The Monday Hammer. I love having a LU going into Monday Night when my QB is still yet to play. I feel like, with a great game, I can make up a lot of ground on the field. Food for thought – Andy Dalton has been very consistent this year and he’s not exactly facing the HOU defense we thought we were going to see 9 weeks ago.
Monday 830pm…..HOU @ CIN…..CIN -10.5…..o/u 47.5
Marcus Mariota ($7300FD/$5300DK) beasted last week with by FAR his best output of the season. However, his last 4 weeks read like this 36, 9, 11, and 24. Not exactly the model of consistency. This week, he faces a fairly decent Bengals defense rating #8 vs QBs. Another RB committee not worth mentioning when they are expected to be trailing heavily in this one. If anything is going to happen, it may be late and it may be through the air. It’s a decent “if,” but we have seen it. GPP stacking with DeAndre Hopkins ($8900FD/$8700DK) and/or Nate Washington ($5200FD/$4400DK) isn’t the dumbest thing you could do. Nate provides some nice relief at those prices! Promise me, though, if you do that you don’t worry about your LU until Monday Night’s halftime show because any before that and you just don’t know where you stand using such a big Monday Hammer.
The Red Rifle, Andy Dalton ($8100FD/$6500DK), is quietly putting up a monster season. He has weapons at every turn and Vegas thinks he’ll be using them effectively vs a HOU defense that just hasn’t lived up to the billing this year. The Texans are supposedly the weakest through the air, so I’d be looking at AJ Green ($8300FD/$7600DK), Marvin Jones ($5400FD/$4300DK), and Tyler Eifert ($6200FD/$5800DK) obviously. We all know AJ and The Eifert Tower have multi-TD upside, and Jones has been a nice surprise. Just beware of Eifert and AJ’s floor troubles this season….they aren’t the most consistent players on the planet. This is probably where some scoring will come from. If HOU can’t keep things close through the air themselves, you can likely bring out the two-headed monster of Gio Bernard ($6300FD/$4700DK) and Jeremy Hill ($6600FD/$5300DK) to close things out. This committee of the Bengals most resembles what the Patriots were doing with Gio providing the shake’n’bake while Hill just kicks everyone out of the bar at closing time. Last week, though, that got flipped on it’s head a bit vs CLE. So, buyer beware. Gameflow suggests they will be used. Just hope you pick the right one.
HOU @ CIN Playables: Mariota, DHop, Nasty Nate, Andy Candy, Gio, Hill, AJ, Jones, Eifert
POST GAME WRAP!
I want to thank Kevin for the opportunity to fill in for him while on vacation. I hope he had as much time on his foo-foo dolphin trip as I did drinking……errr writing this blog. I have no designs on the fact anyone sticks around to listen to the post-game show, but just in case…
The website Kevin mentioned last week has been launched and is officially in Beta. We would like to invite any active VIP Members of the DFS Army that haven’t to jump in and get loud. I can personally attest to Kevin’s activity in both Slack Chat and the website forums. The access you gain to not only him, but some very knowledgeable members, is worth more than any subscription price you might have invested. I know I am a better DFS player because of them.
Finally, a last word from Kevin:
If you have an Android phone, check out our FREE Daily Fantasy Football Advisor app in the Play Store. It has all the content from this website plus some extras like must-follow twitter feeds and a separate area for our DFS strategy vault. I will occasionally send out a player update note via the APP as well since it is the fastest way to reach most of the readers here. Most importantly, if you do get the app please leave us a nice review in the Play Store! I read them all and appreciate them. You can also check out and like our Facebook Page.
That’s it for The Geek’s Vegas Lines Analysis and Player Picks column this week. DFS Army VIP Members can expect a newsletter post mid-week with specific player picks for Fanduel and Draftkings with recommended stacks and ALL IN plays split between Cash, GPP or Both. In addition, I will include some cash optimized lineup samples for both Fanduel and Draftkings. You can use those as is or ideally take the samples and make some swaps to make them your own. If you haven’t joined our premium membership plan you might want to consider doing so now. It’s FREE for new referrals to Draftkings, Fanduel and now Draftpot or just $40 for the season if you are an existing player. Remember to hit me up on Twitter @ffootballgeek or via email [email protected]
Good luck in Week 10!